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Mike Poole

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Mike Poole last won the day on June 12

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  1. ECM enemble mean rock solid concerning the Azores ridge over the whole UK: i think we can be pretty certain about a long dry spell. How warm will depend on where the centre of the high sets up which may change a bit, but probably not too much, in future runs, but better model output across all models at this time of year would be hard to find!
  2. ECM 0z is monster, here at T192, T216, T240: 850's: 16C widely!
  3. Add into the mix the ICON at T180, and I'm starting to think that on the back of the 0z ECM and ensembles we may see a settled full house in the 12s at least out to day 10, or as far as the models go, here's hoping:
  4. Interesting on the GFS 18z ensemble mean, we're through to T336, and there's a signal for higher pressure just to the east of the UK: This is what we want to see more of to land some decent hot summery spells. Hopefully a lobe of high pressure breaks off to the east of us as part of the Azores high ridging. I think this scenario growing in likelihood.
  5. GFS 18z, well the evolution in the later stages is interesting, high cantered out west to start with, moves east, and then combines with new link up with the Azores: All in all, good runs today, roll on tomorrow.
  6. Yes, I agree for ensemble mean charts these are very very good, and the ECM 12z op was also looking good. If the main criticism of some runs was the high centred west of the UK, if it is a ridge from the Azores it has to go through a period with the high centered west to get to a more favourable position to the east doesn't it? GEM 12z good to T174, then wobbly. FIM9 ends very well tonight at T240: Azores ridge over the whole UK
  7. The GFS 6z op run is also superb. Here's the back end stretching the settled spell into July: The centre of the high moves around but remains close to the UK throughout.
  8. The June GloSea5 charts are out, and it looks a very similar story to the May output. Big signal for warmer than average, possibly significantly so. Here's the tertile charts and outer quintile charts for 2m temperature for Europe, over Jul, Aug, Sep:
  9. GFS 18z to T192: Great run for much of the country, tonight's output definitely looking like an improvement. Then we get to this T276, where did this come from?
  10. Catching up on models after a long day, I think the 12s as a whole are an improvement on the last 24 hours, I think the ECM ensemble mean at T240 sums this view up:
  11. Yep, Frosty, I think a decent period days 5-9 looks good from most of the model output, with the caveat that this will mostly favour the south, thereafter all is uncertain at the moment.
  12. The ECM ensemble mean at T240 is best described as virtually a total absence of knowledge: Let's see what tomorrow's runs bring.
  13. ECM 12z ends in a mess, looks similar to the GEM, here at T240 no Atlantic ridge as per GFS. I think we are going to need to be patient regarding the evolution after about day 7, more runs needed.
  14. Maybe today it's changing, but my recollection of the previous couple of days is different, it was more consistent. Let's see what the ECM's take on it is, the ensembles will be interesting too. i'm certainly not saying the GFS at T240 will verify, just that there seems to me to be much more uncertainty today.
  15. Certainly agree re UKMO but that stops at T144. But I think the GFS story is worth elaborating on. It quickly goes downhill after that point, and given we thought there was a decent signal for the decent weather to be extended, it's noteworthy that this run again builds this Atlantic ridge which could become a major pain. Here T240: GEM isn't great either but it's totally different to this at the end of the run. Uncertainty reigns this evening.
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