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Snowy L

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Snowy L last won the day on April 15 2015

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    Liverpool, NOTTINGHAM

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  1. High pressure oriented even better than the GFS. One negative though is that Svalbard low is not yet fully committed to going South, nowhere near as bad as the UKMO situation though. Edit: turns out it is as bad as the UKMO regarding that low pressure. We need the Svalbard low to join the Scandi low better otherwise HP will break through between the gap.
  2. Not getting my hopes up until BOM is on board.
  3. Let's not forget the other classics like Arpege and BOM.
  4. UKMO t144 definitely the chart of the day. Uninterupted HP all the way to the N. Pole.
  5. The way we get there though, a lot needs to go right. If the 18z is to be believed, the high pressure over the UK needs to hang on until low pressure reaches Spain, then magically disintergrate as soon as that happens. While this is happening a shortwave needs to develop to our North then rapidly intensify as it travels south down the North Sea. So yea just a word of caution that this is a very unlikely scenario.
  6. And to top it all off another high building in the west Atlantic at 216 A high pressure jet stream needs to become a thing.
  7. I think the new trend the GFS is picking up is for High pressure over the UK refusing to go south so quickly, meaning lows queing up in the Atlantic are forced to go south when they come up against the wall. This has happened on the 12z and now the 18z. Need this to start happening on the UKMO and ECM.
  8. ECM and GFS now more divided than ever with time running out.
  9. Definitely a better attempt by the Atlantic lows to push into that Euro High but still not getting there and inevitably being forced towards the UK. That Euro High has killed the last 4 winters and it is killing this one.
  10. Funny how as soon as the low pressure finds the best position to screw us over the shortwaves seem to disappear...
  11. If that second Atlantic low comes in at a better angle then the fun begins. Big problem is high pressure reluctant to move away from Spain/France so the angle the low hits us at is always a bad one at the moment.
  12. Yep much better WAA into Bafin Bay as a result of that low pressure being further south, allowing the high to tap into warmer air. Im hoping this also acts as a barrier to the Greenland High to prevent it from linking to Canada.
  13. That low in the Atlantic is slightly further south at t126 compared to the 12z, but still not enough to make it I think. The low behind it is much further south though.
  14. Looks like the Atlantic shortwave morphed into it too.
  15. ECM brings us back on track. Not perfect but wouldn't take too much to get there. Now or never if the GFS is going to flip, the key detail is only a few days away.
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