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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Let's not get too excited about the end of the ECM run. The main thing to take away from today is that the big 3 all support the idea of that high pressure being a lot more resilient than was thought a few days ago, with high pressure largely influencing the UK in the mid-range. That itself is very encouraging, looks like the models initially overestimated the strength of the Atlantic, lets see how far the backtracking goes.
  2. It's opposite day for the GFS Parallel, warm scandi high keeping the cold Atlantic away http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs2522.gif Though not a bad run at all, certainly seems drier than a lot of the previous model outputs.
  3. Very hard to predict and they usually leave some form of residual energy in the Atlantic. 2012/13 was a classic example of this. The Atlantic was still very active following the SSW, yet even with a very weak block to our North/Northeast, we managed to see a prolonged cold spell with the block managing to undercut. As long as we get some sort of block to our NW, N or NE, we will see low pressure systems rapidly disintegrate as they approach the block, and if low pressures do manage to push the block away, the block always has the potential to rebuild, as with 2012/13. This is what we were up against during the cold spell, a very nasty looking atlantic and a very weak looking block, yet we still got a good 10 day cold spell, followed by more cold spells later: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2013/avn/Rtavn00120130119.png
  4. While I do think the Atlantic will easily win out against the block, the progression from the models is being way too overplayed imo. In the space of a day we go from http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif to http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif That is ridiculous.
  5. What's everyone's thoughts on the likelyhood and timing of a possible major warming? With the ENSO heading towards an El Nino phase, the easterly QBO and the relatively low solar flux I would hazard a guess at a Christmas SSW.
  6. I'm glad this Shannon is feeling for us at this difficult time. It's shannon entropy I believe Though I agree that's what could be causing this, if I remember right, it was characterised by a neutral AO despite a weakened vortex, which is what is being forecast for the next week.
  7. I think it's becoming very clear that the outbreak of the canadian vortex lobe into East USA will just heighten the temperature gradient in the Atlantic and fire up the low pressure systems, destroying any block with ease. Not seeing any shot at cold for at least 20-25 days.
  8. GFS 12z shows a much more southerly tracking low in the North Atlantic than the 06z before, leaving a bit of space for high pressure near the Greenland/East Canada area.. Not really expecting anything to come from it though as all the pros seem to think mild and unsettled will win in the end. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif
  9. Good end to the parallel, some brilliant WAA over Greenland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs2162.gif
  10. Is there any way of knowing where the wave breaking events take place based on the berlin charts? They only offer latitude vs height. Anyway of finding out the longitude too?
  11. GFS op brings in the Canada vortex into play and completely ruins the block. This is a lot more delayed in the GFS Para with some good heights in the West Atlantic/East Canada http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1681.gif Though unfortunately the vortex is seen again just 24 hours later, having completely displaced that high http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1921.gif I think the parallel is being too progressive in bringing in that canadian vortex lobe there, no way can such a change happen in less than a day
  12. We have that vortex lobe near Svalbard attempting to move South as with the ECM., definite upgrade on the 12z. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif Get the block set up first in the next 5-10 days and then this low pushing south can provide some cold uppers from fay 15 onwards. There's still loads to play for.
  13. The building blocks are there at T120 when we get the severely weakened Canada vortex lobe (seen on both GFS 12z and especially ECM 12z), allowing a brief gap to form in the Atlantic, which gives the high pressure space to retrogress west in the ECM run. Still a long way away from anything solid, but the signs are there. One thing's for sure, we're not at 10% anymore.
  14. Oh damn is that low to the east of Greenland heading south December 2010 style?
  15. Worried about the lack of low pressure in Russia though, as there's then nothing to lock the high pressure to our Northwest. However, November 2010 looked equally as hopeless in that department: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2010/avn/Rtavn00120101120.png Then in a matter of days we got the block set up: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2010/avn/Rtavn00120101123.png Imo, correct me if I'm wrong, we should be looking for: a split between the UK low and the Newfoundland lows, allowing the high pressure to our north some space to move into to the west. Sudden cyclogenesis in the central Europe area ECM is hinting at the first, so some encouraging signs.
  16. Link between the UK low and West Atlantic low is gone! Hopefully that is enhanced in day 7+, need that high pressure to move west into Greenland. Though we have already seen a massive shift west in the 12z compared to the 00z. Slowly getting there!
  17. This high pressure looks a lot more prone to being cut off from Russia, hopefully we get those lows to the west and North of Ukraine closing the gap in the rest of the run http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.gif
  18. Upstream pattern looking much better with much weaker lows in Canada/West Atlantic.
  19. This, the possibility of a block is at least beyond 10 days and most likely in the 15-20 day range.
  20. Basically the positive pressure anomaly is so high that it's off the scale.
  21. Regardless of whether the UK is cold or mild in the mid-term, the story has consistently been the same; a weak polar vortex. As long as this remains, then there will be opportunities for a favourable block to occur. That's all we can ask for at the moment.
  22. JMA and ECM both going for heights building to our Northwest towards the end of their runs. I keep thinking it's too early for all this but then I remember the best cold spell in my memory occurred in November.
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