[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Well the southern contingent are happy tonight in the mad thread midlands south looks to get buried next week. Think for us it’s looking cold but predominantly dry. Think we might have to wait for the second bite of the cherry later in the month going into February. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

As the old saying goes get the cold in place first. But they is no way in hell that ECM is bone dry. As a few have already stated they will be lots of disturbances in that flow for sure. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Ukmo is great again this morning. Cold control from the gem & a cold looking gfs mean. Steady as she goes this morning. Let’s see what the ECM does. But overall another decent set this morning. Winter is certainly just around the corner that’s for sure. ️

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I see the over reaction to one model run from the ECM has begun again. I really do despair at times. Just wait to see where it sits shortly before heading for the nearest viaduct. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Can we please stop this north vs south stuff. Just de rails the thread and gets very tiresome. Sorry mods but had to be said. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

I'd rather get the big dumping of snow first mate, then I would be content even if that was the last of the snow for me!

Problem is you can keep missing out while same places get hit time and time again.

Yeah get what you’re saying but if we all remain in the cold for longer all of us should see some of the white stuff eventually. For me I hope it goes as far south as possible.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Think that low will trend further south as the week goes on. Personally not a bad thing as keeps us in the cold for longer. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Ideally we won’t that low as far south as possible to keep us locked into the cold airmass. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Wow when I logged on earlier this morning a new thread was just starting. Now 15 pages in already something must be brewing in the models. Don’t remember it been this busy in 2010 and that was epic. Anyway great looking charts at the moment. Looking forward to tonight once I get home to check what the GFS icon ecm gem all have to say later on. Exciting times ahead I feel ️

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Well the mad thread should at least be happy this morning. Looks very snowy midlands south on this morning’s output. Should keep them southerners happy for awhile lol  

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Did mention this earlier today but be very wary of those ECM snowfall charts. Those totals are based on basically every flake of snow falling and settling. Basically about as much use as a chocolate tea pot. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Surely we can’t just bin the GFS and go with the UKMO. As was previously stated earlier they are both performing badly at day 5. Think this still has some way to go yet. But to bin the GFS off would surely be foolish. For those that have been here for any length of time will surely agree on that one. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just a quick word of caution over those ECM snowfall prediction charts. They have always shown what falls from the sky to actually settle. They have always overdone it regarding totals. Not saying it can’t happen but just trying to temper expectations regarding totals. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

How many times have we been told not to over analyse each op run. Yes gfs isn’t as good rhis morning nor is the gem but the ukmo is steadfast. Nothing to worry about in my opinion. Still looking Baltic next week with plenty of snow opportunities. Definitely different to the last few Januarys in years gone by.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Right strap yourself in folks almost time for the icon & gfs pub run special. Can see polar bears running down the M4 tonight on the pub run

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

9 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

Love it if terrier is onboard it’s nearly time to open the champagne  

Yeah definitely feeling this one

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Think most of us should see snow next week. Lots of disturbances in that flow looking at the ECM tonight. Don’t think 10cm would be out of the question for higher areas of our region. Bring it on ️

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Wow just catching up after a 12hr shift at work. What a great ECM this evening delivers for all. Can see many getting in on the snow shower activity next week lots of disturbances in that set up shown by the ecm. Bring it on ️

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Think the net weather servers may need an upgrade for tonight if the Ecm6z is anything to go by. The touch paper has been well and truly lit I think. ️

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Gfs06z what a run think it calls for a Boom ️. Winter is coming folks  

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Nothing wrong with this morning’s output Ukmo & gem spectacular gfs also good as is the ecm. Seems some imby’s going on today. Yes not so good further south but last time I looked this was the model output thread. Not the southern regionals lol.  

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Ukmo & gem are absolutely amazing this morning gfs ain’t too shabby either. Let’s see what the ecm has to say. Could be a good day coming up. Fingers crossed ️

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Does anyone else find the mad thread annoying at times. So confusing when it turns into the southern thread every single year. Not sure how they are allowed to get away with it so blatant. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Not a great GFS12z looks like a move towards the ECM. This seems to have been the longest chase ever since December. Seems now we are relying on the GEM. You couldn’t make it up

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Well fingers crossed for the following week on the models. Just seen weather for week ahead and it’s very uninspiring cloudy damp with a few frosts. Let’s hope the date of the 15th of jan hits. Just hope that the ECM later shows something more wintry towards day 9 & 10.