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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on August 17

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    Wantage, Oxon
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    Hot, cold!

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  1. There's no point polishing it, the 12s tonight are disappointing regarding a return to summery conditions at the end of the season. ECM at T240: FV3, like GFS earlier shows high pressure in charge later, here T300: 10 days now since the heatwave ended, for those that want heat, at least 10 days away for me, although I do think it will eventually happen into September.
  2. Well the op runs tonight look rather disappointing for renewal of summer, GFS does get there around T360, and I still think this is the direction of travel. It's heavy traffic though! That said the GEFS ensembles tell a rather different story with a strong signal towards more settled weather at least for the south, here T240 and T336:
  3. One for the coldies this morning on the GFS parallel 0z:
  4. Hi folks, summer isn't ended, Far from it. GEFS 12z mean here T240: Seems an even stronger signal towards the end of the run!
  5. OK so what do we make of the best models at T240, here's the ECM It does look good for warm settled weather for the south, but the No. 2 performing model the GFS paralell / FV3 at same time - this is the one I'm backing.
  6. Strong GEFS mean from the 12z, higher probability of ridging into the UK, caveat that this is primarily the south, here T240:
  7. Well the early part of the GFS is awful, but goes against expectations from background signals and long range models, salvages something at T240: And then has the temerity to end like this, Only, this is my view of the eventual outcome! We'll see. GEM, good earlier frames, looks a bit flat at T240 for most of the country, fine for the south:
  8. Chalk and cheese so far for the GFS and GEM at T180 for comparison with the ICON above. GEM much the better. UKMO T144 maybe leaning a bit towards the GFS? UKMO not been much help with the slow moving patterns of this summer, only going out to T144.
  9. So to the 12s then and I wonder if this is when we see the uncertainty in the ~10 day timeframe resolved a bit. First out ICON at T132 and T180, ridge, and stronger ridge respectively:
  10. Interesting chart at T240 on the GFS 18z Return of summer for the south! . It has that low to the south as per ECM but not in quite the same place. Interesting times once again. Then this at T276: Then it loses the plot, if it ever had it. But that hot late August early September is definitely on the cards, for me it's never been off them!
  11. Pub run maybe about to go off on one, push this on faster we'll see, T120:
  12. To add to MWB response ^, I've put most of this through Google translate a while back and have come to the following conclusions, anyone please correct me if I've got details wrong. A cluster is a group of runs that meteorologists think are similar for forecasts several days out. Example chart: The colours show geopotential height anomaly at 500mbar (Z500) against 1981-2010 data, a question remains in my mind whether this changes with seasons?, contours show actual Z500 values for one run for each cluster (of runs that are deemed by the guys at ECMWF to be similar). Top left is the time of the run, and the time of the forecast. Top right, the flokkunigluggy thing is the time frames that this particular cluster is valid, before or after there may be more or fewer clusters, depending on what the models are saying. Then the 6 cluster diagrams, in order of decreasing likelihood, these break the 51 ECM ensembles into groups that behave the same way as uncertainty increases as forecast time increases. The numbers above each chart state the number of runs in each cluster, and the percentage, and then the Fulltr. This means 'delegate' so this is the number of the ensemble run which best reflects the cluster as a whole, so it's not an average, it's one run that best fits the defined cluster in the interpretation of ECMWF. Finally, the bottom bit depicts four synoptic patterns relevant to Iceland, and fortunately for us also!, and gives their likelihood from climatology, colour coded as follows: Blue - Positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Green - Negative NAO Red - (Scandi) Blocking Purple - (Atlantic) Ridge These colours also border the cluster plots above, basically saying (because the plots themselves cover such a small area of the globe) what the wider picture for each cluster is. Hope that helps!
  13. Interesting end to the ECM 12z, yesterday had the high pushing into the UK at the end of the run. This time pushing through, here T240: Interesting feature to the south as well.
  14. The push of high pressure over the UK, which I mused about last night seems still to be on the cards although obviously it's late into the runs so could change. GEM at T240: GFS takes until T264: but looking at the rest of the run, it doesn't seem to push the high east of the UK to draw up significant heat. Still more runs needed.
  15. I guess it's a personal preference thing as to how we rate the models tonight. I'd like settled conditions not bothered how hot, others may want late summer heat. But here's the state of play at T240 from the models: Those that have high pressure nosing in, FIM9, ECM, GFS: And those with the Atlantic ridge UK trough, GEM and FV3: Resolve this and we will have a good take on late August and possibly September too, more runs needed!
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