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Thunder?
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    Yatton, South of Bristol

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  1. Ah! I wondered if it might be him :)

  2. Gents, can we have a little laymans please, so I could understand what this may mean for the UK. I can see on the output the amount of blocking, but the UK seems to miss the cold air. Maybe another 7 days before the icandy charts start to show? Thanks.
  3. I have friends who are still NOT back in their homes in Somerset. Somerset 100 times worse than the current situation in the north. At least people in the north had a chance to recover some belongings when the water went down..........the people in Somerset lost everything and couldn't recover a thing. The water never went down for months!!!
  4. "We continue to anticipate that the polar vortex will be sufficiently perturbed/weakened to allow colder weather to spread over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes starting in January. Still, If the energy transfer is not sufficiently strong over the next month or so to weaken the polar vortex, then the winter AO is likely to average positive in the mean and a mild weather pattern will dominate the mid-latitude continents for the remainder of the winter." No confidence from Cohen regarding next year.......IF we do we do, if we don't we don't. The more likely outcome will be the AO will stay around positive.
  5. Because this year we have a very strong El Nino driving everything, so there's no chance of another March 2013 in March 2016. And it needs to be 'as cold' otherwise any snow will just disappear in March sunshine.
  6. Yes, but 2013 will not be repeated. And in most places that year the temps were cold but no snow.
  7. The good thing is only 9 weeks of winter left
  8. You can have as much scientific basis as you want, but when it comes to the weather nothing pans out as your shown. So many people said a SSW was nailed last year around Xmas (matt Hugo etc) this was based on sceince, I think it was described in the end as half a SSW but in reality it didnt happen. So what years as you basing this El nino setup with regards to a SSW? I dont believe there are any comparisons and we are in uncharted teritory. It's good to have a straw to clutch, keeps the interested, but nothing is guaranteed. More mild, above average conditions are expected through jaunary. I am basing my thoughts on their science and models (met). Also we live in a mild climate, continuous days of freezing temperatures let alone weeks is the extreme.
  9. Massive straw clutching that the MJO will save us and even more that a SSW will occur. The El Nino is massively over riding everything.
  10. I liked the quote, it said a change to much colder conditions for eastern USA and/or Europe, I'm sure it will change to much colder conditions for eastern USA with Europe above average!
  11. Thats not how I read it.....the first paragraph says 'not predicted to be of sufficient amplitude to significantly weaken the stratospheric polar vortex'. Then says 'if the additional energy pulses are of insufficient duration and amplitude'......then to me it seems we are in for more of the same pattern for a good deal of winter yet.
  12. I wonder if the weather will balance out as some people like to think.......are we in for some really cold days soon??
  13. I think your first sentence or so completely agrees with my point regarding sometimes above and sometimes below average. November isn't winter...winter started 6 days ago. I've lived in the same area since 1981, and as u describe some snow in November and colder days in December. 1991 for a few days great, 2009/10 the exception. Cheer up, winter has just begun. Move to a more seasonal country is my advice for u. It's only the weather.....
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