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  1. So we could have all these good looking strat charts and still end up with mild southwesterly Atlantic driven weather. That would be just our luck in the U.K.
  2. Looks like we are now pinning our hopes on a ssw for late December January onwards. But I recall this been progged a few years back. And unfortunately that came to nothing. Now I’m not suggesting this will go the same route. But a ssw doesn’t guarantee us anything for our tiny island. So think its going to part of the fun of the chase. But just because we are hearing the right noises regarding the strat warming let’s try and not throw our toys out the parm if it doesn’t materialise.
  3. Well that ecm and gfs were pretty horrible viewing this morning lots more wind and rain to come. Atlantic is looking too powerful at the moment. Sending dartboard lows our way. Now I see the ec46 is our saviour. But wasn’t it only the last few updates where some were saying ec46 changes like the wind. Then we move onto a ssw. Now the only problem with a ssw is it doesn’t guarantee cold weather for the U.K.. even with a ssw we could end up with very similar to what we have now. Yes a ssw does raise our chances of colder weather. But definitely not a guarantee.
  4. Yes the gfs06z doesn’t make the best reading. But didn’t Steve murr say yesterday give it 48-72hours and watch the models back track to a colder blocked set up. Let’s just wait until the weekend. Because if mr murr is on the money all isn’t lost for this cold spell.
  5. Well the ecm and gfs are horrible this morning for cold and wintry weather. The easterly doesn’t even reach us. Gfs looks like from middle of next week we are back to heavy rain and strong winds. Let’s just hope Steve Murr is on the money with the models been too keen to bring in the Atlantic. But this morning isn’t great for the hunt for cold thread
  6. Could definitely see upgrades to the warnings regarding this storm looking at latest output. Could see north of Scotland and much of northern England seeing gust of 70-80mph as the storm pushes across.
  7. I know this is the hunt for cold. But does seem on the gfs12z we could have some potentially damaging winds Friday into Saturday. Looks like Scotland and northern England could see some pretty damaging winds. Not great.
  8. I agree the ecm does look a lot better this evening. But regarding 7-8c next week I think that will be pretty close. Don’t forget the North Sea is still around 12-14c which will moderate cold to our shores quite considerably.
  9. So confusing some say Ukmo moves towards the ecm. Gfs has stonking cold run incoming. Ecm will climb down later towards the gfs. Not surprised some of us get confused.
  10. Just another quick point about the gfs output at the moment is we have to remember that the North Sea is around 12-14c still so that will definitely moderate the cold to our shores. Definitely will be interesting to see what the ecm goes onto show this evening. Maybe we will see a half way house between the gfs and ecm in the coming model runs.
  11. Well that’s what an amazing run from the gfs06z. But with the ecm not singing from the same hym sheet I’d be very wary of the gfs output at the moment. We must try and remember the ecm is the top performing model in the verification stats. Think all this talk of lake effect snow. And something akin to December 2010 could be wide of the mark. Not trying to be a grinch. Just we need the blocking to set up perfect for our tiny island to be in with a shout. Just a shame these charts aren’t 6 weeks later.
  12. Well this model output at the moment should come with a government health warning. As my parents used to say to me. If something is too true to be believed then it probably is. Think I will remain on the fence for a few more days yet.
  13. terrier

    Hurricane Florence

    So Florence is now a Cat 1 hurricane. Think a lot of people over there will be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Yeah some on the coast are still going to get some flooding unfortunately. But looking at some news reports this morning this doesn’t seem anywhere as bad as first feared thankfully.
  14. Well I’m in Spain as we speak until the 14th of August frosty. Trust me it’s hot. And looking at the ecm it’s heading straight for the U.K. shores aswell enjoy. Hopefully it will still be around on my return.
  15. terrier

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Well next week would be a nice taster of things to come with 36/37c. As week after I’m back to Spain for a month. We’re temps are currently 39/40c