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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on June 17 2014

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    Wantage, Oxon
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    Hot, cold!

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  1. The pub run at T150 unleashes a herd of undead frozen, wildebeests of cold galloping directly at the UK across a frozen sea, what next, a full blown zombie apocalypse? One such beast pictured here
  2. The pub run - well it's the new going out, isn't it? What do we want from this one, it has got a hard act to follow after the last few nights, but I'd settle for broadly following the ECM 12z, and then maybe some outrageous snow charts in the latter frames, just for fun. given ECM ens I expect a good one! ICON rolling, similar to the last run so far:
  3. Having drawn breath, time to rerun the key part of the ECM 12z, starting at T144, though to T216. I'm astonished at the 'speed' that the high scoots across from Scandinavia to Gfeenland, and even beyond, dragging oodles of instability in it's wake, of course with freezing cold air over the UK in place. Charts: I'd like to see some intermediate charts between these!
  4. The epiglottis opens at T168 on ECM. And spewed towards the UK is a torrent of frigid air: -16 uppers incoming perhaps? This is the middle ground at the moment.
  5. Some odd posts today, but each to his/her own! Just before the 12's roll, let's have a look at the easterly in all it's glory, from the GFS 6z and ensembles (using Tableaux GEFS on Meteociel): If that represents a failed easterly, my backside's a fire engine. (To slightly misquote cricket commentator David Lloyd).
  6. Spin my nipple nuts and send me to Alaska! - my reaction on the pub run so far tonight (not sure that would help me enjoy the cold spell though!) (original quote Kryten in Red Dwarf) T192 Surely this is going t end in mayhem!
  7. I think it's going there, Greenland, early ! T 150 The bottom chart is not to do with me but I can't delete it! Ali - I think we've crossed wavelengths!
  8. GFS possibly a little further north at T66, 18 and 12: Or maybe faIrly close on second look.
  9. Forgetting the nonsense in the recent posts about Liam Dutton - which now seem to have been removed - edit! (who I don't rate after his provably wrong comments about the GFS 6 and 18 runs), I think we will see a move to the ECM tonight with a quicker move to Greenland around T192 bringing in snow opportunities for significant parts of the country thereafter. That's my punt anyway!
  10. Just comparing ECM 12z and GFS 12z, there looks to be a significant difference at around T192 where the ECM has pulled the High through towards Greenland, GFS much slower: As others have alluded to, and we saw from the later charts, this means in the case of ECM lower pressure and disturbances thereafter leading to potentially significant snow. As ECM is the best performing model, I wonder if this slight potential change of direction might be repeated in future runs. Maybe something to look out for on the pub run!
  11. You are so right - from a psychology point of view I reckon the winter models chase hits the same highs and lows in the brain as gambling - particularly something like roulette where you can go on big wining and losing steaks with rapid changes of fortunes. I should know - I do both!
  12. Fair cop, too big fingers too small iPad! T192 great though, back to direct hit territory