Looking back the GFS 12z of 25 January was the first to show this amplification, but for 5th February, not the 6th. Just one day different. No one thought it credible, and it still may not be.
but the odds have changed substantially.
Unusually the early morning snow left us at modest elevation with more of a covering than there was on the upper slopes of Ingleborough across the valley. 4th day with snow falling this winter, 14th with lying snow.
Here on Burn Moor we missed the heavy snow across the valley from Ingleborough northwards and got heavy rain. So it was a surprise this morning to find the ground dry and frozen. With the wind chill it felt colder than last week's minus 11. Dusting of snow now but turning to freezing rain. Snowman still alive but has lost his head.