ancientsolar

I remember us all gathering in this forum posting 100s of links to weather cams as storms hit Plymouth with flashes of lightning a few every second. according to my old video it was May 27th 2017 (at least by the time it got to Wales) As for me it didn't matter if the storm hit here, when the Storm was hitting Plymouth I could see the strobes from the lightning in S Wales. This was the most epic storm I had seen since my teen years, - I believe 2001-2002, a storm rumbled through Wales lasting hours in the night, the following morning, some of the darkest most terrifying skies appeared before giving way to a big storm --- -- as for this year, there was only one thunderstorm around here (last month I think) , with some of the best hail I have seen outside of late Autumn. so if these storms are to hit Friday night, are we likely to see a repeat of 2017?

Looking at the latest GFS and following a similar pattern of this week - would that indicate any storm risk would be where cloud is weakest in the West and North of Birmingham later on this Saturday ?

Well! , Blackwood SE Wales. Nothing was showing on the radar for rain. but it was getting darker and darker - looking out to my west I could see clouds lowering and rotating, - then there was some thunder to my East and it started to spot with hail. with in a couple of minutes the lightning was around 2x a minute, and the hail started falling violently. - For around 10minutes this continued before seemingly starting to die down, leaving roads looking like streams with hail, looking like polystyrene flowing through them. Now it has died down, the skies are brighter, but loud thunder can still be heard, threatening another storm.. or maybe dissipating into the evenings hours.. we shall see.

Can see the top of it from SE Wales too.

I believe the South Wales valleys have lit up with its first bit of lightning! heard a rumble to my West! - nothing on blitz

just hoping it does that thing where it reignites as it hits the coast!

The initial band of rain shown on the radar would suggest that it has been raining for 3-4 hours in South Wales -- A lot of it has quickly evaporated when hit the ground, - and a lot of it hasn't hit the ground at all and the pavement is only 60% ish covered with rain drops, It is very humid today, not really seeing anything out the window that screams potential. Looking further west toward Swansea on the radar, looks like some limited potential, -- perhaps like yesterday some storms will hit over the valleys and toward Brecon later on (?)

guess I should observe the Western sky over the next few hours for any development!

hearing that Matalan and Vue Cinema also damaged !

What are the chances of having dry lightning storms in this heat as we head toward Monday and Tuesday ?

Yes, agreed, i'm actually wondering if there are any warnings already out for France.

I have the Flu, and these charts are behaving like my fever, completely chilled, completely soaked, and then high temperature!

3rd thunderstorm of the day in S.E Wales, - this time with the sun shining at the same time!

looks like you've got a whole line of storms coming to hit you!

i'm hearing non stop thunder now, from 2 locations.

Approaching us in S.E Wales -- seems to be a multi cell storm .-- Heard thunder from it too!

nice shower popped up East of reading, nothing to torrential in 5 minute radar lapse

netweather radar picking up a hail core on the shower in Bristol.

well, I am sure seeing plenty of flashes to my North from the Mid SE Wales Valleys --- I dare say If I look to my East and South I'll see flashes from Bristol and Poole too!

there seemed to be quite a line of cloud developing over Telford -- seemed to have faded in the last radar run a bit, but looks like something more than nothing! Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and Ireland - SAT24.com EN.SAT24.COM Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and Ireland - SAT24.com

First Sferics near Hereford?

left picture ~ Clouds to the East of blackwood, towering some what but a lot further to go mid picture NW ~~ and final picture is SW which is looking somewhat more aggressive.

flash flooding looks like a very real possibility today - not much to report in SE Wales yet , ~ other than to say some quite fast developing showers just to my west, ~ very slow moving. ~ More focused on the radar between Salisbury and Westbury ~

id say the estofex forecast has been more accurate up until now

the SE Wales Valleys are out of the warning, but very slow moving heavy showers, looking like a thunderstorm is possible for sure!