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Windy?

swebby

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    Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

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  1. It sure does have that look of a classic dartboard GFS low that inhabits t+ 180 land, so as BA suggests, chance of verifying as shown are slim. There is clearly some kind of +ve feed back bug that leads to these mid Atlantic monsters appearing in the gfs, probably some kind of unavoidable aberration in the algorithms otherwise they would not work most of the time. I've heard a similar story that Exeter had issues with one of their models having a habit of generating impossibly low (< -100C !) temps in central china (I will add the caveat that this is from a man that knows a man therefore it may have been a model in development stage.)
  2. swebby

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    Yes, i had that sinking feeling the other week when some members were getting all excited about a plume for this week just in time for the school holidays. Does not take much of a change in the global pattern for the red tops "it's scorchio" headlines to equate to heavy rain and cloud here in the South West (you can happily interchange South West for Ireland, Wales, the North West and Scotland) but hey ho, if London is sweltering for 2 days then that's what's important for the headline writers. On the plus side, i suspect (hope) the low/trough will lift out just a little bit more than modelled to possibly make it not a total wash out in Devon/Cornwall on Sunday which will be good news for you and the wedding that Jezzer will be going to. It still be pants for anyone holidaying in Ire/Wal that were hoping for fun in the Sun
  3. swebby

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Yes, a deep Atlantic trough/cut off low pumping very warm uppers all the way from N.Africa does have that 2003 look about it. From an IMBY perspective, i would have preferred to have kept our recent weather pattern where the fine weather is courtesy of the strong ridging from the Azores high. In-part because it is reminiscent of the more classical British fine summer weather (e.g. 1976) that tends to avoid the very silly high temps coupled with oppressive humidity but more importantly, it is because it is a more reliable source of fine weather for the majority of the UK (North Sco and NE coast possibly excepted). Yes, the projected pattern can provide the "scorchio" weather that was UK wide in 2003 but it is a very fine line (ca 300-500 miles) between that and something extremely unsettled for Ireland and the western parts of the UK. If memory serves this is what occurred for most of the summer of 2011.
  4. swebby

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Always the way to go i think and looking at the GFS slp ensembles, the op is definitely the most bullish about ridging from the Azores over the uk day 8-11. It does however have some support from 5-6 members of the ensembles. If i recall correctly. The models, over a 2-3 day period when storm Hector was on it's way back in the first half of June, were confident that a long wave trough was likely to hang about the UK indefinitely, that never really materialised. I always feel that once a strong Azores high sets up and influences the UK weather early in the summer season, then it will take something significant for prolonged unsettled weather to take hold before the end of August. E.g a major mid Atlantic Hurricane or very strong tropical forcing. No sign of the first at the mo and Catacol posted yesterday that the tropical forcing currently modelled is being watered down.
  5. swebby

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Agree and I do like that "return of the westerlies" term (coined by TWS if memory serves?) and as we head towards the solstice a more unsettled theme is being hinted at by the models. To my mind, it's common for UK to be under the influence of LP around the solstice and it's what happens come July and the behaviour of the Azores high that is more important to our summer prospects. In regards to good spring weather equalling wash out summers - it's a very unscientific approach on my part but it is prolonged very dry spells in April that give me the heebie jeebies (i think 2007 and 2012 have such examples). Fortunately this April was not one of those, so while it may not mean this summer will be "scorchio" it does at least mean i feel a bit more confident that we are not going to have a record breaking wash out..
  6. swebby

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Yes, i know it's FI but it really is chalk and cheese with the 6z/12z! I looked at the ensembles this morning (0z) and assumed more of the same, i.e current nondescript pressure pattern for the UK long term (High to N, slack Low over europe) but when i checked this afternoon (showing the 6z suite) I thought bloody hell summers over! If the 12z actually verified it 1976 again.
  7. And not forgetting the black lava of Ol Doinyo Lengai - Really weird stuff and it makes the fast flowing lava of Kilauea look like toothpaste. https://www.wired.com/2014/03/strangest-magma-earth-carbonatites-oldoinyo-lengai/
  8. Hi GW - are you (or anyone else) able to expand on the low solar bit of the comment please? I'm aware of the arguments of how sun spot cycle may impact on the NH winter weather/climate but was not aware of any links to tropical storm cycles.
  9. Big day coming up for Jack Leach. A good performance from him, with England rolling the kiwis over to draw the series, will cement his place in the team. It is hugely frustrating that it has taken the England seam attack 7 tests to work out that you need to bowl a very full length with a new kookaburra ball. It is not as if this is a well kept secret. All other teams do it and so too did old England teams (Gough, Hoggard, etc) but for some reason we currently seem to have some completely hat stand bowling plans.
  10. Hmm, Irish coast south of Dublin looking like it'll get another pasting. Do hope this pub in Sallins dug itself out and stocked up on the dark stuff for St Patricks day......
  11. Yes that's a good point, they must have a good level of confidence. Looking at the matrix, it appears the impact is the same, likelihood increased. As i type, the MO warnings page has crashed, ho hum. The most pressing question is,,,,,,,, when i leave work will the shop shelves have been stripped clean again? Glad a i brought a loaf for sarnies on the way in to work this morning.
  12. Hi MWB - not sure mobile is the appropriate term here? For UK i'd define mobile as a strong west to east flow with a strong jet over/near the uk with lows exiting the Eastern seaboard and being driven into the Uk/Scandinavia at a good rate of knots. Looking at the 0z ECMWF it looks to me that the jet is still a long way south of the UK and we have lows meandering aimlessly around the Atlantic/nw Europe. The clusters i feel are showing some ideas of where the main core(s) of the low sets up home? Admittedly - the outcome will be same - very wet, probably windy with an even chance of it being cold to average in temps.
  13. Proper snow to boot, big flakes, not ice pellets or wet stuff. Wonder if it'll transition back to rain/sleet/ice pellets of this morning - it must be a very mixed bag of upper air temps.
  14. Moderate snow here in Exeter, big surprise as i assumed it was all done down here and anything now would be rain.
  15. You've done well to find something to buy, local co-op here in Exeter was stripped yesterday afternoon. Refrigerated pizza seemed to be the first thing to go, obviously moved on from the days of panic buying milk bread and beans.
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