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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on November 17

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    Wantage, Oxon
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  1. I think it might have been in the tweets thread, not sure, but the gist was that ECM had pivoted! It suggested also that ECM Nov runs were all on on one day, GloSea5 over the course of the previous month. So might be more up to date too. If anyone knows for sure, please can you clarify?
  2. GFS 18z collapses down to an average run in the trop, here T192: Later on the strat looks interesting at T312: Edit: 0C on the chart at just T336, this is happening, whether that's a good thing or not for UK is a conversation still to be had...
  3. This does just generate the image of the stuff of nightmares! To think GloSea5 has been right all along, and to boot, we get our SSW, in mid December, and despite all people like us have written about it on here, it does absolutely nothing to unseat the (by then) raging +NAO pattern. If that happened I really would need to cower under a giant toadstool.... Fortunately, it was just a dream.
  4. Interesting. I'm putting more faith in the GEFS than the op this year (re the strat), as we have seen some divergences already, the GEFS is as it always was, but the op is now the FV3 and I read at the time of its introduction that there were some question marks over the models performance in the strat.
  5. Well it would qualify if zonal winds reverse at 10 hPa and 60N, which I haven't seen charts for, but I would expect probably not. What is important from my experience having 'watched' a number of SSW events unfold on the models is a sense of momentum building, and we are seeing this now, a few days ago the first GEM ensembles went for it, now the GEFS (a much more reliable set) are too. The trend is your friend! If you are looking for a SSW that is, even if one happens the jury hasn't even sat for the impacts on UK after!
  6. What is a strong weak flow anomaly, please BA?
  7. Yes, agreed, good point, I'd missed that, it does look like that is what we are seeing in the models now.
  8. In short I don't think so, but the situation is now looking more complicated than as has been commented on in the last couple of weeks or so, and that is entirely down to the progged SSW, now a real probability and in sight, the run up to it, and what happens afterwards. Today's charts from stratobserve are interesting, note the caveat these are based on the GFS 0z and the 0z ensemble suites. Zonal winds first: Now a few members showing a reversal by the end, so worth a look at the ellipses for the GEFS at T384: Attention is drawn to P2 and P7 that show a reversal, and it is by way of a displacement. For the op run T384, the strat vortex seems to be quite twisted here, yellow at the top, and orange at the bottom (150 hPa): Finally, the NAM plot: This doesn't show the strat and trop vortexes connecting to me, more becoming disconnected in the opposite way! Blues up top, and reds down below, but to follow would be a downwelling if this SSW did happen, so then they would couple but likely in a good way! Be an interesting watch this one...
  9. Liking the ECM so far at T168: Heights into Greenland and the vortex kept to the Siberian side, let's see where this one goes...
  10. Many thanks @Recretos for that great post, which categorically answers my question from yesterday re the warming vs the zonal winds.
  11. To be honest, blue, I'd choose @johnholmes dice or anyone's over the ECM 46 dayer after last winter... Progress is a windy path.
  12. Just posting it because it looks cool, pub run T300: Welcome to winter!
  13. You couldn't have summed up the situation better, Steve. Pub run may have gone a bit off piste at T234, ...but imagine if it was a direct hit??
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