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Snowy L

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Snowy L last won the day on April 15 2015

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  1. To be fair if the trop matches the stratosphere that is exactly what we should be seeing in a couple of weeks. Split vortex, biggest lobe being in Russia, residual one being in Canada.
  2. GFS OP has now given up on the SSW. Deep cold recovering quickly after a minor warming. What do the GEFS say?
  3. Still concerning that the OP is not going for a reversal while every single GEFS member convincingly does with the average wind speed being -15. One of them is going to have their reputations permanently ruined in a couple of weeks.
  4. 2013 was the last time we had a split around this time of year, happened on the 6th of Jan. The 2nd half of January saw a weak block to our NorthEast but it gave tonnes of snow to some places. The main cold spell happened in March though.
  5. Looks like an immediate trop response to the vortex being pushed to Siberia to me. Hopefully the ensembles follow but encouraging to see the oP go for this twice in a row.
  6. Strange. I can understand going for wet and mild in the next 3 weeks as the vortex is pushed towards our side of the globe, but some of those 300h+ charts show a noticeable lack of vortex over Canada and Greenland.
  7. Snowy L

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Cant be certain without actually measuring the gradient, but the current decline does look more gradual than previous cycles, even a bit more gradual than 23. Looking at the graph, Cycle 24 sees a 98 sunspot decline in 49 months, so 2 sunspots per month Cycle 23 has a decline of 171 sunspots in 68 months which is 2.5 sunspots per month. Cycles 22 and 21 look far steeper than both.
  8. So for the last week ECM has been too far east now everything is too far west.
  9. Looks to me like the closest set of runs are actually below the mean in FI too. Does look as though D7-10 the high will be stuck a bit but hopefully another shot will see it to Greenland after that.
  10. Northern blocking is literally 3 days away.
  11. I dont think the UKMO would be that great beyond t144. As mentioned already GFS has those lows splitting in the Atlantic which allows another Atlantic high to build, and this acts as a guide for the Scandi High to migrate to Greenland. D6-8 is the one to watch, need to see those lows split.
  12. Great to see that huge low pressure anomaly over central Europe.
  13. Thats common anyway and happens even more when at solar maximum and declining from solar maximum, as seen in 4 of the last 5 winters. We are pretty much at solar minimum now, solar flux has been at background or close to background levels so hopefully we should be seeing more winters where the Atlantic isnt completely dominant in early winter. We saw a bit of that last winter. As for the cold in November argument, we are at least 2 weeks away from seeing a potential cold block. That brings us into the end of November and by then if you get a cold block in place it will defiitely be cold enough for low level snow. I have no problem with us getting these synoptics now. Im just happy the cold block didnt happen in October/early November as that definitely would have been a waste.
  14. Those ground temps are actually lower than our average temperature of October so far (CET is 12.4c so far), so not worried at all about ground temps. Land is awful at retaining heat so it really would only take a couple cold days to make them fine.
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