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Ross Andrew Hemphill

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Ross Andrew Hemphill last won the day on July 1 2014

Ross Andrew Hemphill had the most liked content!

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Interests
    Extreme Meteorology, TENNIS!!!
  • Weather Preferences
    Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!

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  1. We *could* see a sudden plunge of cold air across Scandi and NW Russia by this time next week if the GFS is anything to go by, so by then we should see a more significant advance of snow West. We’ll see what happens!
  2. I do rate this highly, more than just the typical advance of snow across Russia/Siberia through October. If we take a look at snowfall across Russia and Scandinavia in the Octobers preceding the colder winters we've had since 2009, there is definitely a trend there regarding Scandinavian snow cover and the weather we experience. For this post I will focus on snow cover charts from 10th October each year, posting three charts dated 10th, 20th, and 31st October to see the extent of snow cover in Scandinavia. Although I said I rate this more highly than the typical advance of snow across Siberia, a RAPID advance coinciding with snow cover in Scandinavia does seem to occur in my opinion (although do correct me if you think otherwise!!). This will also be detailed. 1) October 2009 By this date in 2009 we had a decent amount of snow in Scandi, which stayed put ten days later. This was arguably followed by a rapid advance of snow towards W Russia up to the end of the month that year. Tick? 2) October 2010 10th October had zero(!) snow in Scandinavia, but patches began to appear a few days later. There was no rapid advance in 2010, but snow did appear and stick around above 60N as did the snow in Scandi albeit less impressive than 2009. Tick? A less convincing one maybe but still scope for agreement. 3) October 2012 10th October 2012 again had zero snow in Scandi, away from higher parts of Norway that is, but some did appear before the 20th. Then by the end of the month, we had seen possibly one of the fastest advances of snow on record through Russia and almost all of Scandi too. Another less convincing tick for Scandi but a huge tick for rapid advance. These three genuine cold winters did share common factors of rapid advance of snow cover, at least some snow in Scandi, or a slight combination of both. There are exceptions to the rule of course as October 2013 had similar outcomes but we know what happened that winter! This is also far from an exact science as we know, but there is definitely some sort of link with colder winters here to my untrained amateur eye. Things like la nina, QBO, etc have their own effect in varying capacities in different winters, so it's hard to give definitive answers...
  3. Indicates that Ian is still intensifying, he *could* already be a cat 5??
  4. High is centred a good bit closer to the UK by next weekend on the GFS edit: BIG upgrade in the positioning of the high by T177!!
  5. 12z gives a much cooler airmass across the UK back end of next week into the following week compared to the 6z
  6. Jet profile on the GFS 12z looks slightly different at T72, going through Scotland rather than around it? edit: although it’s overall weaker to my eye across the Atlantic
  7. It’s looking lively next week that’s for sure!! This thread sums it up nicely. Will have to watch the weather like a hawk this week for any change because, as we know, any subtle changes will have a massive difference on who sees what and how severe it is. Friday’s low is especially interesting, will it correct Nwards depending on how deep it is?
  8. I can assure you that people do live in Western Scotland and I’m one of them! Very rare that we get weather like this at the end of August, but don’t fret my friend I’m sure normal service will resume and send the settled weather your way while we sit under cloud and drizzle with little or no moaning from our end! Models are definitely showing this HP sticking around for some time, into mid September possibly? Could be one of the driest starts to autumn on record… but that potential major hurricane is looking quite concerning for the gulf coast, we’ll see how the models play it out in the next 72 hours too
  9. Wonder if she could squeeze major hurricane status before landfall? 110mph forecast at landfall but it wouldn’t take much to push it over the threshold
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