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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Here was me worrying Chris Fawkes had access to GLOSEA when in actual fact he was basing his no downwelling fearmongering on the GEFS . It is the very worst of the most common stratosphere models.
  2. GFS miles away from everyone else at around D10 because it keeps inexplicably ballooning low pressure systems near the UK and Iceland. The only world where this happens is if the SSW has 0% impact on the troposphere.
  3. ECM is fine again, no deep lows in the Iceland area. We really are in the same place we were in the days before the 2013 SSW. I think the fact this SSW was forecast so long ago, end of November if I remember correctly, some fatigue has set in. The SSW has not happened yet. If this SSW follows the 2013 path, then first week of Jan we will see lows weakening in our area/ Iceland then middle of Jan we will see northern blocking. Also some baseless forecasts of cold in the middle of December and then the end of December by a few won't have helped the whole fatigue issue.
  4. Also worth remembering we are still not at reversal, that is expected to happen on New Years Day. This is just 5 days earlier than the 2013 SSW. We had to wait 10 days for Northern Blocking in 2013. I don't think it's too unrealistic to expect the same this time too, which would put us at the 11th of January to see some kind of northern blocking. In the meantime as I mentioned before I think the ECM has the right idea for the first week of January, which is for Atlantic depressions to start rapidly losing strength as they approach the UK/Iceland area.
  5. Just wait when ICON turns on us too and then we will all be hailing the BOM.
  6. Under normal circumstances yes, not when a disruption to the vortex has happened. During the last two SSWs ECM went for cold and GFS went for mild, ECM won both times. GFS is just wrong at d8-d12. The Iceland/East Greenland area is where our gap in the split vortex will be during the next few days. ECM is beginning to see this in its tropospheric output by starting to rapidly weaken lows that approach this area. GFS bringing a huge polar vortex over the East Greenland region in the mid range is going to be way off imo.
  7. I wouldn't be too upset at the models. This always happens, charts show rubbish until the SSW happens then the trigger ridge for Northern blocking appears out of nowhere. The geopotential height charts in the stratosphere look brilliant and these charts are getting into the high res timeframe now. I have no doubt the models will start showings southerly tracking jet in the day 8-12 range over the next few days. It should be a huge red flag that models are showing the main tropospheric vortex being right over the area where there is a massive absence of vortex in the stratosphere.
  8. Even better ridging on the 18z Parallel, Scotland even catches a brief passing Northerly. Think we will get a good split on this run. Does the parallel do 10hpa geopotential height charts yet?
  9. Yep and the temperatures match the positioning really well too. Better split on this run, not quite completely split yet though. Every run that has a better attempt at the high getting North gives a better split. This seemingly boring period is actually very important, we need to see that ridge push towards Iceland at days 9-15.
  10. Getting a bit of WAA with our high at day 9. 12z hinted at this too before brushing it away in the very first low res time point at t252.
  11. That has to be a record breaking positive AO right there Absolutely disgusting run in all levels of the atmosphere.
  12. Thing is during the last two SSWs in 2013 and 2018 we were very lucky to see two examples of perfect splits - a displacement followed immediately by a clear split. We still don't know what's happening with the potential split, whether it will be a partial one, a full one or even if it will happen at all. I think it's clear the models are struggling with forecasting what happens after the displacement as the fate of the vortex is still unknown after that.
  13. At least its starting to get those lows elongating in the Atlantic at d7-10. I think it's a small step towards the GFS.
  14. I actually think it's the high getting into that position North of the UK that causes the stratospheric split, as this is a key enhancer of wave-2. The high pressure heading North happens at day 10 then we see the strat vortex begin to split at day 13. Finally GFS sees some pressure on the vortex from our side of the Pole. Figure c is a mean of the state of the troposphere leading to a vortex split.
  15. That's a superficial split, follow the isobars outside the lobes, the two lobes are still encased in one polar vortex that the High pressure has failed to cut through. It is also suffering from the same problem as the GFS in that there is zero pressure on the vortex from our side of the North Pole. The vortex will recover from that. For reference this is a real vortex split Two completely separate lobes with no isobars linking them.
  16. The problem with just waiting and expecting things to magically change in 10 days is the troposphere effects what happens in the strat. If we keep seeing this completely flat pattern in the Atlantic then that is a big absence of a key tropospheric precursor of wave-2. We can see this in the GFS, especially the OP where it refuses to split the vortex after displacement. So yes there is every reason to worry because If We don't get a split the likelihood is we will just have a small window of opportunity after displacement and then the vortex will be fit and healthy again a couple of weeks later.
  17. Anything that doesn't show high pressure getting up to at least the UK between Christmas and new year should be discarded immediately. Met Office are very confident of that happening.
  18. This, personally I would wait at least a week until the initial displacement of the vortex happening is factored into the models at the starting point at least. At the moment, the models have the vortex over Greenland (correct as of now), but they continue to see it there, GFS in particular sticking with this throughout its runs.
  19. This time GFS is on its own in refusing to get a warming started on our side of the North pole. GFs para and ECM get there.
  20. Problem is there is no volality at all in the GFS. It has consistently shown a brief mid latitude block that eventually sinks when bizarrely the polar vortex gets its act together after an SSW.
  21. To be fair if the trop matches the stratosphere that is exactly what we should be seeing in a couple of weeks. Split vortex, biggest lobe being in Russia, residual one being in Canada.
  22. GFS OP has now given up on the SSW. Deep cold recovering quickly after a minor warming. What do the GEFS say?
  23. Still concerning that the OP is not going for a reversal while every single GEFS member convincingly does with the average wind speed being -15. One of them is going to have their reputations permanently ruined in a couple of weeks.
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