Optimism and potential, the two words that fit in nicely when looking at the models in there extended range (max 14 days) and that stands no matter the season.
Anything after that, is pure guess work, and well before on many occasions, and at this time of year throw a 'random' hurricane into the North Atlantic , and this will mess up and over ride the back ground 'signals' and all that tele stuff.
Too many variables at play at any one time, yes it's fun to guess the longer outlook, but guessing is all it is.