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    Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

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  1. Tis always a concern seeing a big fat high over Greenland and why i queried quicksilvers post the other day about what was showing for the start of August. From a imby perspective, the Azores High has been there of there abouts for a good part of the summer and it has struck me that the models have tended to underestimate it's strength/resilience in the 5-10 day range, leading to better than forecast conditions for the SW and S.England for that time frame. We have had a relatively subdued MJO for the summer which, as with the AH, is counter to what has been forecast, so this may be related but i'll leave that to those that know more about the teleconnections?
  2. Hi Quicksilver, in regards to HLB not leading to a poor summer? I look at that 2nd 500mb chart and that looks to my untrained eye like an impending wash out?
  3. Parts of the Loire region in France are showing a min temp of 28C at midnight next Thu/Fri with maxes of 39C at that time! Output like that verifying will have unfortunate consequences.
  4. Posting a chart and captioning it BOOM is not my thing (too old and grey) but that chart is quite literally that for south wales, the values have gone off the scale! Given the luck they have had with weather, i assume the green man festival been moved to next week?
  5. Hi peeps, Is this the reason for the quirky operational precipitation plots that are showing up on the ensembles?
  6. Hmmm, i'd be cautious about those MJO forecasts at the mo. When i checked a few days back the GFS was holding a high amplitude phase 7. The one you have posted is i think the ECM output based on the ones listed here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml The GFS is today showing a quick circuit through the COD back to phase 6/5 then back to high amplitude 7 Yet their discussion from a few days ago is more in keeping with the one i saw. And i have also read that tropical forcing is not having much impact on the global circulation. In short - a lot of variation therefore treat with caution. May also mean some wild swings in the long range output for our neck of the woods.
  7. "Forever" - That may actually be a good sign for areas like Dorset and the south coast as it probably indicates the colder air from the NE undercutting so more likely to be snow as opposed to rain.
  8. Also surprised by how quickly it's settling but it was a cold night last night and ground temps are probably still helpfully low.
  9. And just for once - that's actually a shot of the West bound lane and hard shoulder.......
  10. Yeah still raining here in central Exe but can now see from the radar that the ppt is moving East to West rather than the South to North it was a couple of hours ago. And as i type, it has changed to large flakes of wet snow.
  11. Polzeath and Newquay are in grey area's on that chart and they look to be doing fine so i'd not be too despondent just yet.
  12. Yep, suspect Haldon will be a big headache. I think a lot of the amber warning in the SW is going to be related to the snow being proceeded by rain and therefore prescriptive gritting is simply not going to work. I wonder if DCC still have their work gangs of highway maintenance people camped out at the top and bottom of Haldon Hill?
  13. Simply based on the recent changes to Exeters' forecast conditions at the met office site (i.e later and snowier instead of sleet), i assume the system is stalling and pivoting further SW than expected a few hours ago?
  14. It sure does have that look of a classic dartboard GFS low that inhabits t+ 180 land, so as BA suggests, chance of verifying as shown are slim. There is clearly some kind of +ve feed back bug that leads to these mid Atlantic monsters appearing in the gfs, probably some kind of unavoidable aberration in the algorithms otherwise they would not work most of the time. I've heard a similar story that Exeter had issues with one of their models having a habit of generating impossibly low (< -100C !) temps in central china (I will add the caveat that this is from a man that knows a man therefore it may have been a model in development stage.)
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