terrier
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I see that the green blob of tripe is back for next week now on the GFS00z. What do we have to do in the U.K. to get some high pressure building in lol. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well no comments In almost 12hrs says it all really. GFS00z for next week isn’t pretty viewing. Especially next Thursday looks very wet for central parts of England. And before that looks like showers or longer spells of rain. Not great although the south east may not fair to bad. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So what can we take from tonight’s GFS12Z. Well the bank holiday weekend isn’t looking as bad as it did a few days ago thankfully. But it then seems like further bands of heavy rain next week and feeling cool. Looks like the south east will fair the best. But can’t see anything overly settled on the horizon. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thankfully it’s at day 10 so very much deep FI. The gfs has been throwing out all sorts of output at the day 10 range lately. From cool northwesterly’s to warm southwesterly’s so all to play for. The met seems to be going with. Settled early September so I wouldn’t worry too much yet!! -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah have to admit I’ve also spotted this over the last few runs. Looks as you say we could have some very cool and wet weather out towards the end of the gfs run. But as you say it’s all fi at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
How to sum up the GFS and UKMO tonight in 2 emotes -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That gfs06z output certainly wasn’t showery that was full on frontal rain unfortunately. Time for it to change though I will admit -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You’ve spelt horrendous wrong lol. But all joking aside that GFS06Z and also the UKMO are absolutely awful. Next week is a complete and utter wash out. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jesus wept if that GFS06Z is anywhere close for this weekend and next week we can pretty much forget any dry days. That is bloody awful -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hopefully it won’t be as bad as the models are predicting. Even if it’s sunshine and showers it won’t feel bad in any sunnier spells. Fingers crossed for you -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah I think the technical term is Sod’s Law. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sorry I was more on about this weekend and next week. Saturday & Sunday looks a complete wash out for many. Then early part of next week also looks showery or longer spells of rain. Yes I realise that low pressure into the following weekend could move. But on the last two weekends just gone it’s been pretty spot on. And you know that Sod’s Law it will no doubt be correct again. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes next week looks a proper shocker on this morning’s GFS00z a very wet weekend coming up. Then next week it’s showers or longer spells of rain and cool temps. Then another low pressure system for the following weekend too. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hope you have a good time. We decided to cancel a few weeks ago. Was supposed to be attending the Scarborough cricket festival next week. But thankfully after seeing tonight’s GFS & ECM looks like we have made the right decision this time. -
Well all I can say after looking at this weekend and next week is thank goodness I cancelled my week in Scarborough. Looks bloody awful on the GFS!!!
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well the silence says it all tonight. The GFS tonight is awful. Right out to T384 we have showers or longer spells of rain and cooler than average temperatures. Proper poor for July. Who would have thought this time last year we were baking in 40c heat. What a difference a year makes. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As he says though the models are still struggling with the low this weekend. And next week won’t be a total washout thankfully. So at least family’s that are away next week will have some useable weather too. Let’s see what the GFS & ECM come up with shortly. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So the schools break up on Friday. And the charts from the ECM & GFS are dire. They were some settled days next week on yesterday’s GFS06Z output but that now seems very unlikely. Seems the order of next week is showers or longer spells of rain. Anyone away in this country next week I feel so sorry for. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at the output after this coming weekend isn’t fantastic by any stretch of the imagination. However I do still think they will be plenty of usable weather around into next week. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hopefully not. But Sod’s Law says they will.!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well I’m not sure the GFS has a great handle on what happens after this weekend. Unfortunately it has reverted back to it 00z run. Now the question is was the GFS06Z earlier a rouge run showing thing settling down next week. Who knows. I guess as the old saying goes more runs needed to see where we head after the weekend. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well fingers crossed the GFS12z can build on what the GFS06Z was showing earlier today. Yes the weekend still looks wet but definitely an improvement into next week let’s hope the evening output can continue that trend from earlier -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well after looking at the GFS06Z run it does seem after this weekend things slowly improve. Yes some showers around but not a total rain fest. Now I don’t know if this was a rogue run or not. But definitely looks better next week on that run compared to the GFS00z. Let’s see what happens this evening. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Absolutely horrendous. You couldn’t pick a worst looking chart in high summer if we tried. Next week looks even worse with every model run at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
terrier replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just when you think things couldn’t get much worse the GFS06Z throws out another absolute horrible run.