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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on September 15

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  1. Not sure what you are seeing there, today’s ECM T240 seems to have Aleutian low?
  2. Not really Don, I think the summer was sufficiently average, and September isn’t going to do much to change that, that if, I repeat, if, things continue the way they are at the moment, that signs for early winter for the UK are good, there will be time for things to cool down. Whether that delivers for us down here in the south is another matter entirely, we actually tend to do much better from back loaded winters.
  3. ECM 12z T240 and showing signs of a pattern that would really restrict the development of the polar vortex, Siberian high, Aleutian low. If this persists, I’m doubling down on the front loaded winter!
  4. SST anomaly this time in 2010: And now: Some similarities there.
  5. I know we get stuck in a trough on this run, that’s local stuff and may and probably will change, but the ECM T240 - does not look good for the fledgling vortex at all: If this pattern persists the vortex will struggle to form. The // looks even worse for the vortex if honest:
  6. Yes, I never bought into that idea of a resurgent atlantic which suddenly appeared on the models and ensembles a couple of days ago. Plenty of blocking on the early 12z runs.
  7. ECM mean T240. Just look at it. Could you be looking at a better pattern for a front loaded winter? Early days, baby steps, of course…
  8. Hello all! There’s been talk of the Atlantic returning after months of absence. I don’t see it. I just can’t see a zonal attack on the UK that is any way prolonged. It is a mystery as to why zonal fayre has disappeared, last winter’s SSW might well have had something to do with it. It didn’t deliver quite the patterns that most coldies wanted, but it did something, the question is what? Going into this winter, the QBO is easterly (that doesn’t happen as often as it used to), we are coming out of a solar minimum. So what can go wrong this year? Indian Ocean dipole. No. ENSO, not sure, but probably not. SSTs maybe: The hot seas in the eastern pacific (highlighted) may be bad news, but in the Atlantic we would expect to see a re-emergence of the tripole from summer, so I’m giving this a tick!! Finally a look upwards: Not much to talk about on today’s plot, but in a couple of week’s time the vortex looks like setting up shop - in a good place - for now. I’m sure there will be much more to talk about as the cold season comes closer. All the best, Mike
  9. I think the issue in question is not the low in the Atlantic, but the behaviour of this low (ex-tropical storm) (highlighted): T120, GFS wraps this up in the stuff that affects us, and pushes high pressure over us, ECM keeps it alone, adrift:
  10. Well, a conundrum on our hands with the 12z runs, here GFS and UKMO T144: It is all about the low that either encroaches or gives us the wide berth. People shouldn’t be surprised by the GFS run, it has been on the ensembles/clusters for a while. It is important for now, but also important for signals into winter, more to say on that later.
  11. GFS pub run T150: Again, GFS going for the glancing blow with the LP. Getting to the time of year that you need to look on NH view too… Anyway T240 on pub run, all’s good in the hood!
  12. Actually it isn’t that simple! I think if we get standard autumn fayre from now on in, there isn’t a cat in hells chance we will get winter in December. Which is why I’m holding out for the blocks that have been there since last December….
  13. ECM clusters T192 - T240: 6 clusters. Yesterday the ensembles strongly favoured the blocking (red border) solution. This morning on the 0z they all favoured the Atlantic. Now it is a mix. But with 26 members going for blocked, this is no done deal that the Atlantic is going to come blazing through.
  14. ECM horror show T240: JMA goes the same way but not so deep, so there’s a high building at T264: I really think the ECM op is off on one. But life is weird sometimes, isn’t it?
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