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Mike Poole

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    Wantage, Oxon
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    Hot, cold!

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  1. Not sure, someone mentioned on here a couple of days ago that odds had been cut from 3/1 to 2/1, I can't remember who it was. May not be true this close anyway.
  2. Interesting to look at the uncertainty on afternoon temperatures on Monday on the 6z ARPEGE ensembles, here for T81, 4pm UK time for 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% of the probability distribution: If the bookies are still offering 2/1 on the bank holiday record going, it might be worth a punt!
  3. Just a quick look at the T850s for Monday T120, here for GEM, GFS, GFS legacy, UKMO and ICON: Spot the odd one out. UKMO seeming to introduce a nasty feature that messes everything up. Hope it is a rogue run and not on to something!
  4. Well once there was uncertainty about the bank holiday, that has totally gone, now with cross model consensus at T144. And an important part of that is agreement that the low to the south west will be cut off. Here GFS, UKMO, ECM, GEM, JMA and GFS legacy at T144: Most welcome end to summer!
  5. So to that question at T144, there's clearly a gap in the high pressures with the UK solidly in it, ECM ensemble mean would suggest that it is more likely to be a lesser feature:
  6. Models at T144: So, increasingly settled until the weekend and then what? Whether a trough, a col or not much impact is still uncertain, with GFS legacy the most settled, JMA and UKMO putting more of a thorn in the side of decent weather. Still a lot to resolve at 6 days time.
  7. Well it looks to me that the ECM ensembles support the op run, looking at the mean at T168 and T240: Shaping up for a nice September, let's hope so, always the most reliable month!
  8. Compare with ECM T192 which is quite different: Uncertainty, yes, but my feeling is the GFS solution is just too extreme given the expected evolution, ECM looks good with power to add. Edit, and add it did, T240:
  9. Hmmm...GFS T192, not what I wanted for the bank holiday! Just shows the uncertainty as we get to the weekend and beyond.
  10. I'm kind of expecting the 12s to firm up next weekend a bit, here's UKMO and the two GFS at T96: This looks great for the south with high pressure in control. Moving on to T144: Suggestions that it becomes a bit less settled at this point.
  11. Too soon to forget July after this abysmal start to August? It's not impossible summer could make an impressive return, GEM ensemble P5 best example of potential at T276: Winter thoughts start to stir now and here's a quick look at what CFS is saying for December - always need to look at a reasonable number of runs with CFS, here's the last 9 runs Z500 anomalies: Mixed bunch, plenty to keep us interested, but the main interest will be how these predictions evolve as we get closer....we will see!
  12. Hello everyone, I've not been following the models run to run for the last few weeks of utter dross, so as much as an exercise for me to get up to speed with the improving position, here's a snapshot of the models at T144: at this time, GFS, GeM and ECM look best placed to provide a warm and settled spell, but there's quite a lot of uncertainty even at this stage... Ffwd to T240, and ECM and GEM head towards a decent position with a ridge, while GFS develops it's own heat pump: So yeah! Summer returns but in what form in the longer timeframe may depend on how that cut off low behaves in the medium term....we will see!
  13. Not the output I'd want to be commenting on at this point in summer, but the weather will do what it will! Some probabilistic insight into the incoming low from the ARPEGE 6z ensembles, first cumulative rain up to T48, here's probability exceeding 20mm and 50mm: and re max wind gusts over a longer time to T90, here's probability exceeding 80 km/h and 90 km/h:
  14. ECM mean at T240 looks horrible to me, wake me up when something more positive presents itself in the model output,
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