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Mike Poole

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Everything posted by Mike Poole

  1. ECM mean still looks absolutely fine to me, here a bit like a big tadpole in a pool away from its natural home: But vortex away from home, and the crucial Southern Europe trough still very much in the picture. All good.
  2. You can just paste the URL of the window the GIF appears in on Meteociel and it will embed in your post. You don’t have to save the GIF to your device.
  3. I think it will NWS, and partly because of the cold on offer, or lack of it, such sliding systems may require less cold uppers than other snow scenarios, the one on Friday may or may not illustrate this, but we’ve been here before in early December, think it was 10/12/17 (I only just qualified, the M4 shield in force that day for sure).
  4. Sure, quite probably, but like the HIRLAM it replaced, I only use these models when a weather event is imminent and i want a good high res handle on precipitation, can’t remember having to go look for that for months!! Any way from what I’ve just read about HARMONIE, it should be a really decent short term high res model that handles convection well (regardless if it snows in Oxfordshire on Friday!).
  5. I think tonight’s ECM shows the importance of the Southern Europe trough: At T192 it looks like a low pressure destined under normal circumstances for the UK, but even this big feature slides T216, and then goes under the relatively modest high over Scandi (not the big Russian one), T240:
  6. ECM T144, and GFS for comparison: For sure, but the bacon has yet to be brought home, i might remind you!! ECM T144, and GFS for comparison: It seems to me that with the vortex over t’other side, we are at the mercy of shortwaves and wedges all over the place. Should throw up some surprises I would guess.
  7. I guess there is concern that the strat vortex is bound to imprint on the trop vortex at some point and the result will be weeks of mild wet and windy weather for the UK. But what if the opposite happened? Plot shows the Northern Annular Mode timeseries at all levels of the atmosphere, the end of the forecast period is intriguing (from GFS 0z run).
  8. It is a new development from HIRLAM apparently, this explains: http://en.wikipedia.org//static/favicon/wikipedia.ico HIRLAM - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG
  9. Had to double check that on Meteociel, Zak, as it was a new one on me, apparently it replaces the Dutch HIRLAM (which I wondered yesterday why I couldn’t view it). I hope this model is as good as the HIRLAM, which was one of the best for short range precipitation forecasts and decent also with convection during the 2018 BFTE. We will see...
  10. I would disagree with that, Covid seems to like cool and humidity, and is most comfortable at 4C. Cold would be preferable, the normal mild mush cold rain fest is the absolute last thing we need this year.
  11. Thanks for the forecast @Thundery wintry showers, and I agree with the analysis for December, and I also expect the midwinter period to be mild wet and windy. But this forecast doesn’t even entertain the possibility of a SSW delivering a cold February, which I think is significant possibility this year. As with all these things, we’ll know all by March 1st!
  12. For the first time today i get a sense from some of the ensemble members of the brakes being put on the strat vortex, here’s the GEFS and GEM ensembles from Stratobserve: Up until now I haven’t really spotted anything below 40 m/s, but GEFS have some in the 20s and GEM (CMC) have a couple in single figures. One to watch.
  13. ECM finishing its innings on a fairly solid note, T240: No route for Atlantic, and increasingly colder air over UK, and low pressure, snow chances increasing. All good.
  14. ECM T144 shows still low pressure affecting particularly the south of the UK, and the uppers are marginal but possible for snow: Meanwhile, watch Greenland for the rest of this run.
  15. No precipitation charts from any model are reliable at that range. Short range high res models up to 2 days maybe a bit better, looking out of the window is better still.
  16. Longer term than the end of the week snow event, the GEM is having a right good go at it on the 12z run, here T192, T240: Great to see those heights to the north, wonder what ECM will show tonight?
  17. Yes, this is very interesting and to some extent expected given the persistent Aleutian low, Russian high in the trop output. But two major winter forecasts came out today, the MO contingency planners one, which is awful both because it predicts a mild wet winter and because they’ve changed the format so dumbed down it’s now the ladybird book of a 3 monthly forecast, see my post in the MO thread. The other major forecast is of course the netweather one, and while I agree with the idea of a colder December, I was struck by the absence of any real discussion of effects of a SSW for later in th
  18. Yes, CFS has had that monster Scandi high anomaly for a while now, seems omnipresent on every run.
  19. GFS, ECM and GEM at T240: GFS the least amplified upstream, both ECM and GEM look more amplified but quite different in detail. Prefer ECM solution from the positioning of the Euro trough. Aleutian low, Russian high combo maintained so hopefully pressure put on the strat vortex, but it is spinning fast so will take something to break it down.
  20. Yes, that does seem less likely from what I’ve read too.
  21. Speaking of things UKMO, has anyone read the latest contingency planners 3-monthly? AKA winter forecast. Contingency planners WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Our weather products help contingency planners prepare for and respond to emergencies. I strongly advise not to bother for two reasons, the first is probably obvious, the second is the new format which is dumbed down to the point no self-respecting contingency planner would even look at it!
  22. FI! And be careful what you wish for, it is part of our insurance policy if the current plan goes ***s up, as can help to promote a SSW.
  23. Oh for sure, @Griff but that isn’t really the point at the moment, the cold will grow, the point is that a meridional jet is established that will bring these synoptics hopefully for a while, and the cold will only grow as we sink deeper into winter.
  24. GFS pub run T246: Well this is looking very promising now isn’t it?
  25. Yep, and look at the jet stream too: At this time of year, we will just have to grow our own cold air and hope the favourable pattern persists. Question for those who’ve been on here longer than me...was the Greenland block of 2010 predicted well by the models or come out of nowhere?
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