KTtom

Just woken to a nice covering of....water! Yes its been raining again!

Yes the long fetch southwesterlies are notorious for rain 'streamers' the north west, especially Cumbria often sees flooding from these set ups. Longer term as the month turns, something dryer on the cards as pressure builds from the south...could feel quite S*****like!

Sods law, when you want a low to track further south into France, it'll stay put! Shows 90 + for my location

The other startling observation looking through this mornings models is how quick a south westerly flow can blow away the cold over Scandinavia... Ive a vested interest in Kuusamo weather in Finland, its been hovering about -20 since before xmas.. a 20 c rise expected in a weeks time.

As mentioned above, UKMO slaps a nasty storm smack over the UK next weekend! Damaging winds in the south IF it were to verify like this..the other thing that jumps out at you with this chart is just how flat the pattern is..

To be fair, if you looked at the models in isolation without the verbal commentry on the forum then Im not so sure too much has changed. GFS has brought the end of the snap/spell foreward but never had it long lasting from what I can remember. Met got it surprisingly wrong but must have been confident to stick their necks out.

UK with its very own + 10 isotherm..

You win !

Hmm, cant believe Im that much younger than you.. I have fond memories of '82 here, that certainly wont be repeated in my lifetime...on the plus side, I appear to have a yellow warning for snow on Wednesday night.. might get a passing shower

I think the dissapointment is how quickly the whole pattern falls apart just as it looks to get intersting. Day 10 charts from the mid term models are really poor and will see out Jan if they verify. Too much ramping getting folks hopes up.

Agree, these 'surprises' are usually when you get a cold flow established , next week we go WNW to N and then NW in 48 hrs.

Unfortunately history tells us it will probably have far more guts than this cold spell.

Even the so called 'northerly' is getting watered down run by run! It'll be a bloody southerly at this rate by the time we get to Wednesday!

Just thinking as I was running through the mocels..this has to go down as one of the biggest wild goose chases ever...what feels like an eternity for a brief powder puff northerly which a few years ago wouldnt have raised eyebrows let alone talked up for 3 weeks previous. You expect some to over egg it in here but cant remember the met getting something so wrong in their extended forecast (obviously things can still change in that part).This time next week solid agreement of gales and rain..I bet the longjevity of that is well forecast!... onto Feb...

For our location we could do with a bit of a more robust northerly to set up a good old Pembrokeshire Dangler, then a slight westerly tilt of north from the flow and bingo! The second part looks odds on, just as case if the northerly is sustained enough to get the dangler formed...

Goes to say, plenty of knowledge here in relation to the weather and background signals... forecasting for the UK is a different ball game..

Its the trend..south, south and then south. Previously it was Midlands..etc. A chance of some front edge snow next weekend if we can get enough of a wedge to preceed it to get a favourable tilt, otherwise, Im with Tim B.

Not sure if this is sarcasm? Apologies if not but can you back that up with some charts.. Maybe, the far south and far north but I'm missing this widespread snow...once again looks like a soft breakdown end of next week going by the longer term models (gfs & ECM)

I'd be extatic with that forecast! 5 and 6 degrees here with a rain shower Friday

Its not wonderful by any means and not what we were led to believe, even from the met. Again, I scratch my head to understand why some wanted the low to miss us to the south..we get another couple frosts before southwesterly gales take over..not much of a trade off! I was thinking it was more aimed at those who thought it was there to stay...it was a bit of humour...look at the gesture

UKMO as early as 72 hours seems to be sending out a message out over Greenland...

It would be ironic if we have ended up spending 3 weeks looking foreward to a handfull of days of frosts with some snow in Scotland! Well worth it!

yes, at least there is plenty of opportunity before then for some..

You're gonna get me shot ! UK long range weather forecast Tuesday 16 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend. Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Jan 2024

Thinking GFS had this nailed going 'Exeter's' update.. Milder air being drawn in by the the weekend'