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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Doesn't look like we'll get the undercut based on t144, though ECM is keen to get that vortex into russia/Scandinavia.
  2. "Indeed Joe, Thanks. I just want to keep the flow of the thread going rather than personal debates amongst members," It was hardly personal, it was two members giving differing opinions on what a model was showing, exactly what this thread should be about
  3. I think this first shot at cold will get away from us and we will end up with high pressure too close to the UK. However, it's good to see that most models still keep low pressure to our South. This could help in the coming days as a further burst of wave breaking is expected which will help to push the bulk of the Polar Vortex to the Southeast of the Pole and into Russia. I actually think this FI run is a good shout at what will happen, with high pressures making their way towards the Pole from the Canada region, let's hope we end up in a favorable position for a block.
  4. PV starting to look very stretched, maybe a build of high pressure towards Scandi is on?
  5. The event is 80 hours away, and a clear signal has been given again and again - widespread upper temperatures of -2 and dew points above zero for most.
  6. Larger warm sector with this low pressure, snow event for lower ground looks very unlikely.
  7. I think one thing that will prevent us from getting a good block is that the PV is clearly reluctant to sink too far South. We need solid low pressure in Southern Scandinavia to force a block to our Northwest. I still hold hope for something better in early December though. Still more disruption to the lower stratospheric vortex being forecast with warmings expected over Greenland. Could orientate the vortex more in our favour and get it to sink into Scandinavia.
  8. GFS gone shortwave crazy again, it's sending way too much energy over the top of the high. That high pressure is looking very weak, I hope this is just a poor run from the operational and we see it changed at 18z. One alternative is that we could see a Greenland high earlier than expected of course...
  9. We have the classic elongated west Atlantic Low setting up, could be seeing a Greenland High in FI.
  10. To be fair I don't think anyone could have called the bulk of the high sinking towards South Russia and then a tiny part of the High cutting off and going on a 1 man crusade against the vortex It just highlights the uncertainty in the models and I'd like to point out again that I don't think we will see such an intact vortex in 8 days time like the ECM is showing.
  11. I should add though that I don't buy this run at all. There is no way the vortex will be that much intact in 10 days time. We will see gaps appear which will aid our high pressure to stay to our North, unlike the end of todays 12z run.
  12. PV is still very much intact, the last 2 frames aren't going to be nice imo, I can see that high sinking.
  13. ECM makes it, surrounded by lows to the south so it can't sink.
  14. That's a nice line of lows building up in the Atlantic, I hope that aids the retrogression of high pressure to our Northwest.
  15. ECM and UKMO still keep some form of link between the Atlantic High and North Pole High. GFS in typical fashion says no to that and ramps up the low pressures to the North of our block.
  16. Looks like we're going to get high pressure moving into Greenland in FI again. We need to keep an eye on that Atlantic high that joins in after our toppled high of the initial cold spell.
  17. Stronger Iberian low, could be so important for a reload.
  18. Weird looking 18z, high pressure in the Atlantic is very weak but low pressure doesn't seem to want to claim the area either.
  19. Hmm, I'm not sure if this is an error, but the ECM has suddenly picked up on a massive increase in wave-2 breaking in 7-10 days time. I'm skeptical because this was nowhere to be seen in forecasts in the previous few days. Can't post images yet sorry: http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=f240&var=ha2&lng=eng
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