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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on June 17 2014

Mike Poole had the most liked content!

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    Wantage, Oxon
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    Hot, cold!

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  1. At this stage I am optimistic that we may get a more interesting winter this year than the last four. I reason this as follows. Although the long range models should be taken largely with a pinch of salt this far out, there is some good news in that whereas they were pretty much screaming +NAO full stop a couple of months ago, CFS is now starting to move towards some high-latitude blocking. Will be interested to see if GloSea5 does so too when the October runs are out. I also think that with the easterly QBO and reducing solar activity, it is unlikely we’ll go the full three months without some blocked periods. Once concern I have is with the warm temperature anomaly that exists pretty much across the globe at the moment, will half decent synoptic patterns which would normally deliver snow, lead only to marginal 850 temperatures? A concern for the south of England anyway.
  2. Well, this looks extraordinary for the UK. We appear to be off the scale into 'black hole' territory on the GFS 06z CAPE chart. Pretty close to my location too. Suspect nothing will happen but you never know.
  3. Something about the chart below bothers me. It is the tercile probability plots from GloSea5 for the summer months for 500 hPa heights: I accept that these probabilities are derived from a large number of model runs and averaged over a 3 month period, but without being able to see the individual evolutions, I find the plot is hard to interpret. It seems to depict a rather extreme position, with higher probability of higher than average heights over pretty much the entire globe. Does anyone know what might be causing this – is the averaging process masking everything but significant seasonal drivers? – is this rather extreme-looking position a hangover from last year’s El Nino, for example? Finally, a few posters have expressed concern that we may be headed for a 2007/12 type summer – the plots aren’t available for 2007, but for 2012 the corresponding plot from GloSea4 (as I think it was in those days) is as follows: It couldn’t look more different to this year’s. GloSea5 clearly sees this summer very differently to how it saw 2012 at the same time 5 years ago, so I see a repeat of 2012 as rather unlikely.
  4. Summer 2017 Discussion

    Things continuing to fall in place for a decent summer - here are the May GloSea5 predictions for the summer months from the Met Office (2m Temp and 500 hPa height):
  5. Summer 2017 Discussion

    For the first time in perhaps a decade, I’m looking forward to the summer weather with a sense of optimism. It has seemed that since 2007, for some reason, the dice have been rather loaded against prolonged hot spells in summer in the UK – that’s not to say there haven’t been any (July 2013 springs to mind) – it’s just that they have been less frequent than previously. This year, the Met Office contingency planners forecasts have been suggesting warmer than average, the long range models that I have looked at also suggesting high pressure more likely. In fact, high pressure close to the UK seems to have been a factor in the weather for much of many months now, and while Sod’s law would suggest this will change in the run up to summer but there’s nothing scientific about Sods law! So my money’s on a hotter than average one, and if that transpires I think I’m about 60% hot, humid and thundery, 40% hot and dry. Time will, as ever, tell.
  6. Need Help On The Site/forum?

    Thanks, that question being my 16th post seems to have solved the problem then, as if by magic I now seem to have permission.
  7. Need Help On The Site/forum?

    Hi folks, I don't seem to be able to post in the 'serious discussion' section, although I can most everywhere else, is there any reason for this? I'm only an occasional poster but wanted to reply to something posted about the election and found I couldn't. Thanks Mike
  8. Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    Unfortunately the Met Office only quote the probabilities for the categories for the Dec-Feb period in their Contingency Planners update, which are fairly average masking a forecast cold start and mild end to winter. So I overlayed a grid of squares to calculate the probabilities for the December only probability distribution graph on Figure 2T on the link Matt quotes (presumably this information comes from GloSea5 runs primarily), and got the following: Warmest category - 7% Second-warmest category - 11% Middle category - 16% Second-coldest category - 22% Coldest category - 44% As someone who uses probabilistic modeling in another (non-weather context), this looks to me a very strong signal compared to climatology (each category 20%) for December.
  9. Yes, Here it is (for France - they didn't do UK charts in those days). http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives-gfs/28/6/2012/0/cape-et-lifted-index/3h.htm
  10. Summer 2015

    My take on Summer '15 from Oxfordshire. Plus point - it was largely dry - I organise a big rounders competition over the summer months and we've had little in the way of problems with the rain. But other than that - where was the heat???? Few hot days around 1 July and another on 22 August - apart from that it might have been late spring or early autumn. Still, I was staying in Bournemouth the night of THAT storm!!! Oh well, roll on winter...
  11. I'm waiting for: Atlantic Storm Nathan - ramped as Storm of the Century by the Daily Express, making landfall as a slight breeze and a bit of drizzle.
  12. A word on the model verification statistics, here's the 5 day graph: There's clarification on what the PR... models are: PRX: Experimental T1534 Semi-Lagrangian GFS run by NCEP NCO PRHW14: Experimental T1534 Semi-Lagrangian GFS run by NCEP EMC New GFS run in two different places maybe? I'm rather dissappointed if so, I've had my eye on the PRHW14 most of the year and it's a bit better than GFS, close on UKMO but still short of ECM - if this is now the highest resolution model, it is a bit underwhelming.
  13. S.Murr Winter Forecast 2014/15

    Steve, thanks for the forecast, and all the analysis in the previous thread. It's well reasoned and I hope that in 5 years time long range forecasts of this nature are the norm. Good luck, love to see some snow in January!
  14. This is an utterly compelling thread! The OPI evolution is simultaneously both fascinating and maddening! I've been giving some thought to the wild swings we've seen - on Friday and again today. Some thoughts: I'm taking as read that the OPI is as stated in Riccardo's post i.e. that today's value is average of 12 days actual data + 10 days GFS forecast data. The swing today from the 06Z to the 12Z was from -0.64 to -3.15. Given the GFS can forecast pretty well up to 4 days out, the change must largely come from 6 days out of 22. What could explain this? I think the answer must be that this is a highly non-linear index - the translation by Interitus a few posts above seems to suggest this regarding the angular position of this axis parameter. So I conclude that a few days contribute massively to the negative values we see and most others much less so. Given at day 12/22 we are still seeing massive swings suggests that the values south of -3 have probably arisen mostly from the forecast part rather than the 'banked part' of the index, and the forecast ones from earlier in the month didn't verify. On that basis I'd guess we'd finish up about -1.5. Which is nice.
  15. I presume its based on GFS because the data is freely available. Whether to use an ensemble mean is more interesting - its the mean of a large number of entirely physical realisations, but the mean itself is not physically reasonable - it could not have occurred in nature - so I don't think it would be useful for this OPI index which looks to be highly dependent on detail.