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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on July 4

Mike Poole had the most liked content!

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    Wantage, Oxon
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    Hot, cold!

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  1. 970 low in summer, quite unusual. But still far enough away it might be modified. Thanks for all the great informative posts during the hot spell, normally I would have been joining in, but I have had some things to deal with and little time to post. And it kind of gets difficult to start again, because if I’m posting regularly, I kind of know what the GFS bias is, what the GEM thinks, which model I currently favour, etc. from the previous runs. It is less easy to pick it up again from scratch. So a couple of things to consider, first that +AAM signal seems to be rapidly going down the loo, as per CFS: But also, the SSTs all around the UK are now well above normal, with the absence of settled conditions things could get very wet. I’m not convinced the unsettled spell will last too long, but as often the case, it is with the start of September that settled conditions often take hold, and I see no reason why not this year. All the best, Mike.
  2. Just seen a flash, looking at the radar, something coming our way...
  3. Yes, one bolt practically right over my head, lightning a fraction of second earlier. Holy schmoley, was it loud. Electrics went off shortly after for about 15 minutes. Constant rumbles for quite a while but I think the main cell has now moved north, and there is nothing big on the radar behind. Interesting the MO Amber warning covering us was issued 17.40 - that’s not apple bracing time!! Although, there could be something later in the night too.
  4. The difference in uppers between the GFS and the parallel at just T42 on the 6z runs is quite ridiculous:
  5. Pub run time, but I’m posting the 18z ICON, here T78: And T120: Think I have got this post right now!!!!!
  6. ECM T144 I’d imagine the heat plume would waft back west a bit in next two frames. We will see....
  7. T96: I think this is the point it gets interesting, yes Friday, but the real interest is early next week. If this slides to a SE rather than E wind like UKMO, it could get very hot.....
  8. Aye, and ECM T72 is eye candy for the hot squad,
  9. I always thought the old Gravesend station suffered from that in summer. But everywhere is a real place, and a bit different, it would be silly to situate weather stations in places divorced from reality?
  10. Given where the heat is, that looks almost perfect positioning of the high to get the heat over us, and for a prolonged period unlike last weeks 1 day plume: UKMO T144:
  11. The hot uppers never really go away for the SE on the ICON 12z run:
  12. JMA 12z should not be discounted, T264: Lots of possibilities in the mix longer term, we will no doubt be watching them........
  13. Agreed, but who posted them? I didn’t see any!
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