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Smiler1709

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Posts posted by Smiler1709

  1. Been so busy last few days I haven't had much time to check the mods, what I can see is lots of potential and many days of cold biting winds with dine experiencing some good snowfall and the rest some decent hard frosts. Positives are this winter has blitzed last winters performance and even though not one single snow flake has fallen here I'm happy that it's been abit more seasonal. I'm keeping my expectations low with this current spell forecast due to being abit disappointed with the last cold spell. Hopefully I'm surprised. People seriously need to just relax in regards to upper temps, snow falling areas and how long thus lasts because otherwise your drive yourself mad. Hope everyone is well.

    • Like 3
  2. It's apparent that the models underplayed the power of the jet and as we get closer in time to this cold snap the models will firm up on finer details, one of which is the jet stream which powers our weather. We have I say at best a 5-7 day cold/cool spell with night frosts but any precipitation will be rain away from high ground and the north. We could still get an upgrade but the high pressure just gets flattened to quickly. Until we have some decent blocking to our north then low pressure will just crush any chance of deep cold.

    • Like 1
  3. Horrible downgrades this morning for Midlands south, hopefully the models don't water all this down to wet icy dross. It just shows that were far from certain to have a good cold spell, last nights easterly on the ECM has all but disapeared and the 850 uppers have retreated back east.

    Lots of wintry weather for the North again but for us southerners, if it plays out this way then I for one will not be excited about rain interspersed with frosts and ice. Basically it will be like living in the Falklands which for who that have never been its the most depressing place on the planet, cold, wet and windy.

    Fingers crossed for a few upgrades again but I'm not holding my breath.

    • Like 1
  4. We COULD be on the cusp of something amazing here, models are still trying to firm up on what's coming and there's still scope for upgrades, especially as the weather fronts get closer. A few GEFS have a part of the vortex dropping into scandi only for the Atlantic to attack which doesn't go to plan and the system could easily slip throught France bringing us another reload of easterlys, and with the pv being in scandi the temps would be crazy cold if we developed another easterly.

    Obviously I'm only speculating on what might happen but this really could develop into a classic...........or it could go T.I.T.S up, we all get let down and go back into the zonal train lol.

    Fingers crossed we all get what we deserve

    • Like 1
  5. As stated by others on here, I wouldn't worry about where snow will fall, let's get this cold in and entrenched then let the fun begin. I'd be surprised if all of us didn't see at least some falling snow if the models come true. But I'm still very cautious, gfs 12z was very quick to kill the cold and the others could easily follow in the coming days. Just enjoy what there churning out ATM then wait and see

    • Like 1
  6. As usual another fantastic calming post by Tamara!!.Lets not get fixated with just one run.I know it is frustrating but as others have said it is what it is when the vast majority on here are after the Holy Grail of snow and cold. Sit back, grab a beer and enjoy the evening !!.The general trends are good and the best we have seen for 2 winters!!

    Completely agree, maybe the old gfs wants to go out on a sour note and let us down just one last time

    • Like 5
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