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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on December 1 2018

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    Wantage, Oxon
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    Hot, cold!

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  1. Good post, I had promised a review of what went wrong in the model thread, but there's no need to as you have covered all the main aspects. If I could just make a couple of addional points: I think sea surface temperatures may have been a bigger factor, they we're rarely discussed but acknowledged to be less than favourable at the start of winter, here 1 Dec: Helped intensify the jet maybe? Given the amplification or otherwise of the jet stream is just wave physics, it is possible that two conflicting signals caused destructive interference, maybe the MJO and SSW. I remain slightly unconvinced by this theory as it's 2 dimensional, whereas the SSW has a third dimension to it. We were just unlucky? Who knows!
  2. Yes valid point Matt, I actually think it's got less chance of getting summer totally wrong because there's less going on in the NH, *cough* 2009. I think there are reasons to be confident of a decent summer, though, and if the long range models are supporting that,then all to the good. We will see, as I said too early to make any kind of forecast.
  3. I didn't think I'd be commenting on a potential heatwave in February, but we find ourselves in changed times, gone the front-loaded winter, which I championed, and gone the back-loaded winter, yes I backed that as well! D'oh! ECM T144: Reds! Thought they were for summer! Some say early warmth suggests a cold wet summer. I don't see anything like that at all, I'm doubling down on a repeat of last summer, early to make any kind of detailed forecast, but GloSea5 certainly going for it, Feb update for early summer Z500: I think it's going to be a hot one folks!
  4. Today's ECM 12z belongs in some kind of fantasy world, here T240, +12 uppers into SW? I'm sure that will feel very pleasant, it just isn't the time of year for it is all!
  5. FV3 T300 This is what I think. A lovely spell of unseasonal warmth, will be replaced by a cold blast turn of the month, how potent is very much up for grabs, just because the coldies lost last time, doesn't mean they will lose next time!
  6. GEM12z like yesterday, showing transition to Greenland blocking, here T240:
  7. To step away from the hunt for cold for a moment, the GEM 12z is just ridiculous for February warmth at T192: But if that happens, given time of year,WAA could result in some colder outlooks into March. Still fascinating weather prospects including snow possibilities into March.
  8. Yes, I noticed that too, and it is supported by the GEM too, maybe more so: ECM NH view for comparison In the meantime a taste of spring. Not requesting the towel back just yet though. Watching, however.
  9. Here's my towel: No point chasing this any longer the outlook looks very poor for cold from today's model output across the suites, and I can't see it backtracking. I will post some thoughts on the winter thread about what went wrong in a few days time, for now only to say the best we got to show for all the signals was a cold period probably due to the SSW latter half Jan, which was by no means spectacular synoptics but did at least deliver a significant snow event for parts of the country. And I'm quite well aware that many parts of the country have seen practically nothing. Some really great posts, humour and analysis on here over the winter, thanks to everyone for those! I'll be back with some thoughts about summer when I have had a chance to formulate them.
  10. It has been a trying 2.5 months to be honest. To start off with a weak tropospheric vortex, promising seasonal and sub seasonal model predictions, then get clear signs of a SSW, then a really strong long lasting reversal of winds in the strat, 2 (third upcoming) forays into favourable MJO territory, and then get the square root of diddly squat sticks in the craw! Compare winter 13-14, never any chance of anything. This year the carrot has been dangled but always out of reach. Ho hum, every winter different and all the time we learn... Except. The SSW did result it a colder spell in late Jan, and was a factor in delivering a spectacular snow event and really cold temperatures ~ 1 Feb - only for certain areas of the country though. But the promise was for so much more. One last roll of the dice, folks!
  11. Some thoughts as we approach the last sixth of winter. Yes, you read that right! There is still a sizeable portion of winter remaining, which you might not believe reading some posts in here! A while since we looked at the stratosphere, zonal wind plot from GFS Vortex strength massively increasing at 10 hPa now, won't affect stuff down here an iota in near future, but, ECM day 10 zonal winds down here in the trop weak westerly on average, a hangover from the SSW? Like 2013?, leaves room for easterly flow in places in the NH, it's a question of where? This is where the MJO comes in, will the amplified pattern be in the right place for a decent block to our north? FV3 12z shows the possible. ECM mean and spread at T240: Just need the ridge further west, spread suggests that is possible for some members. So all in all, I reckon the last chance saloon end of the month cold blast stands at a probability of 30 %. Embrace or shake a stick at - up to you! PS, on the Berlin zonal wind chart, at the equator you can see the next East QBO descending nicely from the top, will we welcome it in November?
  12. FV3 T276 and it's looking like GAME ON on this run: T312: Well into FI, of course, but the important timescale was earlier, so this isn't an outlandish evolution.
  13. ECM and FV3 at T192: of the two, the FV3 is sharper and more amplified, with greater warm air advection directed polewards so interested to see how this run goes. ECM not a disaster, this is day 8, so there's every chance this block could get better placed as it comes into the reliable in future runs, I would be very interested to see what the T144 charts show this time Thursday.
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