ancientsolar
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Posts posted by ancientsolar
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seems like a line of storms developing in Wales in the muck!
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2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Err guys. I think that's called a good use of my new camera that one.
Looks like something that's been shot out of a horror film ! Beautifully horrific
Love it!
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5 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Becoming more active over western France and north Biscay now...
..hopefully as this moves nne it will intensify further....
well, hoping that there will be embedded storms as we approaching midday - and perhaps some will develop around it ^_^
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5 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:
Ooh, interesting! I can see occasional flashes coming through the curtains, assuming all from the cell to the SE. If something has developed to the west of that, then that'd be a pleasant surprise
There's a large cell directly to the Soiuth of IOW
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My view to the NorthWest, - towers still around, - not convinced this is an active cell yet, but lookslike it will be closer to Brecon than the rest.
Showers also showing their hand toward Swansea.
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CB towers still going up in the Valleys, humidity is getting to me.
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A distant view of what I can only assume is the thunderstorm over MidWales, good 25-35 miles away
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Just now, Cain said:
Unfortunately I think we are going to miss out it’s been terrible for storm in south east wales last few years I can remember we always use to get them or close but tomorrow I think is a bust
I saw a decent hail-thunderstorm here just last month
-- hey, I'm keeping a little spark ready for a storm , - even overnight!
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I still hold out hope for storms in SE Wales, - Low pressure will be ever so much closer to us and while the major storms might be easier to predict, there are always the smaller storms that can fire up anytime.
This low pressure system has had thunderstorms firing up in the Atlantic Ocean a 100miles from any land over the 2-3 days.
On another hand, i'll be observing and hoping for the best for you all ! I hope some storm chasers will be out and about too -- I have a sneaky feeling there'll be a greater chance of funnels than we had last week!
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1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Wanted to start with the verification on this,
very impressive performing again from the CFS
Hey MWB hopefully you don't see this as me having a go that really isn't in my nature at all just like to be as helpful as I can also might be useful for any newer members attempting to work those charts out
Those green lines will always be in the same orientation pretty much (think global circulations though it's often not that straightforward when deciphering Weather setups)
Most important with those is to focus beneath the green lines as the reds purples and blues are the important indicators of actual lows + troughs / ridges + high pressures, I took the chart you provided and done some editing which should make it easy to understand
Further confirmation of the above and some further info on the patterns
Excellent vid this and a point I've spoke about on numerous occasions and I'll discuss again in a min
If we concentrate on the developing setup over the U.S and Canada we have another block unfolding (remember this has been consistent throughout May and already into June hence record amounts of wildfires across Canada)
'Omega Block' Weather Pattern To Dominate US | Weather.com
WEATHER.COMBlocking weather patterns have dominated the U.S. since the start of May, including a new omega block this week. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.comWe have a high stretching from Mexico up through Texas (this is already giving record heat and that will continue) the same high connects to the developing block over northern US and approaching Canada. These NOAA charts can go hand in hand with the chart MWB posted
Quite a concerning situation with a large swathe of the Great Lakes and other Northern states are at record dry levels beating anything seen in upwards of 130 years
Eerily similar to what we've had through May once again the block could be at record intensity for this time of year
I'm getting increasingly concerned with the potential for severe weather in the UK Tomorrow & Monday
Tieing into my discussions in my previous post regarding MJO phases 2+3
As an area of low pressure develops within the UK this will pose a number of severe weather potential.
Any CG lightning has much heightened severity as with these levels of fire danger that will mean wildfires can be sparked off very easily
My highest concern is with incredibly high PWAT levels a big flash flood threat will be present especially as the low properly deepens around Northeastern England into East Scotland (IMBY)
Beyond this we have another event showing the interconnected nature I often talk about as similar to a post I done recently another surge of wildfire smoke from Canada moves across us which could be worth noting for those that deal with breathing related conditions.. might be good to have a mask at hand or limit outdoor activities a bit
Any haziness to the sky will be explained with that.
More insightful discussions around twitter again connects to my own theories I've been posting with regards to stratospheric goings on and a general abnormality to how retrogressive the atmosphere has continued being since at least May. We've still got a huge quantity of water vapour following Hunga Tongas eruption, obviously Ninò arriving after those mega hot SST's were sat effectively dormant for 3 years, I still think the strat events from winter have had a part in the wacky global patterns too, I'll go further on that shortly.
So yes further evidence of the global climate overall being as far away from any degree of normality
Record cyclone Biparjoy somehow improved in structure AFTER landfall which anyone who is familiar with cyclones + hurricanes knows that really shouldn't happen at that stage
Oh yeah it's snowing in Siberia
Yeah it really is week 3 of JUNE
This is the longest post I've ever done I think really appreciated if you are still reading ha
The tropical wave I discussed in my last post has now advanced to 92L with high odds to become tropical storm Bret within a few days and first signals it *might have another tropical wave following closely behind
Thank you so much for this, - Yes I did read through it, and checked a number of the twitter threads and images you posted. Knowing the effort you put into it.. I don't but I do want to ask you.. please keep us informed of any changes.. or anything that remains the same
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Some limited potential here. bits n bobs of towers.
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1 minute ago, Dxnielwashere said:
some dark clouds to my east looks very dark at the moment this might become a thunderstorm!
storm 1: storm 2:storm 3 4 i didnt get to take a picture with but this took me so long to send these photos all of these clouds have bubbled up and storm 3 has got a lot of ice crystals and is now a cumulonimbus cloud as well as storm 2
I'm watching , i'll send a picture now of the valleys, - all a bit squib here ,. but brief storms do seem to be able to form.
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am I right in thinking we could be in for a fairly thundery week all the way through to Wednesday ?
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11 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:
The AROME at least gives a some splashes of rain here, not that it ever overdoes radar reflectivity! Could even be some thunder very early tomorrow morning according to this, but not ideal timing at all.
A chart like that , we could end up with storms almost anywhere away from the far South West
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3 minutes ago, Don said:
Cooler maybe but not cool, what with the record high North Atlantic temperatures? I think there is no getting away from near or above average temperatures even during unsettled spells ATM?
I still have that question in my mind, - What does a warmer North Atlantic do for our weather, - are the models able to pick it up ?
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27th May 2017 Was also an amazing light show !
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5 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:
Now Showing symbols for storms tomorrow evening ,wait and see I guess
Where are seeing those storm symbols?
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Several runs like this..
The west and north look to do well.
any storm potential through Saturday night into the early hours of Sunday ?
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Don't see that anybody's mentioned it, but there are a few thunderstorms in Scotland, one developing in Glasgow , any Glaswegians here?
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Thought I'd give my very limited amateur opinion on tomorrow - low pressure slowly moving in colliding with warmer air.. Particularly over the SW of both UK and Ireland - possible storms skirt with the South Coast too.-
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
Not looking that great for weekend storms, unless you're in the west.
Ahh ! How West are we speaking ?
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Sferic in NW Wales (Bleanau Ffestiniog) - bet the thunder sounds like a beauty rolling around the valley!
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1 minute ago, Cain said:
Some fairly big clouds gone up in south east wales but weather they do anything I’m not sure
They are trying their best!
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Cloud development is rapid now. The shower near Lampeter is showing partly torrential and has grow 3-4x in 25mins. - It has to literally give off lightning any time !
Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
where's my sceptical welsh people? I think our best chance is approaching ^_^