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Everything posted by andy_leics22
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
andy_leics22 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed! For both the ECM and GFS to be in agreement at this stage is good. We've seen it so many times over the years where the GFS has gone for a beast from the east set up at only a week away and the ECM hasn't been in agreement. Usually the GFS then backtracks to be in line with the ECM. So far though, they are both going for the same scenario of a Greenland high. Of course this could change on both models, so caution is needed. I think if they are both in agreement for that at T114, that's when the excitement will really ramp up -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
andy_leics22 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't worry about not being able to interpret charts. I remember when I first joined this forum in 2004, as a spotty 16 year old and I had no clue about how to read Weather models. I have learned so much from people on here over the years and now i'm able to look at the charts and know what everything means. My family regularly come to me for an accurate forecast because of my 'Weather geek' tendencies, as my girlfriend likes to call them I know us cold and snow lovers can't get ahead of ourselves with recent developments, BUT, it is looking very promising at the moment for established cold around 10 days time. As many of the regulars on here know, once you have the cold air over the UK, things can change very quickly in terms of precipitation, troughs etc... that the models don't pick up on until only a couple of days away. Having a solid Greenland high will be the first step to a potentially snowy scene for many of us -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
andy_leics22 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What do we have developing here then! The holy grail of a Greenland high! I know it's still very much in F.I territory, but the signs of one developing have been there for the past few days. The ECM is also on board with the GFS on it, which is promising -
I think that's very possible. It rained here all day yesterday, most of the night and it's chucking it down now. More rain is forecast for tonight, tomorrow and most of this week, so I think we could see a lot of flooding in the Midlands. I noticed the brook near me was close to flooding this morning on my way to work, that will probably be flooded by the time I get home tonight.
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Just got back home to Ratby. Had to take a trip down to Northampton to pick up some paperwork from my old job. I was surprised by how little snow there was down there when I arrived at midday. Didn't see any lying snow at all. On the way back this afternoon, it was nearly all gone in Market Harborough and Leicester City Centre. Got home to Ratby and we still have a lot of lying snow left. Only areas that don't are roads and pavements that have seen the sun. Shaded areas have loads left. This was my back garden 5 minutes ago...
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I'm on the bus near Market Harborough and despite the radar saying everything cleared here about an hour ago, there are still flurries blowing around. Not amounting to anything but nice to see. Bugbrooke brethren I'm glad i've moved back to Leicester, to be honest. Upton was alright but Northampton town centre was an absolute dive.