[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

11 minutes ago, Bazray said:

 

 

4 minutes ago, fromey said:

Does anyone have an enigma machine so I can decode somethings that have been written in the mad thread!

also Today’s and yesterday’s 10hpa charts 

Totally mad in there tonight, not good for ones health, wondering if have lost the abilty to decipher English after reading the last few pages!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

1 hour ago, TropicThunder said:

Yes, that was the only highlight of an otherwise miserable afternoon!

Was a good and important result for us and Thank you for Big Virgil,. Loved the  bit where he (VVD) roamed forward, lost the ball and got booed and had a little chuckle, quality.

you absolutly mugged us for £75m, is he worth anything near that, hell no, did we need him desperately, hell yes. Looks super cool, almost a bit laid back, but no doubt ouzes class.

 

edit and Mane, not so much Lovren lol.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

So, MSSW & reversal starts today!

I think we can look forward to some really interesting & exciting model watching during the next couple of weeks.

But, whether it will actually fall in our favour is still very much open to question.

Hopefully, we can experience something special, I think we deserve it!

 

Getting a bit sick of model watching, would prefer a bit of curtain twiching and seeing a bit of snow on the lampost. Something is brewing out there, I can feel it

 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Nope - not quite. We have to get through this first

followed by a bit of this (though uppers will be good for high ground snow)

before suddenly at the weekend we get the anticipated, and very sudden, trop response to the split and warming

- so my fingers have a fair bit of drumming to do yet. I wonder if there is a change this weekend starting "gun" may be brought forward? No prediction there - just musing. It is possible.

Well its great to be sat at the table with a good hand, like having an open ended flush, odds are good, just need the cards to fall for us - if not, at least we have the consolation of spring / summer just around the corner. Happy days. 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

So - here we go. Vortex split, reversal to occur in the next 24-36 hours. Depth of reversal significant, length of reversal significant, vortex shard placement and progression a bit uncertain - but set to leave the UK in no man's land between the 2... surely providing a rich context to height rises to the north... maybe NE (my best guess) or maybe N to NW (as per some model runs recently..) Either way - height rises.

Still looking also for the storm track generally to drop south, though this has not been hugely noticeable in model runs in the last few days. Are the algorithms able to deal with a split vortex on top of an extended and deep reversal with a pacific context of high amplitude MJO and ongoing impact of east asian MT promoting the kind of poleward wave activity as posted so well recently by Masiello on twitter? And warming of the Canadian vortex shard on the horizon also? 

No. NWP will model all this far worse than usual. Wild swings will occur I think - with some awesome charts interspersed with downright ordinary looking ones. GFS just now churning out good ones - and this image here for medium term illustrates my thinking pretty well.

There have been some wise words in the last day or so, urging caution. They are right. Caution in weather forecasting is the name of the game - I suspect I have been guilty of being rather bullish in some recent posts. But at the same time - let's be clear. We havent seen a split and reversal like this in the modern record. Amy Butler has tweeted today that eddy heat flux has just broken the modern record and will be making a mess of vortex shape as I type. Sustained reversing strat winds for around 10 days are not something we have seen before - but are forecast. End result is that we have preconditions for something special.

To be honest - if we cant be excited now (coldie excitement that is) then frankly we never can be. 

So have you stopped tapping your fingers now lol

 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Less than half from what I've read. Not great statistics is it?

Ill take a 70% chance all day long. This SSW looks to be a good one.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Someone posted earlier he was speaking to someone at the met office and he believed a 70% chance for the cold spell towards the end of the month to occur, we have a good chance, hopefully once the SSW kicks in it all starts to firm up and become a bit clearer.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Quite often the models will chop and change when a large atmospheric driver flips and causes a pattern change in the lower atmosphere and this has been the case over the last few days. But as the SSW impacts start to come in the high resolution part of the models, i.e. out to 10 days with most models, then we may start to firm up on what lies in store and whether indeed we will see high latitude blocking manifest to our north and northeast to bring a cold end to the month. But there is no guarantees of such a pattern transpiring, given what I’ve already described about not all SSW events leading to colder and snowy weather.

 

wise words from earlier netweather article relating to the SSW. MODELS WILL CHOP AND CHANGE!

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

As mentioned in this tweet, effects from the SSW just aren’t being modelled correctly yet.  So, maybe a few days to push before knowing where we go, how quick we see a response and which part of the world gets hit by a freeze etc....V interesting period ahead. 

And to expand on that a little, here is a quote from the Netweather article regarding SSW and the effects on our weather.

