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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Snowy L
    So much shortwave drama to get through, the differences between the ECM and GFS even at 96 hours is huge.
  2. Snowy L
    Looks like it's GFS shortwave nightmare vs ECM perfect Greenland High again. Unfortunately for us GFS has almost always been right for these scenarios in the last few years.
  3. Snowy L
    Interesting 18z, with a proper Greenland High established, the stratosphere charts are going for Atlantic based warming in 2 weeks. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121718/gfsnh-10-384.png?18
  4. Snowy L
    GFS has very quickly changed its tune regarding NW Eurasia heights. Looking increasingly likely that low pressure will move into West Russia and disrupt any wave breaking. Aleutian low signal is becoming a bit weak too. Might have to wait a bit longer for that SSW, maybe mid-late January. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif
  5. Snowy L
    There's always time for a split though right that could possibly occur after this first warming and displacement? Back in Dec 2012 we only saw the first signs of a second warming producing a split in the FI of the December 25th outputs.
  6. Snowy L
    When did this happen? The only time I remember this happening was in 2012/13 in January and we still got a good cold spell. If anything the mix of scandi high + Greenland vortex gave us more snow as massive lows collided with the cold air.
  7. Snowy L
    With the Aleutian low going nowhere these next few weeks (thanks to El Nino) and heights over NW Eurasia there is no reason why we won't see multiple warmings over the next few weeks.
  8. Snowy L
    850 temperatures in the Baffin bay area looking so much better on this run. Looks like a good northerly set up as well, this is only in 6 days time yet the difference between the 06z is pretty big. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.gif
  9. Snowy L
    It's not within the reliable timeframe I guess, though it's expected as we will likely see the formation of 2 major tropospheric pecurrsors to wave 1 breaking in the next 7-10 days. Both ECM and GFS are going for low height anomalies over the Aleutian Islands and higher anomalies over Northwest Eurasia. GFS in particular shows this nicely http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  10. Snowy L
    GFS really ramping up that warming now, clearest one yet:
  11. Snowy L
    Not too much difference between the 12z and 18z, one thing is that in the 7+ day range the vortex area over Greenland looks smaller compared to the 12z.
  12. Snowy L
    I think that has been put on hold by lower pressure over Siberia/Mongolia, which has stopped the formation of the Siberian high, which is the major wave-1 producer. It looks like this low pressure will leave throughout the next week and high pressure will begin to build again. A common theme in the last couple of days from the GFS FI is the emergence of a big siberian high at day 10+, which may be the reason for a bit of a warming in the stratosphere being predicted in a couple of weeks.
  13. Snowy L
    Would trust MOGREPs ahead of any other chart. That model nailed the failed easterly in Dec 2012, the cold spell in Late Jan-April 2013 and the failed attacks on the vortex in winter 2014.
  14. Snowy L
    So in around 10-15 days, it begins?
  15. Snowy L
    I'm guessing it would end up circling the cold area and attack from Siberia like these warmings almost always seem to do. These slight warmings at t360+ have been appearing and disappearing from the GFS for a couple of days now, the parallel seems particularly keen to start a warming in late FI. Can't take it seriously though, I think last year we found out the hard way that these stratosphere charts have their own FI threshold and that it is a lot earlier than most thought it was.
  16. Snowy L
    Thank you very much Both GFS models continuing with the idea of the azores high ridging North and low pressures moving along the top of it. Could become quite cold in central and Northern areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfseur.html
  17. Snowy L
    Do you know where I can find those MJO height composites for each month?
  18. Snowy L
    Azores high ridging in is what has constantly denied the jet diving south these last 2 winters.
  19. Snowy L
    Really unfortunate placement of the Greenland lobe though, need further wave breaking originating in the North Atlantic.
  20. Snowy L
    We can always get a further warming from the North Atlantic as a result of wave-2 push the Grenland lobe further west, as with 2012/13.
  21. Snowy L
    The trend that sees the block fade away always starts at 240+ as soon as we get into the low res.
  22. Snowy L
    Jamstec is also going for a colder than average winter for the UK, the Ma-May one is especially cold, which suggests to me an SSW in late Decembe/early Jan and a lot of high lattitude blocking around throughout Feb, March and April. El Nino years usually do see a warm start to winter and a cold 2nd half, most likely because of the vortex being much weaker and disorganized in El Nino yeas. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html
  23. Snowy L
    Big warming being picked up on by the 12z GFS, hopefully this is the same signal that the ECM has seen.
  24. Snowy L
    We got a Scandi high from the 2013 January SSW and the 2012 February SSW. They're very common after SSWs because with displacement SSWs the Scandi high is the major precursor for the SSW to happen. So after the SSW all that needs to happen is for the high to move west, which is a lot easier after an SSW because of the reversal of zonal winds.
  25. Snowy L
    A study has shown a decent correlaion with flux, polar geopotential heights and the QBO. No such link has been found with the AP index. So that's probably why solar flux is discussed more.
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