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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on July 18

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    Wantage, Oxon
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    Hot, cold!

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  1. UKMO 12z has the trough lifting out to our NE by T144, would like to check the T168 chart on this but so far, so good: Contrast GFS which has the trough remaining in situ at same time, with heights building into Greenland - this is the evolution that I think is wrong, but GFS persisting with it for the moment:
  2. AROME 12z run cumulative precipitation to T24: Looks like it follows the MO warnings, anywhere from the SW to midlands excepting far SE. No Kent clipper, but what the rest of us get - that’s up for grabs….
  3. Usually in the NH winter (not last year, which was weird) as I’m sure you know, our weather pattern is driven by the trop polar vortex, which is in turn driven by the strat polar vortex. Summer is different because that driver isn’t there, which is why summer patterns are less predicable, highs and lows just drift about unless there is something like 2018 which is unusual.
  4. Yep, fair point @knocker and I think it is more pertinent in summer because the background drivers are less clear than they are in winter. Some summers are predictable, 2018 was, but most aren’t and we have to go week to week, but surely with some knowledge of the long range models too (which are hot and dry for the remainder of summer, well GloSea5 is anyway).
  5. The models are more reliable in winter than summer. My issue with the anomalies, is that they are based on the models I look at anyway, the ensembles anyway. Still, I agree to differ, your posts are always informative and well thought out and often right. But me personally once beyond FI on the op runs, I prefer to look to background signals for guidance. That doesn’t mean I don’t post T240 charts of course, but as an illustration of possibilities at this stage.
  6. They aren’t a disaster at T144 Why anyone would want to look at them further ahead and make judgements on that is beyond me in summer, to be honest. The models aren’t reliable at that timeframe in summer, and that includes the anomalies in my opinion, which are always used to predict on the 10 day period or beyond anyway.
  7. It would do if I believed the anomaly charts were gospel…but I don’t. Looking at ECM clusters, there’s only one to T240 so no point posting chart. Massive uncertainty is what is ahead after this weekend…that is what the anomaly chart is reflecting, averaged over everything it can be averaged over, of course.
  8. Yes, Matt, i don’t know, the GFS gets more air time for a number of reasons, 4 times a day, all data freely available, it is behind most weather apps because it is free. You kind of have to be a bit of a nerd to seek out the UKMO and ECM, which fortunately I am. But you’ve also got to remember that the models are poorest at this time of year, so FI is T120 at best. I still have hope based on UKMO 12z that the settled spell will continue past the weekend breakdown, others don’t seem so sure…we will see…
  9. I think the key difference between UKMO and ECM at T144 was this feature: ECM makes much more of it and it goes on to stick us in a trough again. UKMO doesn’t.
  10. ECM and UKMO at T144: If anything the ECM pushing further north with the ridge, I think this run is going to be a good one, with a return to settled conditions, although not as hot, fairly quickly after the weekend breakdown. Despite what the naysayers say. I’d be backing UKMO, ECM combo here at this range. Edit, then a little feature deepens at T168 and ruins it. Not there on UKMO.
  11. UKMO 12z seems to clear the unsettled weather out of the way quite quickly, here T144 Probably well worth looking at the T168 chart later. If the high noses in further quite quickly it would back up thoughts of a swift return to summer heat.
  12. ECM at T168: Will this one ridge over the top? The little low 500 miles west of Ireland might have a say in that, but the UK low looks less deep here.
  13. Interestingly it is GFS tonight that wants to bring the heat back after next weekend’s wobble. It is usually the party pooper. I think that this is the right solution, with pressure building again after the low clears. T246:
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