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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Looking at the mid range forecasts I'm guessing the troposphere and stratosphere are starting to become more connected? If so, perfect timing for a stratospheric warming to begin.
  2. Sharp rise in Ap and flux, looks like we're getting a sunspot soon.
  3. Descending phase of solar cycle actually correlates with milder than average winters. We are past that now.
  4. I just cannot understand why people want northern blocking and undercutting lows in September/October. Best case scenario you will get sunshine and rain showers with maybe a few ground frosts. What happens more often is days like today where the UK is right in the firing line of low pressure systems. Why do people want this? It stops people doing outdoor activities, it turns 30 minute commutes into hour commutes and if it continues much longer it's going to get downright dangerous. One thing is for certain you will not see a flake of snow unless you stand on the summit of Ben Nevis. Weird seeing the excitement of undercuts on the model thread when the reality of what it will bring is endless rain and 10C.
  5. Wonder what the next update regarding solar cycle 25 forecasts will be. I remember at the start of the year there were quite a few forecasts predicting activity will have started climbing in summer. That obviously hasn't happened and we have some lengthy spotless runs in the last few months. The longer this goes on you would think it becomes more likely cycle 25 will be similar to 24 at best and possibly even weaker.
  6. Solar flux is now at 65.7 pretty much as low as you can get.
  7. Cambridge down to 36. Unless Northolt and Heathrow go on a late rally the record stays.
  8. The standard rule is .5 and above gets rounded up and .4 and below gets rounded down so it could be anywhere from 37.5 to 38.4 at Cambridge.
  9. We don't know if its rounded up or down so let's say 38.4C
  10. Heathrow and Northolt both back up to 37C. One last push from them come on lol.
  11. East Midlands Airport, my closest weather station, saying 35C. Is that the all time record for this area broken?
  12. Cambridge is 37C as of 14.20. If the sun can hold out until 4pm the record is broken imo.
  13. Looks like theres no chance of that happenning tonight. Looks like the models have failed to take into account a sea breeze affecting east anglia. Temperatures are already down to 22-24C in the area where the models thought would stay above 23C tonight.
  14. 31C has been hit so that's the hottest of the year so for.
  15. Was worried the cloud this morning would ruin today but temperatures are back on track. Currently 30C.
  16. Took 3 hours for that crap to go. Currently 21C in this scorching "heatwave". Will be lucky to hit 25C nevermind 35C.
  17. Completely cloudy for 2 hours now with no end in sight. Already 3C behind forecasts. Great start to this "heatwave".
  18. That's an odd temperature profile with places northwest of London being warmer.
  19. All 3 models with good agreement on 850hpa temperatures on Thursday, 15c and 20c lines around Manchester and London respectively.
  20. I think most means are like that by FI. Huge scatter means any big low or high pressures on individual runs are lost to background signal.
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