Bazray

Met office forecast looking good. Dry, sometimes bright weather and light winds will predominate in the UK throughout next week, with increasing amounts of overnight frost. Rain or drizzle and stronger winds are possible at times in northwestern areas. Temperatures at the start of next week will be around average for the time of year, and probably slightly above average in the north. However, there will be a trend toward colder weather by the end of the week and into the following week, as winds turn predominately easterly. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant

The models are just a bunch of man made algorithms, Sort of like a calculator, but instead of being asked questions based upon fact, like what is the result of 1+1 it has to predict the outcome of events in the future, where the input of data has not been resolved yet. Trend is the friend here, not taking every run as gospel, because the fact is the model is just outputting a semi-educated guess till we get to a closer range and until then it will flip-flop from run-to-run.

Totally mad in there tonight, not good for ones health, wondering if have lost the abilty to decipher English after reading the last few pages!

Was a good and important result for us and Thank you for Big Virgil,. Loved the bit where he (VVD) roamed forward, lost the ball and got booed and had a little chuckle, quality. you absolutly mugged us for £75m, is he worth anything near that, hell no, did we need him desperately, hell yes. Looks super cool, almost a bit laid back, but no doubt ouzes class. edit and Mane, not so much Lovren lol.

Getting a bit sick of model watching, would prefer a bit of curtain twiching and seeing a bit of snow on the lampost. Something is brewing out there, I can feel it

Well its great to be sat at the table with a good hand, like having an open ended flush, odds are good, just need the cards to fall for us - if not, at least we have the consolation of spring / summer just around the corner. Happy days.

So have you stopped tapping your fingers now lol

Ill take a 70% chance all day long. This SSW looks to be a good one.

Someone posted earlier he was speaking to someone at the met office and he believed a 70% chance for the cold spell towards the end of the month to occur, we have a good chance, hopefully once the SSW kicks in it all starts to firm up and become a bit clearer.

Quite often the models will chop and change when a large atmospheric driver flips and causes a pattern change in the lower atmosphere and this has been the case over the last few days. But as the SSW impacts start to come in the high resolution part of the models, i.e. out to 10 days with most models, then we may start to firm up on what lies in store and whether indeed we will see high latitude blocking manifest to our north and northeast to bring a cold end to the month. But there is no guarantees of such a pattern transpiring, given what I’ve already described about not all SSW events leadi

And to expand on that a little, here is a quote from the Netweather article regarding SSW and the effects on our weather. "Quite often the models will chop and change when a large atmospheric driver flips and causes a pattern change in the lower atmosphere and this has been the case over the last few days. But as the SSW impacts start to come in the high resolution part of the models, i.e. out to 10 days with most models, then we may start to firm up on what lies in store and whether indeed we will see high latitude blocking manifest to our north and northeast to bring a cold end to the m

Don't know if should get shorts and t-shirts out or thermals going of the coments on here. if past experience is anything to go by, the umberella would be a safe bet.

Been downgraded now, my single flake at 20:00 has been turned to rain. :.-(

Thats progress - nice

Have just been upgraded to a single flake at 20:00 quite excited, shows just how snow starved we are down here - think will go out driving tonight to some higher ground and see if can do a bit better

No we dont like wind and rain south of the M4 - but hey, you kind of get used to it. If we cant get a few grains of snow out of this setup, might as well give up

Forgetting about the cold and snow for a minute - how much potential does this storm have, looks pretty nasty!

32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said: Many many ECM ensembles take the runner low even further south - increasingly the risk of an M4 SOUTH event

Unlikely, never underestimate the force of the M4 shield!

The classic M4 chop

Bloody typical edit: tuesday looks ok though

Excuse my naivety here, but do the diagonal lines mean snow and the shaded non diagonal mean rain?

Yes lets have a south correction, Northerners get enough snow - need to share ot out a bit. Last decent snow event I remember here was Jan 2010, got pasted, cant remember what caused it? Easterly, nw? Would be interested to know if anyone rembembers that far back?

Yes fair play, i understand and thanks for the explanation.

Thanks Matt I,ll take a look