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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on August 17

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    Wantage, Oxon
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    Hot, cold!

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  1. I agree to an extent. What is important at this stage for 'jam tomorrow' is that the models continue to show the beaten-up shredded trop PV, a la ECM T168. Whether that means a cold blast or warm southerlies for the UK at the moment is moot, as far as I'm concerned. (My location may mean the difference between cold rain and mild sunshine, I know which I prefer - the stakes may be higher further north, I know!) Total disconnect between the strat and trop vortexes at the moment, and modelled in the reliable. I've got a nervous eye on this as we move forward into November, as it is the thing that can make or scupper this front loaded winter idea...is it simplistic to boil it down to 3 possibilities? 1. Early strat warming aka Canadian warming, increasing likelihood of Dec cold. 2. Marmalised trop vortex holds off down welling from the strat - result possibly even increased likelihood of UK cold in Dec. 3. Strat vortex wins as of Dec 2016, game over. I would really struggle to put probabilities against these at the moment, but I'll have a go and others can offer opinions: 1. 20%, 2. 55%, 3. 25%.
  2. Well that PV looks well mangled! ECM at T168. And here at T192:
  3. What post northerly? well the GFS 18z has the strongest signal yet from the runs I've seen for a Scandi high, here at T204: Jet stream at same time: Small steps, need the strat to get on board at some point, though. No immediate hurry. Edit, by the way, anyone else think the T240 chart has an air of implausibility about it?
  4. I take it we can bank the northerly next weekend, GFS keen on the Scandi high thereafter, here T234: My interest now is how this affects the strat PV, given there is still some weeks to winter.
  5. Quite a difference between predicted top temperatures today and next Sunday on the GFS 6z: Are we witnessing the reverse of that sudden flip to warm that occurred in mid-April?
  6. UKMO 0z really going for this northerly at T144: One messed up trop vortex to boot: And the cold air flooding south: One of those many occasions with the UKMO that you want to see the next couple of charts!
  7. Thanks Steve, that does make sense, apologies if I was getting a little overexcited, there's a lot of interest in the model output at the moment, despite it still being mid-October! JMA 12z has the pressure rising into Greenland at T144: I know the values over Greenland are suspect but nice to see the 1075 contour make an appearance nonetheless. Meanwhile, in the strat, GFS suggesting the PV brakes coming on big time:
  8. Another shot at the 4 wave pattern from the FV3 tonight, here at T174: And a real cold blast at the UK next weekend too... fascinating to see where this all leads.
  9. FV3 6z impressive run so far, here at T180 - next weekend - has the cold air sweeping south across the UK: Again note the 4 waves on the NH plot. Interestingly, FV3 is currently top dog on day 8 NH stats, GFS second, not often ECM knocked into third at this timeframe!
  10. According to this the parallel supposed to be fully operational sometime in 2019: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/fv3/ i imagine as it's a completely different model, they will want a long test period, so I don't think we'll see the back of the current GFS for a while. So probably have both available all winter!
  11. Like some others on here I wasn't worried about the upturn in the speed of the stratospheric vortex. At the moment if the two vortexes are to become one, the strat one is going to have to give, here GFS forecast, zonal mean zonal wind at 10hpa, downozing, word I've just invented, heading in a downwards direction. The tropospheric vortex is in a right mess. BTW can we have a strat thread for this year, please?
  12. ECM mean, first T144, nod towards Greenland: T192, northerly incoming: Signal collapses later in an average of solutions, but really promising to day 8.
  13. D'oh, I've been really following that run, after the super 4 wave pattern, on Meteociel and you've just given away the ending!
  14. Or 4: FV3 at T180. This 4 wave pattern is quite rare, especially headed towards winter, like it!