Bazray

My take on it, if you put 2+2 into a calculator the result will always be 4. Computers / Calculators / Algorithms are clinical and correct when dealing with facts. problem is with weather, is there are never any firm facts to enter into the calculator, a little change here or there can have massive implications in the end result, hence why we can never predict the FI with any real degree of certainty. So thats my excuse why I will ignore the last outputs until they show what I want (about 9 feet of powder snow) Anyway thanks Cat, whatever happens been a real education reading ypur posts, Thank You

Well you have called it with breathtaking accuracy so far. Far as I am aware you called this SSW event many weeks ago and remember when you said it may go South, then the models almost did, so if you say it wont break down on Friday it probally wont lol. Yes hopefuly just another wobble.

Im not really very knowledgeable about weather Cat other than what I have picked up from this forum in the brief periods I visit (usually when snow is forecast) But yes I did notice that the temps have increased rapidly in the artic, almost a role reversal. Did the second phase of warming not kick in recently and any idea of what impact that may have later down the line? must say also will be amazed if the models have not been over progressive, it just does not make sense to me that a little low can fight off such a cold pool. Time will tell I guess.

Hope you kept the reciept for the Quad bike lol

Hopefully the Cat is rignt here, lets not forget the models don't make the weather, they just predict it based on a bunch of man made algorithms - the scope for the models to be wrong is a lot more than the met office who give thier forecasts based from models but crucially with a human interpretation.

?Thank you very much for that ?

Me too

Cheered Me up too - thanks AWD and lets not forget the met office with thier world class team of experts and multi-million pound computers are still on board the Siberian express - It seems any mad spell of weather almost comes as a bit of a surprise. The weather it seems can make a fool of us all. Guess the term it changes like the weather is very apt here, lets hope we get the best case scenario!!!

Correct me if i'm wrong here, but am I correct in thinking that if tonights charts verify (worst case scenario) then that could lead to a situation of the moist air from the atlantic hitting the frigid european air that is already in place and readily turning to snow, potential for blizzards - if that is the last hurah of the winter and then we move into spring, that is actually a pretty decent consolation prize right?

you can't walk the path to heaven without hitting a stone p.s does anyone want to buy some cheap salt, anti freeze etc?

3 days of constant snow? Yea go on then, you have twisted my arm.

Well another day of model watching and another day of upgrades. I Remember when I heard about this SSW event about two weeks ago and have been hooked ever since, think it was one of Catacol's posts a few weeks ago that caught my interest, at that point it seemed a real long-shot but being snow starved, just the chance was enough to peak my interest. At that point two weeks ago who could have imagined we would be sat here today, the Beast from the East staring right at us and about to send us into the freezer for a few weeks. Told a few of my mates at football last night and there was a few sniggers, think they thought I was losing the plot lol, but can say with a high level of confidence I will get the last laugh on that one We move into the fun part now, the radar and lampost watching and that exitement that brings! Hope you all get absolutly burried and manage to stay safe and warm.

I dont think we will get any warnings till we move into the reliable timeframe, which Should be over the weekend / early next week. Looks like lots of positive signs of being the right set up for good convection for us guys though. Fingers crossed eh!

Can you see the little paperclip icon below where you are typing on the left it says 'click to choose files' select that and it should take you into your phones pictures to select the one you want. Thats how it works on mine anyway.

So another day of ups and downs, looks like for once us guys just might be sat in what could potentially be the sweet spot for this upcoming event with a bit of leeway for the constant change seen in the models. Guess we deserve that after seeing the whole of the winter pass with everything going North of the M4 All looking good at the moment (till the next run at least) have spent way to much time on the MOD thread today so I'm off to do my hourly breathing exercises and sit in the praying mantis position for a few hours.

Thank you, very helpful. One last question. If there is an area of high pressure, and an area of low pressure, then the high pressure area will move into the low pressure area. for example a high in siberia and a low in england, the air from siberia will travel to england is that somewhat correct?

Would anyone be kind enough to explain to me the role the isobar plays on a weather chart please. Does it indicate the source of the airflow and the direction the air (wind) will travel and also what is the difference between a tight and loose isobar and what effect does that have? An explanation for dummies wil suffice ? Thank you ?

So after this afternoons little wobble, its back on and has gone heavy metal! Not to sure I can handle another week of this, might need to take up meditation or deep breathing or something. and relax.

Its quite remarkable! Kind of programmed to expect the worst living down here, but this time things just seem to be going right for once. *touches wood and crosses fingers and toes*

12z another absolute cracker! The stars are aligned

Eyes down for the 12z!

Yea give me today over cold and dry any day of the week, cold and snowy on the other hand, no choice there.

The televised weather reports so dull and boring, We have one of the most exciting weather events coming up in at least 8years, one that has the potential to be a record breaker and all they can say is it might get cold and icy. Am not asking them too exaggerate or anything but at least expand and explain what is going on and explain the potential this Easterly has.k instead they prefer chatting about bloody KFC running out of chicken :s maybe the forecasters are instructed to downplay it a bit until things firm up for the risk of not causing unwanted panic?!

Ha ha, exacly what I thought, women and shopping, any excuse ?

Forecast summary Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018: Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill. Updated at: 1200 on Tue 20 Feb 2018 UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018: At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March Updated at: 1200 on Tue 20 Feb 2018