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swebby

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    Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

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  1. Hmmm, i'd be cautious about those MJO forecasts at the mo. When i checked a few days back the GFS was holding a high amplitude phase 7. The one you have posted is i think the ECM output based on the ones listed here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml The GFS is today showing a quick circuit through the COD back to phase 6/5 then back to high amplitude 7 Yet their discussion from a few days ago is more in keeping with the one i saw. And i have also read that tropical forcing is not having much impact on the global circulation. In short - a lot of variation therefore treat with caution. May also mean some wild swings in the long range output for our neck of the woods.
  2. "Forever" - That may actually be a good sign for areas like Dorset and the south coast as it probably indicates the colder air from the NE undercutting so more likely to be snow as opposed to rain.
  3. Also surprised by how quickly it's settling but it was a cold night last night and ground temps are probably still helpfully low.
  4. And just for once - that's actually a shot of the West bound lane and hard shoulder.......
  5. Yeah still raining here in central Exe but can now see from the radar that the ppt is moving East to West rather than the South to North it was a couple of hours ago. And as i type, it has changed to large flakes of wet snow.
  6. Polzeath and Newquay are in grey area's on that chart and they look to be doing fine so i'd not be too despondent just yet.
  7. Yep, suspect Haldon will be a big headache. I think a lot of the amber warning in the SW is going to be related to the snow being proceeded by rain and therefore prescriptive gritting is simply not going to work. I wonder if DCC still have their work gangs of highway maintenance people camped out at the top and bottom of Haldon Hill?
  8. Simply based on the recent changes to Exeters' forecast conditions at the met office site (i.e later and snowier instead of sleet), i assume the system is stalling and pivoting further SW than expected a few hours ago?
  9. It sure does have that look of a classic dartboard GFS low that inhabits t+ 180 land, so as BA suggests, chance of verifying as shown are slim. There is clearly some kind of +ve feed back bug that leads to these mid Atlantic monsters appearing in the gfs, probably some kind of unavoidable aberration in the algorithms otherwise they would not work most of the time. I've heard a similar story that Exeter had issues with one of their models having a habit of generating impossibly low (< -100C !) temps in central china (I will add the caveat that this is from a man that knows a man therefore it may have been a model in development stage.)
  10. swebby

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    Yes, i had that sinking feeling the other week when some members were getting all excited about a plume for this week just in time for the school holidays. Does not take much of a change in the global pattern for the red tops "it's scorchio" headlines to equate to heavy rain and cloud here in the South West (you can happily interchange South West for Ireland, Wales, the North West and Scotland) but hey ho, if London is sweltering for 2 days then that's what's important for the headline writers. On the plus side, i suspect (hope) the low/trough will lift out just a little bit more than modelled to possibly make it not a total wash out in Devon/Cornwall on Sunday which will be good news for you and the wedding that Jezzer will be going to. It still be pants for anyone holidaying in Ire/Wal that were hoping for fun in the Sun
  11. swebby

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Yes, a deep Atlantic trough/cut off low pumping very warm uppers all the way from N.Africa does have that 2003 look about it. From an IMBY perspective, i would have preferred to have kept our recent weather pattern where the fine weather is courtesy of the strong ridging from the Azores high. In-part because it is reminiscent of the more classical British fine summer weather (e.g. 1976) that tends to avoid the very silly high temps coupled with oppressive humidity but more importantly, it is because it is a more reliable source of fine weather for the majority of the UK (North Sco and NE coast possibly excepted). Yes, the projected pattern can provide the "scorchio" weather that was UK wide in 2003 but it is a very fine line (ca 300-500 miles) between that and something extremely unsettled for Ireland and the western parts of the UK. If memory serves this is what occurred for most of the summer of 2011.
  12. swebby

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Always the way to go i think and looking at the GFS slp ensembles, the op is definitely the most bullish about ridging from the Azores over the uk day 8-11. It does however have some support from 5-6 members of the ensembles. If i recall correctly. The models, over a 2-3 day period when storm Hector was on it's way back in the first half of June, were confident that a long wave trough was likely to hang about the UK indefinitely, that never really materialised. I always feel that once a strong Azores high sets up and influences the UK weather early in the summer season, then it will take something significant for prolonged unsettled weather to take hold before the end of August. E.g a major mid Atlantic Hurricane or very strong tropical forcing. No sign of the first at the mo and Catacol posted yesterday that the tropical forcing currently modelled is being watered down.
  13. swebby

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Agree and I do like that "return of the westerlies" term (coined by TWS if memory serves?) and as we head towards the solstice a more unsettled theme is being hinted at by the models. To my mind, it's common for UK to be under the influence of LP around the solstice and it's what happens come July and the behaviour of the Azores high that is more important to our summer prospects. In regards to good spring weather equalling wash out summers - it's a very unscientific approach on my part but it is prolonged very dry spells in April that give me the heebie jeebies (i think 2007 and 2012 have such examples). Fortunately this April was not one of those, so while it may not mean this summer will be "scorchio" it does at least mean i feel a bit more confident that we are not going to have a record breaking wash out..
  14. swebby

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Yes, i know it's FI but it really is chalk and cheese with the 6z/12z! I looked at the ensembles this morning (0z) and assumed more of the same, i.e current nondescript pressure pattern for the UK long term (High to N, slack Low over europe) but when i checked this afternoon (showing the 6z suite) I thought bloody hell summers over! If the 12z actually verified it 1976 again.
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