Ross Andrew Hemphill

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When is the next update from NHC?

EWRC underway?

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1167441045560287232?s=21

First signs of instability here in West Central Scotland, with a fairly strong breeze and temps of 28°C

A few forecasts showing severe weather in Scotland, others not. Who do I believe? really dying for all this potential to be put to use

39.3°C in Kent

Didn’t realise we lived so close Mr Frost, that rain was horrendous last night but quite nice at the same time! Anyway, the models give Western Scotland a high of 26C on Tuesday and Thursday which is really good for this area, along with some big thunderstorms in between!! If we do break the record(s) in the South it would be incredible, but at the same time I worry about a lot of people who really can’t deal with the heat and especially the humidity, so please stay safe everyone and enjoy the crazy ride! ️ Crazy that the models usually backtrack or push the heat West, not this time...

Landfall confirmed??

850hpa is around 1500 metres above sea level

GFS 18z has the plume furthest west

37.7C North London, Saturday 29th June.

That’s definitely the furthest North it’s been so far on the models, we’ll see if the GFS backtracks further in the next hour

Talk about slack pressure! What effect would this have regarding storms?

The low is ever so slightly further west at +42 on the GFS, and a little weaker

20C isotherm into the North of Scotland! Surely that’s a record

Storm risk is more widespread due to the low being a bit further east. Heat is more widespread too, approaching 30°C in Western Scotland and parts of Western England

If this is what the models are showing in June, what’re the plumes gonna look like in August!!

20C isotherm into Scotland in this run??

25.7C in Kent

Looks like an Azores ridge reload pattern, not bad if you’re wanting some early spring weather especially in the South

The heat is on its way winter is over!!

Went from a snow event in Scotland to a snow event in Wales and the Midlands in about two runs, crazy...

Potential for some snow in Scotland this weekend on the GFS 12z, down to about 300m so definitely one to watch in the next few days!

Retrogression