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  1. not a fan of thunderstorms in my local vicinity (l dislike having to disconnect all my sensitive equipment), but l heard thunder in the distance, according to the lightning app closest strike was 4miles away from Hereford.
  2. lm good at stress testing stuff well breaking mostly lol, run a few forums myself so l get the general idea of whats being asked. wouldnt mind clicking around. would be interesting to know the software you are contemplating to change to unless there are a few possibilities..
  3. by the looks of it it seems to be this page: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=wist;sess= the 7 days forecast only give storm potential of 15% but the will it thunder page says 32% (lm looking at the hereford forecast btw), l looked just after last nights update and also after this mornings and it doesnt seem to match data.
  4. l think the data is messing up again, looking at the "will it" pages and it says 32% for today and tomorrow for storm risk however its showing different information for tomorrow.
  5. lm getting the same issue as the user above, even your link gives off similar data, tho lm trying to load hereford forecasts.
  6. l noticed that as well, in fact l dont believe any of the shown gfs models have changed since tuesday as nothing has changed in the outputs.
  7. but the storm forecasts that the will it thunder page uses l assume is still NMM and l guess the GFS-P its kinda like NMM but gives a bit more resolution compared to the normal GFS.
  8. just seen the update notice on the GFS page, are you starting to use NMM models on the new updated version? reason l ask is the significant differences in whats forecast. in fact lve just compared the results for friday and there are pretty huge variations in the storm forecast for friday between the GFS and the GFS-P viewer on both the cape and storm forecast model, for example on the GFS model page it doesnt show my area covered where as the GFS-P does have my area and a chunk of the west midlands covered, even the cape models seem very different.
  9. so l guess given the above information, l kinda wonder how valid the GFS are. dont get me wrong its been interesting learning a little. but the difference between the GFS and NMM going by how wildly the numbers differ seems to make me wonder the point of the GFS given that from what lve seen over the past few weeks that there have been times where potential has been high on the areas you have used NMM where as the GFS has always showed low probability.. its really added to my confusion (which l must admit is somewhat clearer now l know two different models are used, but the fluctuations betwee
  10. thanks for the clarification, however it does still confuse me why two different variables are used.. to be more specific the storm forecast model seems to use a somewhat similar way to gather storm potential into percentages, and since you use a similar system to work out possibility elsewhere it kinda throws me off that you wouldnt use the higher res model for the storm forecast.. that said l was kind of confused a few days ago at the high possibility given to possible storms despite there being no convective cloud being forecast (ld always assumed you need convective cloud for storms to
  11. lm to understand that they are released every 4 hours? and pages like the storm forecast/will it thunder pages are every 6 hours... was just wondering if there was any possibility of some sort of timer basically telling us when the next run will be released. on a completely unrelated subject the storm forecast map seems pretty confusing, the will it thunder/storm forecasts sometimes give higher numbers than the storm forecast map seems to suggest.. a good example would be that currently its suggesting a 42% chance (earlier it was 52%) yet when looking at the storm forecast map at most
  12. looks like the met office has stopped tracking Gonzalo, had been following its trajectory for a few days but its been removed now.
  13. lm just curious, are the probabilities based on previous GFS runs? or current ones? reason lm curious is other sites which l view GFS outputs at seem to show different potention along with charts lve looked at here which makes me wonder if when you work out the percentages of possibility of thunderstorms that you derive the potential based on the previous run rather than the current one.
  14. wasnt expecting what we got yesterday, 4 storms in one day... two with frequent lightning, the other two had a couple of flashes. (am in hereford, and annoyingly l had to be out in one of them shopping).
  15. still even more confused tho, according to Pauls post lm within the "slight" risk area but the outputs on the forecast page give zero percentage of anything kicking off here today.. and lve looked at the charts and from what basic knowledge l have its left me confused how l could be in a slight area when the latest forecast run shows no percentage (that said my guess is on the lunchtime run at 12.30ish my guess is the predictions from midnight may reappear considering the past few times possibilities shot up).
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