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Mike Poole

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Everything posted by Mike Poole

  1. ICON 18z cutting across all shortcuts and it is going for Azores ridge into UK shortly after T120: JMA T192: Is the likely scenario for summer to come to the UK quicker than recent forecasts are showing? I can see us being in a re-load Azores high situation by the end of next week....
  2. Apologies that I misinterpreted your post, Malcolm. I can't speak for others, but I have a strong professional interest in uncertainty, in an area not related to weather, and so in this hobby I am very much interested in the period beyond the accepted reliable. We are not all on here for the same thing, and that diversity should be a good thing. Mind you, I should point out things can only die once, you have posted about the death of irony many times
  3. ECM 12z mean, at T192 (when I think things start to change) and T240: Obviously a range possibilities in that mean, but pressure rising in the south at least, a suggestion of improving summer weather, when coupled with other output and background signals.
  4. This average of days 5-10 of the ECM looks misleading to me, as an indicator of future direction, given that the period, according to the model, includes a pattern change. And also, I acknowledge, that some posters like me are musing on evolutions on the 10 day timescale, rather than 5 days when the broad pattern looks pretty clear.
  5. Following on from previous post, ECM T240, here on NH and Europe view: The warm up is evident, but with the potential for a reloading system of high pressures from the Azores. Start of summer? On time too.
  6. We've seen a lot of runs some showing an improvement towards summer heat, and some not. ECM 12z at T192: it looks like the wave pattern is primed to push a ridge towards the UK. This seems to fit with background signals, so a promising run...
  7. CFS update for June, as always no point in looking at one run, here's the last 8 runs average Z500 anomaly for the month: The theme is high pressure dominated but uncertainty over where that might be centered. Which supports the view I have had for at least two months now, and posted on here, that this will be a hot summer, but with more thundery breakdowns than last year, and quite significantly so. We will see...
  8. Maybe, Karl, but it is the lack of any meaningful signal whatsoever over the whole polar region that struck me! I'm not saying this is a bad thing, I actually think the models may be hinting at a change to a summery outlook, consistent with background signals....but we have a period of uncertainty to get through.
  9. I mentioned uncertainty earlier, here's the ECM mean NH plot at T240: What an utterly vacuous chart! All remains to be firmed up in future runs.
  10. Probably worth posting the JMA out to T192: I think this is looking more promising for a settled warm spell developing from T192 onwards. Also worth noting on this, where is the unsettled weather in the middle of this run coming from, not the Atlantic is it? Another reason as we get into summer proper to have increasing confidence of some heat.
  11. ECM 12z in full: Something about this looks a bit unconvincing but I can't put my finger on what, any road, after a very unsettled period midweek, an improvement at the end of the run. But, I think uncertainty is the watch word from the models today...
  12. Leaving the bank holiday period aside for a moment, there are many promising GEFS members looking very good for a start to summer on the 12z suite at T240. Some examples: As we head to June a settled start to summer looks to me to be the more likely option, although there is obviously some uncertainty still at the moment, a signal to watch.
  13. I think this could be just because it's gone over month end. I'm sure I recall someone saying on here in winter that the anomalies (colours) are against monthly average values, so the latter two charts against June, the first against May.
  14. Just interested in the uncertainty that is prevalent at the moment, here is the situation at T180 on ICON, GEM, GFS and FV3: I don't think this evolution is nailed down at all, yes higher pressure towards the south, but other than that the models aren't telling us much.
  15. Here's the ECM, GEM, GFS and FV3 at T240: Forget the UK for a mo, ECM alone maintaining heights over Greenland, I hope this is a signal that is on the way out, but not quite extinguished yet it seems.
  16. Think that's DFS mate? Known for always having a sale. Bit like the CFS come to think of it!
  17. Scream...... GFS T276. Seriously though, I think this model run lost the plot many frames ago. It is interesting watching the models at the moment, because while towards a warm settled spell looks the destination, it's not clear whether we get there by road, rail, sea or sheer bloody-minded posting in here!
  18. I have to say I find this chart from the GFS at T210 bizarre, in that not likely to happen, Is that low really likely to sit there for that long? If the Atlantic really is that weak then when the ridge does finally make it here, it might be here for some time?
  19. To complete the round up as at T144 here is GEM: and GFS, and jet stream: We seem to have gone from uncertainty about everything to a cross model consensus since I was posting last night. Roll on summer...
  20. And support from the UKMO at T144, the bank holiday weekend now looking anything but a washout for many, quite the opposite, here: 0z T144 for comparison but note 12 hrs earlier: Spot the difference over Southern Greenland as well?
  21. ICON 12z with a big shift towards a ridge that encompasses the UK at T144: Compare with 0z at same time: Will be interesting to see if this is replicated on the UKMO and the other models later. ICON T180 end of the run: Summer watch begins....
  22. Well the last indication we will get today is from the ECM 12z mean, does this give an inkling of higher pressure into summer? T240, given it is an average chart, looks promising: Summer starts a few days after that? Edit, JMA has it all kicking off even sooner, T192:
  23. ECM 12z still got a while to go, T240: But should get there in the end....I still think this will settle down into a largely high pressure dominated summer, we will see.
  24. GEFS mean at T288 looking like an increasing number of runs that are pushing a ridge from the Azores towards us. This is so much the direction of travel - let's travel there!
  25. GFS 12z at T240: A push of the jet stream to the north, as the ridge from the Azores edges in?
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