Smiler1709

Boring boring boring, spring baby that's what I want. Been a glorious sunny day and beautifully calm. Winter never arrived Down here and I never got into the ridiculous ramping of cold north westerlys. Looking for high pressure now so come on Azores get your act together.

What's peoples thinking then? Is winter drawing it's curtains with maybe a couple if brief colder incursions to come? Must say I've loved the weather last couple of days, I'm sorry if this annoys people but I'm now looking for high pressure for dry and calm conditions. I'm gonna stick winter away till November

Lovely high pressure showing on the mods. As stated straw clutching at there finest on the mod thread.

Seriously some of you need to get down here if you wanna see what a crap winter is lol, we struggle to get frost in the mist potent wintry spells. Enjoy what you got.

Raging vortex slap bang in the place we don't want it.

I think the concerning thing is that the gfs has picked up a new trend for next week to flatten that high and bring the Atlantic back. Whether it's FI or not the ensembles have been hinting this. But the good news is that in the reliable it's looking nice and cold with rain/sleet and snow, proberly nothing for my area but no change there.

Out to t204 well out of realistic timeframe but the high is dropping South shutting off the cold feed, something the ensembles are hinting at

Been so busy last few days I haven't had much time to check the mods, what I can see is lots of potential and many days of cold biting winds with dine experiencing some good snowfall and the rest some decent hard frosts. Positives are this winter has blitzed last winters performance and even though not one single snow flake has fallen here I'm happy that it's been abit more seasonal. I'm keeping my expectations low with this current spell forecast due to being abit disappointed with the last cold spell. Hopefully I'm surprised. People seriously need to just relax in regards to upper temps, snow falling areas and how long thus lasts because otherwise your drive yourself mad. Hope everyone is well.

The Phraise from the film Saw, pretty much sums up our winter and the prospects of any sustained cold...........GAME OVER

Nice report Gibby, my thoughts exactly regarding enjoying it while it's here, we only have frost but I'm happy. I think whats evident is that the models are firming up on bring cool/mild weather back to our shores by midweek, but with all if feb to play for and a nice cold pool to our right hopefully we can just have one good easterly before winter ends.

I think the models are having a mare with his to deal with this cold situation, think we're gonna have to wait another 48 hours before the details get ironed out. Shame about the downgrades but still plenty to play for. New day tomorrow and a new set of runs.

Nice shift east on the 12z gfs, this spell is turning into a snap and not before long it will be down to a pop.

It's apparent that the models underplayed the power of the jet and as we get closer in time to this cold snap the models will firm up on finer details, one of which is the jet stream which powers our weather. We have I say at best a 5-7 day cold/cool spell with night frosts but any precipitation will be rain away from high ground and the north. We could still get an upgrade but the high pressure just gets flattened to quickly. Until we have some decent blocking to our north then low pressure will just crush any chance of deep cold.

I think some people in the mod thread are in denial, it's quite easy to see that the models have picked up a new trend and that is for this cold spell to turn into a damp cool spell then back to mild. Never believed it to come good anyway. Bring on spring and summer I say. Would of been nice for abit of snow though.

At last something for us southerners if this verifys......... Please please please

What time does the gfs 6z start rolling out please anyone?

Horrible downgrades this morning for Midlands south, hopefully the models don't water all this down to wet icy dross. It just shows that were far from certain to have a good cold spell, last nights easterly on the ECM has all but disapeared and the 850 uppers have retreated back east. Lots of wintry weather for the North again but for us southerners, if it plays out this way then I for one will not be excited about rain interspersed with frosts and ice. Basically it will be like living in the Falklands which for who that have never been its the most depressing place on the planet, cold, wet and windy. Fingers crossed for a few upgrades again but I'm not holding my breath.

We COULD be on the cusp of something amazing here, models are still trying to firm up on what's coming and there's still scope for upgrades, especially as the weather fronts get closer. A few GEFS have a part of the vortex dropping into scandi only for the Atlantic to attack which doesn't go to plan and the system could easily slip throught France bringing us another reload of easterlys, and with the pv being in scandi the temps would be crazy cold if we developed another easterly. Obviously I'm only speculating on what might happen but this really could develop into a classic...........or it could go T.I.T.S up, we all get let down and go back into the zonal train lol. Fingers crossed we all get what we deserve

Crossing my fingers that these sliders push west in further runs, sadly us below London are still at a minimum for snow but things could change nearer the time. Loving the models this evening.

Only snow for Midlands north, us in the south would continue with the theme of cold rain

As stated by others on here, I wouldn't worry about where snow will fall, let's get this cold in and entrenched then let the fun begin. I'd be surprised if all of us didn't see at least some falling snow if the models come true. But I'm still very cautious, gfs 12z was very quick to kill the cold and the others could easily follow in the coming days. Just enjoy what there churning out ATM then wait and see

So the big question is..... Has the gfs 12z picked up a new trend or is it going in the bin to await more runs?

Completely agree, maybe the old gfs wants to go out on a sour note and let us down just one last time

If these current outputs verify then what are the chances on snow on the south Coast, desperate for my 2 year old to see some of the White stuff, any info would be much appreciated.