KTtom

Yes, last 2 gfs runs are trending in the wrong diection...2 things evident in relation to the 'main event' is its still over 10 days away and longjevity is decreasing run by run. Wonder if early next week will end up being the main event!

As others have said, great model agreement, colder yes, initially mainly dry, that takes us to mid month. The next thing im looking for is the extended forecast to be updated by the Met. Its been the same for the last few days with that annoying sentance about severe cold being deemed low. Surely the update will be rewritten tomorrow as the start date is currently 19th.

Eddited my post to include day 10... a bit of a mess as both lows head for a collision right over the UK!

The same battle developing on ecm as gfs between lows to the north with colder air in its wake and a threat from the south west..both lows making lanfall at day 10 but the high is being pushed further west..

Yea, that is the risk. Its would be a race against time as to which gets to the UK first..at least it wouldnt be boring.

It was mentioned by a poster last night but didnt really get much of attention but the Atlantic lows to the south west are slowly beginning to be modeled with more and more influence day by day. In my opinion,this is good news, given we get the cold in place then we may see some good snowfall somewhere as opposed to days on days of dry frosty weather we had pre christmas and on occassions last year... Gfs day 12...

Hmm, is ECM already starting to show potential obstacles to the clean transition? Awaits the words 'delay'

My post regarding the threat from the SW was relating to low pressure moving in before the effects of a GH take hold.

Isnt it funny how the met get lambasted when they are not on board for being behind the times yet lorded when they back cold? Even they are strongly hinting at dry and cold. Regarding telleconnections etc, mid July there was rock solid support for a very warm dry August... couldnt have been further off the mark. So, anyone feeling pensive over something 2 weeks away has every reason. Personal opinion, Greenland high mid month is likely but watch south west, I have a feeling it wont be as 'clean' as some might think come 144.

You gitt! You have a sleet shower on Sunday! It does make me smile, the 'main event' they are chasing now in the other thread has moved out another 2 weeks...watch the Azores Low move in nearer the time to scupper things.

See what you have done there, getting cold and snow here is like skiing uphill backwards..Happy New Year...

That really is a classic chart to illustrate the issues we have with our location.

Seems fairly consistant to me, dry, cold and frosty with any incursions (deemed unlikely) from a western quadrant as opposed to east..those who like cold and frosty will be delighted, those wanting deep snow left waiting.

High pressure dominance seems to be the way foreward through Jan. Cold and frosty hopefully and not cold and dreery. I think it shown what a low bar has been set over the last few years that a UK high is seen as a possitive for mid winter where in years gone by it would be seen as a waste of valuable winter time. I wonder if the snow loving Greeks view a UK high the way we see a Greenland high...always delivers..

Been here so many times over the last 20 odd years of model watching during the winter months...ridge, mid Atlantic, moves over the UK, giving a glancing easterly flow to the south east with some wintry showers. Meanders around the UK before being drawn north west to the Iceland / Greenland region. I see nothing to say this will be any different. Hate to say it, but a bit of patience needed. Colder, dryer and frosty from week 2, snow more likely weeks 3 and 4 Jan. Thats my take for what its worth.

Same here, stick to the big 3 if you want a fair assessment, if you look hard enough you will always find what you want to see with all the models out there. The others are only any real use to highlight how poor the pattern is, its the only time they get mentioned!.. I'm awaiting someone to post a chart from JMA!

Not a wonderful set of runs overnight..gfs does at least give us a UK high for a while..not very often Exeter promote more wintry conditions that the models are showing, im getting more nervous every day checking their updates, something must change very soon, either model output or Mets updates. UKMO day 7 chart hardly supporting hard frosts for nothern areas..

To be fair to John, at least he is posting a chart which exists. The majority of posts over the last 2 pages are relating to ecm post day 10 which is pure guesswork?

Slow burner?! Blummin daffodils will be up by the time that goes cold

..and then we get the much anticipated SSW which knocks the pattern back to Mild! Merry Christmas

ECM, finally we loose the heights over europe and the westerlies, to be replaced by southwesterlies !

So, if im reading these correctly a 10 to 20 pascal possitive anomoly over Greenland / Iceland area. Does this equate to high pressure, which im sure most instantly think when looking at those charts, or just not quite as low as normal? Quite a difference between the 2. Back to the more reliable timeframe and UKMO sticking with the UK limpet low idea to see in the new year..

Ive mentioned this before, those posting factual information on here are under appreciated and get drowned out by those seeking to be liked... Gfs in particular and UKMO seem to be going down the UK trough route for the turn of the year...otherwise known as the limpit UK low! No signs at all of any blocking setting up in a favourable location as yet. Even going out as far as day 10 the 2 main drivers in delivering a wet and mild winter to the UK are very evident..

Ive been to Stockholm, lovely city...im off to Ruka near Kuusamo end of Jan...If you want a snow fix, thats the place..(google Ruka web cams)

Think it may be similar to 'the torpedoe has been launched'