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  1. So the ukmo joins the gfs this evening. But I must be missing something here next week looks warm to hot. But far from dry. Looks like torrential rain with possible flooding issues. Not like people will be able to head to the beach. Suppose the rain will be warmer though.
  2. Well looking at the gfs it’s staggering in its temps. Could be some explosive thunderstorms from that set up. Ecm not as extreme. But one thing we can say is at least the rain will be warmer.
  3. Thankfully at the moment looks like West Yorkshire looks to be in the rain shadow. All the heaviest precipitation looks to be towards the south of us. Not sure if this will change later. I’d rather it stay like this for next few days to avoid our fields getting even wetter. Haven’t even done our 1st cut silage yet.
  4. Heavy snowfall now here at ainley top Huddersfield in last 20mins
  5. Few flakes blowing around in the breeze so far. Don’t think today will amount to very much maybe a few cms for the higher parts of our region. The more concerning think is Thursday now looks a complete bust. With the main band now down over the midlands. And as we have seen before once these low correct south it’s very rare they move back north.
  6. But haven’t you said the gfs is cannon fodder?? So what makes it correct this time if it’s classed as a cannon fodder??
  7. Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies.
  8. Well just seen the country file forecast for the week ahead and let’s just say how underwhelming. Few wintry showers across the country on Monday night into Tuesday. Then a cold feel with a some frosts. Then back into westerly winds by Friday and then becoming milder into the weekend.
  9. So just read through 20+ pages and we have gone from joy to toy slinging in space of 6 hours. Yes the gfs was showing 1947 style charts last night. But we should never discount the ecm. It’s top performance model for a reason. And who’s to say today’s output is correct anyway. They are only model output trying to work out what could happen. Mother Nature can make a fool of us all.
  10. Think we all know until the ecm comes on board we should treat these gfs runs with a huge amount of salt. We all know how much stick the gfs gets and probably rightly so. The ecm is a top performance model for a reason. Let’s hope tomorrow is something similar to these crazy runs from gfs. But until then I’m keeping my feet firmly on the ground. Yes the ecm was cold upto 144 but it’s no where near what the gfs is showing. I’d be putting my money on ecm. Because in the words of Steve murr the gfs isn’t the greatest model out there. Certainly wouldn’t be putting my mortgage on the nirvana charts it throwing out at the moment.
  11. The trend is our friend as they say. Let’s hope the dominoes are starting to fall in our favour. Interesting times ahead me thinks.
  12. Very nice looking ecm at day 10 this evening. Let’s try and remember that day 10 chart is the 17th of January so we still have it all to play for. As the winter of 1947 didn’t get going until the 23rd of January and never stopped until March.
  13. Not a bad gfs run this morning. Shame it’s the gfs though. Let’s see what the ecm says looks ok so far though.
  14. Nice looking ukmo this evening could lead to a few possibilities heading forward. Be nice to see where the ecm heads at 168 later on. As ever gonna ignore the gfs as it’s absolutely cannon fodder or so we are told....
  15. Very true if things can go wrong they usually do for the U.K. yes gfs06z looks nice but we are told it’s cannon fodder model and to stick with the European models. So for now I’m disregarding the gfs output. Because as Steve murr has told us countless times it is 5th in the stats for a reason. Hopefully we will see a better ecm and Ukmo later on.
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