Ross Andrew Hemphill
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Posts posted by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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1.1C and 55mm, thank you!
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We *could* see a sudden plunge of cold air across Scandi and NW Russia by this time next week if the GFS is anything to go by, so by then we should see a more significant advance of snow West. We’ll see what happens!
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On 10/10/2022 at 08:27, damianslaw said:
Always thought snowfall over Scandi is a barometer as well..
I do rate this highly, more than just the typical advance of snow across Russia/Siberia through October.
If we take a look at snowfall across Russia and Scandinavia in the Octobers preceding the colder winters we've had since 2009, there is definitely a trend there regarding Scandinavian snow cover and the weather we experience. For this post I will focus on snow cover charts from 10th October each year, posting three charts dated 10th, 20th, and 31st October to see the extent of snow cover in Scandinavia. Although I said I rate this more highly than the typical advance of snow across Siberia, a RAPID advance coinciding with snow cover in Scandinavia does seem to occur in my opinion (although do correct me if you think otherwise!!). This will also be detailed.
1) October 2009
By this date in 2009 we had a decent amount of snow in Scandi, which stayed put ten days later. This was arguably followed by a rapid advance of snow towards W Russia up to the end of the month that year. Tick?
2) October 2010
10th October had zero(!) snow in Scandinavia, but patches began to appear a few days later. There was no rapid advance in 2010, but snow did appear and stick around above 60N as did the snow in Scandi albeit less impressive than 2009. Tick? A less convincing one maybe but still scope for agreement.
3) October 2012
10th October 2012 again had zero snow in Scandi, away from higher parts of Norway that is, but some did appear before the 20th. Then by the end of the month, we had seen possibly one of the fastest advances of snow on record through Russia and almost all of Scandi too. Another less convincing tick for Scandi but a huge tick for rapid advance.
These three genuine cold winters did share common factors of rapid advance of snow cover, at least some snow in Scandi, or a slight combination of both. There are exceptions to the rule of course as October 2013 had similar outcomes but we know what happened that winter! This is also far from an exact science as we know, but there is definitely some sort of link with colder winters here to my untrained amateur eye. Things like la nina, QBO, etc have their own effect in varying capacities in different winters, so it's hard to give definitive answers...
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17 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:
You can clearly see the lightning wrapping around the eye.
Indicates that Ian is still intensifying, he *could* already be a cat 5??
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High is centred a good bit closer to the UK by next weekend on the GFS
edit: BIG upgrade in the positioning of the high by T177!!
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20 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Your right, probably the strongest set of GFS ensembles and mean so far. Lots more of the ensembles going into the hot category.
Op is on the cooler side of things in the second half of the run as well
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12z gives a much cooler airmass across the UK back end of next week into the following week compared to the 6z
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Jet profile on the GFS 12z looks slightly different at T72, going through Scotland rather than around it?
edit: although it’s overall weaker to my eye across the Atlantic
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It’s looking lively next week that’s for sure!! This thread sums it up nicely. Will have to watch the weather like a hawk this week for any change because, as we know, any subtle changes will have a massive difference on who sees what and how severe it is.
Friday’s low is especially interesting, will it correct Nwards depending on how deep it is?
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On 24/08/2021 at 20:50, Alderc said:Yup high pressure in control probably until about the 9th of Sept by my reckoning, maybe starting to swing towards a sightly more favourable orientation around month end as well but still plenty of cloud and clag for large parts of the population the next few days. It’s all well and good western Scotland reaching 27C but no one lives there - as much use as a snooze button on a smoke alarm
I can assure you that people do live in Western Scotland and I’m one of them! Very rare that we get weather like this at the end of August, but don’t fret my friend I’m sure normal service will resume and send the settled weather your way while we sit under cloud and drizzle with little or no moaning from our end!
Models are definitely showing this HP sticking around for some time, into mid September possibly? Could be one of the driest starts to autumn on record… but that potential major hurricane is looking quite concerning for the gulf coast, we’ll see how the models play it out in the next 72 hours too
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On 21/08/2021 at 17:03, BrickFielder said:
Looks like some enhanced convection in the South East quadrant.
NHC Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 23
Gonna make a good attempt at Cat 2 methinks
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November is late for a Cat 4/5 landfall right??
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Wonder if she could squeeze major hurricane status before landfall? 110mph forecast at landfall but it wouldn’t take much to push it over the threshold
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Updated info is 150-155 MPH.
2MPH under CAT 5....
Will she make it?! Gonna be close
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
The power of Nature...
What the hell, that eye
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Maybe something for me today, fingers crossed
Met Office warning suggests nothing for me anyway next week but lets hope they jinxed themselves!!
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1 hour ago, Zak M said:
Here's something for the die-hard cold lovers...
You might fancy the 12z CFS from yesterday, even if it doesn't come off.
Looks a bit marginal in the south coast, sleet south of the M4
But you know what they say, get the cold in first and the uppers will follow!!
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1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
She looks good for a Cat1!
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This is the best I can do for now
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That is some cell in the SW
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2 minutes ago, Stormhog said:
I wish they'd stop using the term "thundery showers". It's so dismissive and belittling. We could have a countrywide MCS and they'd still call it "thundery showers"!
I second this, it’s so frustrating
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First towers appearing to my south ?
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24 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:
I am loving this severe thunderstorms risk @staplehurst - once again many thanks for putting out a fantastic detailed forecast! Always look forward to it!
Convective Weather
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UKForecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.Coming back to tonight...if anything kicks off later/early hours I will be all over it!
Lovely out there just now - really looking forward to the next 36-48 hours!
All the best everyone!
Fingers crossed we get lucky Mr Frost, Inverclyde has dodged the storms as of late so this severe risk has to deliver for us!
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
So far so good on the GFS?? High even looks a little stronger