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SteveB

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Everything posted by SteveB

  1. Only the ultra hard-core snow lovers are clinging onto the hope for a Winter like the ones we used to get pre 1980's. Western Europe is locked into a perennial spell of mild Winters, and the stats back it up. Yes there will be the odd cold spell, but they are becoming shorter and few and far between. What I don't get, is why do the models have a proper cold spell in the far reaches of FI, and bring in forward right down to T120 or even T90 and then start to water it down to a two day cold spell or nothing at all. I thought the models programme in these failures and learn from them on future runs. It happened a fair few times last Winter and the one before that. This year I would like to think the models and the programmer's have learnt something.
  2. Agree! This year I'm focusing on how warm and wet it's going to get, rather than chase fantasy BFTE or polar lows that never happen, but are continually shown in the far reaches of FI.
  3. In my little part of the world, snow is a very rare thing indeed. 2009 and 2018 aside, every other winter has either been snowless or the odd day where snow has been falling but not settling or settling but gone within a few hours. I could probably count on two hands the amount of times that's happened over the last 13yrs. Frosts seem to come later in the Winter, and some of the frostiest times are Feb/March time. Gone are the days of frontal snow. Last time was the early 80's I can't see anything changing soon, infact probably even less snow and frost is the most probable outcome.
  4. Agree it won't persist forever, but it might persist for a lifetime.
  5. I agree with all you say, but...... we haven't had a below average month this year, we are nearly into November and looking at almost record breaking high temps for the time of year. It would be some turnaround and at the best time of year, to flip the above average temps to below average temps. Maybe I've had my fingers burnt far to many time over the last several Winters looking at the models to believe any of them when they show blocked cold synoptic. Until I see snow falling outside my window, nothing the models say or show will make me think cold is on the way. I'll be looking out for record warm temps this Winter, and satisfy my weather interest in that, rather than chase fantasy beasts from the East.
  6. A mild or even warm Winter really is the form horse. Hand on heart, can you see anything else other than that this year?
  7. It's fantastic to see everywhere else in the Northern hemisphere do well.
  8. I love your optimism, however, there is no escaping the fact that we are breaking more warm records than cold. And doesn't seem to be changing anytime soon. While the rest of the Northern hemisphere can still get cold and snowy Winters, even record breaking cold Winters. The UK and indeed Western Europe seem to be stuck in a perpetual mild/warm pattern. I fear the same thing happening this Winter as it did in Summer, high temperature records being broken. I love this thread, because it allows me to see what cold and snowy weather looks like, while sitting here at home admiring the warm Autumn weather.
  9. Unfortunately I have to agree with you. Something must be very wrong, if at the beginning of the Winter season, I'm wondering if I'll see any snow at all this season. We live in depressing times in an equally depressing Country if it's snow and cold you like.
  10. Nice little storm just rumbled on through. Best storm for a long while, and incredibly the second one of the year.
  11. Don't really want anymore warmth. The cool misty dry chilly part sounds better.
  12. I wouldn't bother even venturing anywhere near Weston - I don't think we will see anything, continuing on with the same theme as it has been all year..... no storms! Hardly got any rain last night, let alone storms! It's been poor.
  13. Everything! Success rate for predicted thunderstorms to what has materialised has been 0% this year...... come to think of it...... most of the last several years! I'll hold my breath, this week does look promising on most days - surely Weston can get an overhead storm?
  14. Hi MIA, Must be near the time of year, to start up your Artic sea ice reports?
  15. I'm have a shocker here. The rain and associated storm has alm but fizzled out. Yet 5-10miles East and 20mins ago it was biblical. It must be something to do with being near the coast. I don't remember it being like this 10-20yrs ago though, something has changed but I don't know what! I've had 1.8mm here in Weston-super-Mare, but the storm up near Ashton in Bristol must gave delivered plenty more.
  16. Under it at work in Ashton - no thunder of lightning. And the stuff further south has lost any electrical activity.
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