I really do wish people would stop going on about models, they are useless after 3 days, even that's at a push, models only go where the data that's put into them make them go.
As for easterlies, no one had a clue that easterlies where coming in 2009/2010 until a few days before hand, so anything can happen
Personally i will take it day by day, these so called forecasters like Madden, Bastardi, Vogan, they know no more than what we all do and that's why they never get it right, and if they do its a fluke, guess work at best.