andy_leics22

The 06z looks as flat as a pancake! I know the models are all over the shop at the moment but the consistency of the GFS in the last few runs cannot be ignored. In my opinion i think the other models eill now start to fall in line with what the GFS is predicting. I expect by tomorrow afternoon we will have agreement across the models on a return to zonal weather by wednesday next week.

Hmmm, i personally think the output this morning is quite disheartening. The ECM is no where near as good as its 12z output yesterday and the GFS is a stinker. The only positive i can really find this morning is that the UKMO still looks good. I expect the UKMO to backtrack towards the GFS and ECM on the 12z though.

12z NOGAPS is MASSIVELY better than it's 00z output! They are like chalk and cheese 00z... 12...

Tonight's ECM is probably going to be one of the most anticipated model runs ever! The UKMO looks good, the 12z GFS looks average but a lot better than the 06z run. The other important runs to look out for will be the 12z BOM model run and the GEM 12z run. Both of those showed stonking runs on their 00z's So if they follow on with their 00z theme then we could be in business. Just a little off-topic mention here... I went Aldi earlier and they had snow shovels for sale outside the entrance that weren't there 2 weeks ago, coincidence?

Well, it prolongs the cold snap for the foreseeable future but it doesn't look like it'll be a very exciting run in the medium term. Better than the 06z though by a long way so it's progress!

BINGO! 12z brushes the 06z run off like the bad penny it was 12z... 06z... Miles apart, thankfully!

*tears hair out* Damn you 06z Gfs!!! I worried that this might happen. I think it may just be a mild outlier after t144 but i'm not confident about that. If the 12z ECM sticks to its guns then it will be a little more promising. At this stage though it could swing either way, If the 06z gfs run turns out to be correct... We will have gone from what seemed like a prolonged cold spell to a 2 day cold snap!

I haven't posted on here for a few weeks, been checking the model runs every few days and at the moment, they are absolutely hideous for cold and snow lovers! I hope january and february show signs of turning a lot colder. the ensembles make for bad viewing at the moment!

It's as flat as a pancake though

the t150 chart literally puts the UK slap bang in the middle of it! The 12z is an improvement over the 06z for cold/snow lovers but i'll be interested to see what the 12z ensembles look like.

Time to get the prozac out, that shortwave is going to deliver the knockout punch...

I agree, if the GFS and ECM stick to their guns, the UKMO has to back down eventually. Today's 12z run could possibly be a back track we see from the UKMO. I hope it isn't but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. I love snow like many others do on here, but sometimes you have to be realistic, even though the GFS has known to swing wildly after t144, it's usually a very solid model between t0 and t96.

I don't expect any big changes in today's 12z run, there will most likely be differences between the main models but I can't see there being a surprise big swing either way. I wouldn't be surprised to see quite big changes later in the GFS 12z run, after t144...There is just way too much zonal going on in the GFS 06z run for me, doesn't seem realistic. Between t0 and t144 though, not much change I reckon. Let's be honest though, non of us really know what the Weather will be by the start of next week, we all have our own ideas but we are in the hands of the gods so to speak. So whatever the outcome is, don't get annoyed!

That is a massive difference between the UKMO and ECM at t144! Don't the UKMO use both their own model and the ECM to make forecasts? Must be giving them a right headache at the moment! I'm surprised just how different both models are at t144. Hopefully someone will save those pictures and post them here again at the end of the week to see what the outcome actually was, I might do that myself.

LOL, apologies for that, just looked at the Wetterzentrale version of the 06z run, that'll teach me to look at it on Meteociel! I normally look at the Wetterzentrale version, I think the Meteociel one lulled me into thinking it was going to end up like the ECM. The 06z run doesn't look too shabby at the moment actually.

I know it's normally a model watching sin to comment on the run before it's finished, but this is slightly worrying... GFS 06z looking very similiar to the 00z ECM in terms of how quick the block will fall.

Hands up who said "Noooooooooooooooo" inside their head when they saw the ECM this morning. I can't be the only one! This potential cold snap really is proving difficult to nail down, so much flip flopping from all the models. UKMO t144 looks good but the difference between the UKMO and ECM for t144 is a fair bit different. Especially for how the cold spell would pan out.. UKMO ECM

Hey guys, just wondering how bad it is with the floods down Bristol/Swindon/Wiltshire way? My Girlfriend is down there for the Weekend staying with some friends and will be driving back tomorrow afternoon. Hoping that she gets back to Leicester safely!

Same here Mack, been chucking it down for a good 30 mins now, had around 20mm since midday as well, from Tuesday's rain, Thursday's rain and today's and tonight's rain, we have had altogether around 70mm of rain in those 3 events. Can see some major flooding even around Leicester and Leicester doesn't normally get much in the way of flooding.

Was that when areas around Bristol/Wiltshire had a surprise couple of inches of snow which weren't even forecast? Hope it goes well for you down there me old mucka! I hope what the UKMO and ECM are showing on the 12z run today will come off, it would be a lovely Wintry start to December.

It will, the rain is moving North/North Eastwards. Looking forward to seeing that hit Leicester in about an hour, looks really heavy, even some 50mm an hour bursts in it! Just realized... You've moved to Wiltshire?? But that means when snow is on the way this Winter.. We can't share the excitement with you for the Midlands region!

Just had a look at the models... The pick of the lot looks to be the UKMO, this chart for t144 is beautiful

Good evening everyone, just got back home after seeing Leicester beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 up at Sheffield. It was a bitterly cold day, the rain started around 3:30pm and was heavy all the way through till 6:30pm when we left Sheffield. Driving back down the M1 was horrible, so much spray and poor visability. The rain has just stopped here in Leicester but looking at the radar, another heavy blob is heading this way! Not had a look at the model runs today yet for next week, i'll go and have a look now...

Cheers Bish good to see you and the regulars back here too! Looking at the latest charts, I think more flooding is a real issue, I mentioned it earlier but with all the rain that has fell in the past week in the Midlands, this extra load of rain for Saturday into Sunday and again on Monday-Wednesday looks quite alarming. At the moment it looks like the whole of the Midlands will see another 15-20mm+ of rain tomorrow night into Sunday and at the moment the models are showing a very prolonged period of rain that is forecast to just hang around over the Midlands from Monday till Wednesday, that could well add another 20mm+ on top, the ground is saturated enough as it is! By Wednesday we could be looking at quite widespread disruption from flooding.

Ahh, well i'm glad you've gone into a venture that seems to suit you Haha, well I wouldn't expect any decent snow potential until the 1st of December at the earliest, we'll see if it can be prolonged or not. Thanks Lets hope we do end up having sustained blocking for weeks so that the cold Weather can still be here for Christmas! Hopefully you will be coming back to a snowy Midlands!