irishlad69
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Posts posted by irishlad69
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i like the look of this, i realise its two weeks out but would be great
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which is the most reliable charts, GFS or ECMWF, as they are giving different forecasts for next week
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Hi All
been a while, glad to be back, i see the charts are pointing to a cold scenario from this weekend, lets hope they are true to form
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It looks to be pretty cold from the 1st January, i am liking the models, even though i would have liked it to be a week earlier
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I really do wish people would stop going on about models, they are useless after 3 days, even that's at a push, models only go where the data that's put into them make them go.
As for easterlies, no one had a clue that easterlies where coming in 2009/2010 until a few days before hand, so anything can happen
Personally i will take it day by day, these so called forecasters like Madden, Bastardi, Vogan, they know no more than what we all do and that's why they never get it right, and if they do its a fluke, guess work at best.
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16 hours ago, knocker said:
I think you will find that his contract with the Express has since been terminated.
I do believe the scientist is a female
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i find it interesting that people sill seem to think that computer models can predict the weather and what cold months followed by warm months or a warm month followed by cold months, if we look hard enough we will always find scenarios that we want to find but it does not mean anything really. Mother nature will always do what she wants regardless of what the computer says or what warm or cold months there is.
My personal view is that two major factors predict what type of weather we will have and that's Sunspot numbers and the North Atlantic Current, and this year i believe we will have a cold winter but not so sure about how much snow.
I have read that a scientist has predicted that the sun is not only declining in sunspot numbers but is also cooling and we could be in another ice age within 15-20 years, interesting.
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i do believe there are two major influences in the northern hemisphere, and they are sunspot number, and the north Atlantic current, just like2009,when there was the BP oil spill that disrupted the current and the sunspot number was 0 that year, what happened, a great winter. however this year the sunspot number is low, the current is going well which tells me the winter will be colder, but maybe not snowy.
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i think we will have a cold Christmas this year due to the low sunspot number, whether it snows or not is a different matter
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what is the most reliable model
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I see a couple of the charts are going colder going into December, I know its a bit far out but its better than nothing
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Could be because he's more often wrong than right?
piers corbyn is never repeated on here because he is nearly always right, and he goes against the grain of the met office, he is a very reliable forcaster
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can anyone tell me exactly when the current solar cycle is meant to end, as the sun is meant to go extremely quiet after that, sorry its a bit off topic
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apparently we will be heading for a blocking over Greenland heading into Jan, does anyone know if there is any truth in the matter, lets hope so
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Why is everyone being so negative? Long range models are about as good as a chocolate tea pot. The short range models can't even predict the weather after 4 days so what makes you think the ec 32 is going to be right?
exactly, charts charts charts, they are rubbish after 3 days
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All the signals are there for cold to take over shortly and into the new year. Any mild or warmer weather has dissappeared, quite a turn around from just a week or so ago. Have a feeling this winter will be one to remember!
I hope your right, I could do with a good fix of the white cold stuff,
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That far out? It is just a week away.
I know what you mean and hope your right however remember the cold spell we where meant to get over a week ago, and 3 days before it all changed, and it only lasted 24 hrs rather than the 3-5 days that was stated a week before
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is it just me or from the 22nd/23rd December and according to both ECMWF & GFS there will be a big battle between the warmth and the cold, although I don't believe in the charts that far out, due to the fact the say different things but they are going the same direction this time
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I'm starting to feel like winter is not worth it if there is no prospect of snow.. might as well be mild and sunny. I need to go abroad for the winter to escape this miserable island (weather-wise, that is).
I agree, maybe Egypt
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Well we have now moved from the wrist slashingly poor output ( for coldies ans snowies) of the euro high induced mild to more normal fare for winter especially here in the south west, namely endless low pressures whizzing across on the jet stream.
But before we have any more winter is over posts.
It would probably do us good to remember that from a snow lovers point of view. Some of our greatest snow events have occurred in other wise mainly westerly driven winters. We do not need a 63 or 47 scenario to have a decent spell of biting cold and extreme snowfall.
Take the winter of 77/78 for instance, December and the first three weeks of January were dominated by by a mainly westerly flow and even a southerly at times with nothing much more than the odd toppler yet the last week of January and first two weeks of feb produced the great highland Blizzard then a spell of severe cold with widespread snowfalls finishing down here in my part of the world with the great southwest Blizzard of 78 on the 18th Feb with drifts up to 30 feet high, and all this from a winter that wasn't even in the top twenty coldest of the 20th century!!
My message to coldies is keep the faith. Those of us who have been around a fair old while like myself know that it is often a waiting game with the British winter especially down south.
although I agree with what you say however the majority of us coldies, or at least I hope the majority would love to have snow for Christmas day, at least not for us but for the kids
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I am not sure if you all believe in this sort of thing, but I was going for a newspaper at 0800hrs the sky was bright red and then from no where hundreds of geese was flying over head, and I mean that literally, hundreds of geese, I have never in my life seen such a large flock, it was quite eerie as they turned south westwards, maybe I am just hoping this is a really good sign
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I think the upcoming storms are going to break up the horribly mild pattern we are in right now. Can only be a good thing if you like cold. My gut feeling tells me it's going be turning colder from around the 23rd.
I agree with you there but I believe it will be colder around the 20th/21st, that's just my personal view
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Cant get my head round the fact that the cfs keeps trying to push a high pressure over Scandinavia. I know people say cfs is inconsistent blah blah but it has regularly pointed to high around this region for x mas week. This model must have picked something up or else why would it show these runs!!!!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121006/run1m2/cfs-0-348.png?06
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121100/run1m/cfs-0-366.png?00
I agree with you there, and as far as I am concerned all the other charts change every day, so whats not to say the CFS chart is correct or not correct for that matter
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we still have two weeks until Christmas day, I aint giving up yet
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Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
how can two charts be so different and which one will be correct