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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on December 1

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    Wantage, Oxon
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    Hot, cold!

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  1. Yes, you just need to load the 65N one and change to 60N in the URL, here's the chart: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_60N_10hpa_gefs.png Yes, still good at 65N - but the 'official' criterion for SSW is at 60N.
  2. Now up to 8/21 GEFS members going for a technical SSW, and the mean looks like it would hit the line in another day or so: I think we can say the displacement SSW will now happen but what next, will we get the split?
  3. Yes, sure to that, but I think some are getting overexcited by a GFS run in later stages that looked (to me anyway) suspect earlier. Time will tell, night all!
  4. This isn't as good as it looks from a UK perspective, pub run T336: No cold uppers over UK, and in any case most of this run before this chart was cobblers, but what interests me is the high heights incursion from the other side of the globe, talk about hitting a vortex when it's (going to be) down! Still need the follow up to the strat warming though...and that might just be delivered.
  5. Let's hope so. If that does happen the chances of the UK going into the freezer would be very high, I would imagine, >85%. If.
  6. Most runs have been dire for the weekend! I share your concerns in your earlier post, and indeed your post several days ago about the SSW. A displacement SSW which is now almost nailed on isn't enough to deliver the deep cold to the UK people are expecting of it, it needs to be followed up with a split or annihilation and that's not visible on the modelling yet - maybe only because it doesn't go that far out, that is the signal I will be looking for on subsequent runs.
  7. What I would like most from the pub run? Honestly - a chart on Meteociel that looks like an elephant. But we are where we are, T84, with 12z at same time for comparison Note the more elongated low on the latest run - forgive my memory, wasn't this a bowling ball a few days ago?
  8. ICON 18z , end of run T120, with 12z at same time for comparison Looks to me like the trough is disrupting more on the latest run, baby steps, and has actually been quite painful watching over the last few days, as I think we all know who wins in the end. Still we only get to comment on what the models churn out. Hey ho! On a more serious note, I applaud those who have spoken out about mental health issues tonight. I also have an anxiety disorder, suspected to be as a result of an autistic spectrum disorder, maybe it's why an interest in the weather which is so deep and fascinating draws me to this place...
  9. Yes, you can view a whole range of strat diagnostic charts from the ECM here: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html But it only goes out to T240, and what we are discussing here is still beyond that timescale. GFS has actually been good at picking up all the main SSWs that I can remember, I expect the FV3 to be better due to the higher resolution out to day 16. Hope that helps.
  10. Well, on the 12z runs, when the Atlantic breaks through, which it will there are some pretty nasty options on the table at T192, main models here: Three of those look absolutely horrible!
  11. Some thoughts on viewing the strat charts today, and many have been posted. Given the reliability of the charts at much longer range for these compared to the weather down here, it seems sensible to use the FV3 take simply because of the high resolution out to day 16. So the 12z run, peak heat is T336 Leading to this at the end of the run, T384: Clearly a displacement of the vortex. But as @chionomaniac has been explaining in the strat thread, we may need something more than this to finish it off. This is what I will now be looking for on the strat charts. Also, when the main warming is down to T240, will be useful to get ECMs take on it via the Berlin site.
  12. As we enter Christmas week, didn't really see this evolution, but we could do worse than the JMA, here T264: So, from today, positives on all three timescales: An altogether more concerted effort by the block to resist the Atlantic, it won't win but might allow for some snow for some in the meantime. Possible amplification in the run up to Christmas with the possibility of a, probably fairly brief, northerly. Massive interest in the longer term, post the SSW if it happens. Good times.
  13. Strat warming latest on FV3, here at T348 and T384: Powerful! But we do need to keep a watch that we don't end up on the wrong side of the vortex, even so!
  14. Very uncertain at the moment, but last run FV3 at T300 has this: Which I would say is not as amplified as it could be, I think there is a possibility of a more potent northerly than this just before Christmas but there is a lot of uncertainty to get out of the way this week first, Theresa May would concur, I'm sure!
  15. The Atlantic wins this one, FV3 T162: Well we kind of knew that, it's what comes after, I've been banging on about this for a while, northerly incoming, either next attempt or the one after!