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    Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

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  1. Heavy rain has now passed through Exeter. It was on occasions lumpy rain (i.e had ice mixed in with it), whether it was melted hail or very wet snow was impossible to say. Radar suggested sleet.
  2. Just a follow up on Dorian https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/01-10-2019-who-director-general-visits-devastated-sites-in-the-bahamas-to-assess-health-impacts-of-hurricane-dorian Death toll currently stands at 56 but 600 are still classed as missing. Think it is a reasonable assumption that Dorian will be retired as a name.
  3. Ireland & Cornwall - Surf's up! Something that caught my eye on the NOAA discussion - trapped-fetch waves. https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/mmop/documents/JCOMM-TR/J-TR-29-WH8/Presentations/H1.pdf Not an intuitive phenomena, i.e dependent on storm strength, but more to do with storm track.
  4. If we were to go on a simple matching of pattern then the current cycle to me most closely resembles 1998/1999 so if were to follow then it would be next winter and into spring 21 before we have a Easterly direction below the 50 hPa
  5. Am i correct in thinking that a coastal runner could be much, much more damaging over a wide area than an actual landfall?
  6. Link to the NOAA station at settlement point far western tip of Grand Bahama https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1 Current sustained winds of 37kts having fallen from an earlier 45kts. If the predicted path is correct, this station will be hit by the southern eyewall later today/tonight. The previous station was knocked out by a direct hit from Matthew in 2016 but recorded sustained winds of over 70kts before going down. The station is on the end of a sea wall so it is more likely being swamped rather than being blown away that will be the issue. On another note - Still no update from chaser Josh Morgerman @iCyclone since yesterday, hopefully nowt more than issues with down coms but Marsh Harbour was battered yesterday.
  7. The people walking may have decided to seek alternative shelter?
  8. A link to the NOAA buoy at settlement point on Grand Bahama, https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1 I believe this is a new station, as i was following the old one for hurricane Matthew in 2016 until it was wiped out - (last recordings for matthew showed >34m/s winds https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/view_text_file.php?filename=spgf1c2016.txt.gz&dir=data/historical/cwind/ and the report had a wind gust of 91mph https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142016_Matthew.pdf) If the track for Dorian is correct, they'll gonna have to rebuild it again!
  9. Tis always a concern seeing a big fat high over Greenland and why i queried quicksilvers post the other day about what was showing for the start of August. From a imby perspective, the Azores High has been there of there abouts for a good part of the summer and it has struck me that the models have tended to underestimate it's strength/resilience in the 5-10 day range, leading to better than forecast conditions for the SW and S.England for that time frame. We have had a relatively subdued MJO for the summer which, as with the AH, is counter to what has been forecast, so this may be related but i'll leave that to those that know more about the teleconnections?
  10. Hi Quicksilver, in regards to HLB not leading to a poor summer? I look at that 2nd 500mb chart and that looks to my untrained eye like an impending wash out?
  11. Parts of the Loire region in France are showing a min temp of 28C at midnight next Thu/Fri with maxes of 39C at that time! Output like that verifying will have unfortunate consequences.
  12. Posting a chart and captioning it BOOM is not my thing (too old and grey) but that chart is quite literally that for south wales, the values have gone off the scale! Given the luck they have had with weather, i assume the green man festival been moved to next week?
  13. Hi peeps, Is this the reason for the quirky operational precipitation plots that are showing up on the ensembles?
  14. Hmmm, i'd be cautious about those MJO forecasts at the mo. When i checked a few days back the GFS was holding a high amplitude phase 7. The one you have posted is i think the ECM output based on the ones listed here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml The GFS is today showing a quick circuit through the COD back to phase 6/5 then back to high amplitude 7 Yet their discussion from a few days ago is more in keeping with the one i saw. And i have also read that tropical forcing is not having much impact on the global circulation. In short - a lot of variation therefore treat with caution. May also mean some wild swings in the long range output for our neck of the woods.
  15. "Forever" - That may actually be a good sign for areas like Dorset and the south coast as it probably indicates the colder air from the NE undercutting so more likely to be snow as opposed to rain.
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