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Skullzrulerz

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Everything posted by Skullzrulerz

  1. You might be right if it was for the Cairngorms they would get a absolute pasting to say the last Rest of England ? Sounds like cold rain and average temperatures A huge difference to the latest 12z and yesterday 12z I don't think I need to say no more ..
  2. In general GFS is only slightly better then last night but it's miles away from what showing the last few days... It's either pushed back further or has been wiped out It's hard to believe overnight we're gone from a harsh cold spell to a topper but it was somewhat expected with seasonal forecasts mostly stating a cold spell around mid month Unless things start changing soon I can't see anything noteworthy yet
  3. So it seems that the rogue model was right unfortunately as both ECM/GFS has moved towards it You would of thought overnight judging by some of the reaction we was getting mild southwest weather with a Barret for measure So thankfully there's still a bit of time for things to change mild or cold point of view Also to note that most of the seasonal weather only noted that it was going to be a cold outbreak and some snow for the north and nothing more
  4. What a disappointing GFS run however to be fair it was kind of expected in the end as It clearly over done the heights with previous runs I'm fully aware that the UKMO is the rogue model to some due to what it's showing but it definitely can't be discounted and it could be right all along Give a few more days before making any conclusions
  5. That low is a concern if you want that wedge to keep holding not to mention it's further West too
  6. Like you said a really crucial set of runs coming up we need to UKMO to join the rest of the group you just get that feeling even that rouge one theres always that chance of the pack joining it. At least now its starting to come into a reliable time frame
  7. At least cornwall hits the jackpot! About time we see a decent snow event down here A Incredible GFS 12z run though if only it could happen...hopefully it could be a start of a trend?
  8. It's looks like someone decided to throw the "polar vortex at us"
  9. Honestly in my point of view these charts never see to get to T0 let alone into a reliable timeframe it's just feels like we're chasing fl charts till oblivion... Though thankfully we could be in a lot of a worse position at the moment but looking forward it's more of the same and a +Nao for a at least 2 weeks
  10. Of course the ECM may be truly right but as we seen in many cases we trend to get something in the middle just like the current spell were in now I just think it's far too out and needs to be in the short term before we start to get a tad excited But we shall see
  11. I'm not too convinced by the ECM or GFS even though the last few days it had maintained a trend of as late like most of the time expect a half way house
  12.  Based on current updates the AO is set to go highly positive with most members around 2-6 However the NAO looks to be going into a somewhat more neutral state or sightly positive at the turn of the month
  13. Sorry but can you explain further? What exactly is "amplification" ? Is the ECM better or worse on this time?
  14. After seeing the last few days here I have also have to agree with this statement personnely anythings besides a short lived northerly around the end of the month/into December is what were going to get Not to help that there's support for +NAO for next month doesn't help matters... It hasn't helped with a few that with biased views or this model is "in the bin" when it's not showing what they want I think I sit on the side lines for the now and hope we might just get lucky with a cold spell
  15. Seen a lot of "bin" posts as of late I do think however more runs are needed as never know this could be right ?
  16. I have to agree with this unfortunately as only from one set of runs this morning I do think it's a bit hyped up in here You need to near cross model agreement before anything else or some folk are going to be dispointed Not to mention it's somewhat in the median/long term a lot of things can change for the better or worse
  17. And this has sadly happened in most cases GFS backs down and goes along the lines of the ECM As I said if the ECM is showing the cold charts you definitely have got a increased chance of it coming off
  18. Absolutely true but don't forget the ECM/ukmo has also stuck to there guns with more or less mild and unsettled I do think we need to keep our hopes somewhat low due to fact that most of these charts are over a week out at best and not to mention it will change every time till the somewhat reliable timeframe Personnely I would rather see the ECM showing the cold charts not the gfs as last year it just didn't deliver
  19. Looks like it might be starting to North according to radar if any one could confirm?
  20. Let's hope it goes on track soon for the sake of Florida esp as people are not as aware it may be going off track or such?
  21. Absolutely could be a lot worse for the states but mind you it's not over till it's over ...
  22. Its seems that a landfall of sorts regards Florida have lowered somewhat as some models have it east then previous runs though of course it can change but I honestly don't think it'd going to happen
  23. A very serious situation at the moment as it's due to landfall in the next few hours in the Bahamas However Florida still remains the question as it's next landfall ? What are the chances of it making landfall it's seems to be really close call?
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