Smiler1709
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Posts posted by Smiler1709
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9 minutes ago, Dean E said:
Cannot agree with you on a zonal outlook. While we get a slight influence from the Atlantic this weekend, with slightly milder uppers moving around the top of the block, there is really no sign of anything like a Atlantic driven pattern.
The Atlantic is likely to be blocked for sometime, it just depends where.
Sorry but you can clearly see the Atlantic having a influence on the position of the high pressure, if heights were lower in the med then it could slide under and prop the high up but that isn't the case. High pressure remains in the med so the low pressure systems just steam roller over our high.
Not saying that won't bring snow or cold conditions because it is coming in from a more northwest angle but these type of set ups are fleeting moments of cold followed by longer periods of milder and wet conditions. Only saying what I can see.
At least we have we have all winter to get something special ?
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Was looking at the cfs a week or so back when all the excitement started with blocking to our north and continued N/NE/E winds showing up on the gfs etc, but the cfs was having none of it. Always showed the high pressure toppling with strong mild SW winds winning through.
i didn't comment because I know the cfs is normally laughed at but I think it's played a blinder here. Our cold spell/snap has been slowly watered down to a brief northerly then back into zonal Atlantic driven weather. I always get a buzz seeing cold charts pop up but in reality the last few years us coldies have had some proper let downs.
really hope the ecm shows something against the grain otherwise I think we're starring down the barrel.
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:
It's only 15 days away
Would could possibly go wrong
Story of the winter there mate, horrid to forecast and do disappointing to get really good charts only for them to be water down or completely flip when the time gets nearer. I believe this is our last cold snap for the winter albeit a few frosty nights.
Really disappointed but that's the draw back with living in the U.K. The mid latitude block has absolutely battered our severe cold hopes this season hopefully it's the form horse going into summer.
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Looking forward to seeing some warmer charts and light winds so I can get out on the boat and get some much needed fishing in, really can't be fussed with this up and coming cold blip more interested in the hunt for the Azores high. Very frustrating winter but the reality is the climate is warming and prolonged cold and snow are a thing of the past. Some in the model thread literally live there lives in the hunt for snow yet are disappointed 99% of the time. If they want cold and snow then migrate to Siberia.
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Breakdown coming at 300+ but that's all pointless and will change, main theme being that we're going in the freezer and once it becomes established these can be very differcult to budge. Good run
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This is a bitterly cold run from the 6z gfs, southern half of the uk having ice days with the odd snow shower thrown in.
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Can anyone tell me if that ecm 192 chart verifies would it bring snow?
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Lmao you have to laugh at the recent model watching drama!! We've gone from narnia to the book of eli in the space of 48 hours. Not great for cold and snow now but with Jan and Feb left there's plenty of time for some white stuff.
In the mean time have a good new year everyone. All the best for 2017
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Very impressed with the Ukmo it stuck to its guns for the last 24-36 hours and it seems the other models are following suite.
That gfs 6z the other day really did no favours for the coldies in here. It was a biblical run which heightened our expectations markedly. Sadly the adjustments have been made and it's watered the cold down.
At at least it's gonna be cold though
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A different set up to 6z but after seeing the 12z a change to colder condition is likely, how cold and how long it lasts for is the question.
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Gfs was a thing of beauty, most likely the best model run I've seen since taking a interest in model watching. The best thing about it was is that the real cold isnt only in FI it really starts at 200+ hours. Obviously 12z will water it down or maybe change it completely but it would be nice to see the trend continue, and if it somehow upgrades then I fear this place with have a meltdown. Fingers crossed this actually happens
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Wore a t shirt all day yesterday, very much like last December except with little rain. Looking ahead and things look bleak for the rest of December. Hopefully Jan will give us coldies hope
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1 hour ago, bobbydog said:
Yep.
And i'lI raise you a 1065mb on the parallel.....!
Funny thing is, the cfs model has shown on a few occasions this possibility going into Christmas week. Maybe just maybe it could be in to something
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Again the gfs throws out a little interest mid month, I'm sticking to my guns and saying mid month cold will return. Let's get the mild stuff out the way before xmas and let the party begin to really get us in the spirits.
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I came, I saw, I went lol
not the best of model runs. Return to mild and rubbish just doesn't do it for me.
time for a break, see you all in 5-6 days. Fingers crossed it's better.
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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:
So is he saying blocked pattern mid December onwards.
Yes but with low confidence
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Wish the terms could be 1962 would stop popping up, we have to face facts that were in a mild cycle of winters. Not saying this one will be mild although it's starting to point that way. I'm still optimistic that we will see a cold spell this side of the new year and models change like the weather (excuse the pun) we could be looking at something completely different this time next week.
Currently though it does favour a return of the south westerlys but al least no sign of a rain and wind onslaught. That's the silver lining and hopefully the people that we're flooded last year can enjoy a nice dry xmas this year.
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We're now seeing this mild stage come into focus but we're also seeing a trend in the ensembles for it to turn colder mid month. Still very much on track with what the BBC had to say last week. They said it will most likely turn mild for a time come the start of december, but gradually turn colder. I'm confident that come 7th-10th December we're start to see these changes in the op runs. Happy first day of winter people
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To be fair the BBC have indicated a few times that after this week ahead of dry frosty weather, we are likely to see mild temperatures. But they also indicate that the cold will return eventually around mid month. that could change but at least the current models are painting that picture.
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I'm no expert but the models seem to really be struggling to cope with what's happening in the atmosphere. Wild swings from mild to cold has turned us all inside out.
longer term outlook still looks good and I truely believe we could be in for a big shock, with a sudden model output picking up a trend in the reliable time frame which puts us in the freezer. Call me mad but I've never witnessed such differences with each run.
I for one can feel a difference between last winter and this winter mainly due to the low rainfall amounts and calmer days. Big things are round the corner and my money is on mid December.
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11 minutes ago, weirpig said:
And yet again the yanks get the cold seriously chilly weather
I'd happily take uppers of -4 to -8 compared to last years rubbish, plus the deep cold is actually stored up for Canada. All pointless though as that chart will change by the next run
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I have a feeling we're gonna be left in no mans land for the majority of winter, nothing majorly cold, quiet Atlantic and awsome charts in FI that tease us all winter but never materialise. People expectations this season seem high especially given the back ground signals but stay grounded because I think there will be disappointment come spring especially down near my neck of the woods.
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Got a nagging feeling that with all the background symbols were still gonna end up with a bang average winter. Really hope I'm wrong
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Best snow event for my neck of the woods was December 1st 2010, snowed from about 3pm right through to the following morning, remember getting the wife, kids and dogs out at 11pm knowing there would be no school next day, we built a huge snowman and went round nans to make sure she had everything, and heating was ok. About 8 inches fell and it was awesome. As Steve mentioned above, channel lows with a nice Scandinavian high do the trick. Fingers crossed we get something like that this year. Hope everyone is well.
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GFS showing some proper blocking at the end of the run, and it's now consistently modelled a Scandinavian high at the end of its runs. Really think something might be brewing and just in time for the festive celebrations ?