"Quite often the models will chop and change when a large atmospheric driver flips and causes a pattern change in the lower atmosphere and this has been the case over the last few days. But as the SSW impacts start to come in the high resolution part of the models, i.e. out to 10 days with most models, then we may start to firm up on what lies in store and whether indeed we will see high latitude blocking manifest to our north and northeast to bring a cold end to the month. But there is no guarantees of such a pattern transpiring, given what I’ve already described about not all SSW events leading to colder and snowy weather."

Guess we will be in for an really fantastic period of model watching, and hopefully the end result is we all get too see some of the white stuff!

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Don't know if should get shorts and t-shirts out or thermals going of the coments on here.

 

if past experience is anything to go by, the umberella would be a safe bet. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

Been downgraded now, my single flake at 20:00 has been turned to rain. :.-(

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Oooohherrrrr 

Thats progress - nice

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

Have just been upgraded to a single flake at 20:00

quite excited, shows just how snow starved we are down here - think will go out driving tonight to some higher ground and see if can do a bit better

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

4 minutes ago, Danny* said:

A general sign that out "cold spell" (meh, if you live in the South) is going to end is cold air flooding across the Eastern Seaboard, this only serves to power up the jet and blast the Atlantic towards the UK. Something that seems to have become a consistent feature in winters over the last few years.

If you live in the North and West you'll do well out of this setup. If you live say, South of the M4 then hopefully rain and gales are your thing, because it looks like we'll be seeing plenty of that down here. 

Cracking end to the GFS with that Easterly but as yet, very little support for it anywhere other than the GFS Det, given the last "Easterly" I wouldn't pin too much hope on that one materialising. 

Having said all that, I'm off to look at houses, I'm fed up of living in the South now.

No we dont like wind and rain south of the M4 - but hey, you kind of get used to it. If we cant get a few grains of snow out of this setup, might as well give up

 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Forgetting about the cold and snow for a minute - how much potential does this storm have, looks pretty nasty!

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

 

   32 minutes ago,  Man With Beard said: 

Many many ECM ensembles take the runner low even further south - increasingly the risk of an M4 SOUTH event

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Many many ECM ensembles take the runner low even further south - increasingly the risk of an M4 SOUTH event

Unlikely, never underestimate the force of the M4 shield!

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

midlands snow again on barrelling low

The classic M4 chop 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

absoflippinlutely

Bloody typical

edit: tuesday looks ok though

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

10 minutes ago, andymusic said:

getting closer and closer

Tuesday looking snowingly busy

Excuse my naivety here, but do the diagonal lines mean snow and the shaded non diagonal mean rain?

 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Not that it’s bound to happen but.. the less deep the better less cold air doesn’t get mixed in as much. And a south correction would be fab for IMBY this is warranted I’ve not had a covering of snow in five years!  

Yes lets have a south correction, Northerners get enough snow - need to share ot out a bit. Last decent snow event I remember here was Jan 2010, got pasted, cant remember what caused it? Easterly, nw? Would be interested to know if anyone rembembers that far back?

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

9 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Well that's just the outlook from data collected yesterday.

But I'd be interested in seeing the charts to support this.

And from what the models are showing is worth hyping considering its from a polar source.

From there it's anyone guess and no BBC forecaster with go much further than five days.

Forecasting is complicated at the best of times, but rather than go all in, they try to keep forecasting as accurate as possible.

So saying it's going to be blizzard conditions when there's possiblity it might not happen is just second guessing but if there's enough support then forecasts will reflect this.

So as I've suggested the models are a tool to help human input for actual weather outcomes.

So if we took your post as gospel,

then it's possible it could confuse the actual outcome the same goes for any forecaster.

As it stands,

my opinion is a wintry looking outlook,

even if rain and sleet features down here on the sunny Costa south coast.

Yes fair play, i understand and thanks for the explanation.

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Still too much uncertainty in the exact dominant wind component, this has repercussions on the moderation at the boundary level. Though with the very cold 500mb heights, the more convective showers (Increased updrafts & downdrafts) could see wet snow mixed in almost anywhere. For reading the charts in regard to snow chances cite back to Nick F's detailed post a few pages back. 

Thanks Matt I,ll take a look

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the snow depth chart in centimetres so although GFS overdoes these - suggests not without interest although Exmoor / Dartmoor favoured more for significant accumulations obviously.

At least in with a shout then! Ill take that right now, Thank You. 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And just for good measure as if the run isn't action packed enough, by 384 we look heading towards a technical SSW for good measure as well.

Cant really read the charts, is there any luck for the south west please? Rather snow starved down here, 2010 being the last significant event.