KTtom

andy989 Just seen that on the news. No-one said it was going to be easy to forecast but a very poor effort by the Met from what I can see particularly for north Wales. If there was uncertainty it should have stayed as a yellow warning. From what the NW radar shows its pretty much a Pennines event only as far as England is concerned.

Lukesluckybunch As many said last night, there isnt any cold to the east to tap into if we did get an easterly unfortunately..cold uppers can quickly form under high pressure over the continent in mid winter but not in March..2018 was an exceptional event. Not getting the excitement over a SSW late Feb unless you follow the strat avidly like Febblizzard ...im finding UKMO day 7 chart strangely appealing with a southerly flow and hopefully some sunshine... Certainly for my location, spring is rolling in..

ANYWEATHER The odd one for me is the excitement over a potential SSW being modelled for the last week of Febuary...2018 was an exception and not the rule, traditionally the continent has no cold pool left by March.

On the face of it not a bad 216 chart. Hard to see where the colder uppers are comming from though..even if this comes off as shown we're a fair way away from the uppers we need for somthing interesting as we head into the second half of Feb.

East Lancs Rain lol, indeed. This photo is from my Finland trip last week, winter tyres and everyone driving around without a care in the world..

RJBingham sounds like the last cold spell, had 1 frost and a snow shower (which actually caused chaos) in my location. I note some who ramped up that spell have gone AWOL since

Just read the Mets forecast after seeing it mentioned a few times here...maybe the ECM day 10 (yes i know) is something akin to what they expect? Certainly nothing else even close on show to matching their text although a long way from a 'northerly'.

SLEETY or 10 months

Nothing scientific about this, but taking the 'big 3' as an example, if you get to t120 and one of them shows the milder route, in the UK then you can bet its nearer the truth than not..gfs was labelled a joke and not following 1 single ecm perb this morning...we await ecm to see it it holds firm...think I know what most are thinking. To get some abnormal weather events here in winter we need 3/3 agreement by day 4. Was it not @Tilly getting a hard time backing gfs this morning...things may change but its hard to see anything noteworthy for south of Manchester.

Not really seeing too much that differs from the Mets outlook to be honest, snow for northern hills as fronts associated with next weeks low push north, then some back edge snow possible anywhere as the system moves away leaving a weak northerly with snow showers around northern coasts before high pressure takes over, nothing too out the ordinary for late winter?

Fax chart at 120 a nice visual illustration not just for UK but Europe regarding the boundary between mild and cold...im in Northern Finland as I type and its just turned very cold after a reletively 'mild' start to the week (0 to -2 now -12)

@Lukesluckybunch yes, at first glance it looks pretty good at 192, then your eyes are drawn to the massive heights to our south and the conveyorbelt of lows moving west to east in the Atlantic over the top of the high preventing any ridging. Still, building blocks in a better position for 1 last chance of something a bit more interesting later in the month.

Im finding it gets earlier every year. Probably mid Feb for me...cold is no use in west Wales after this it wont give anything here apart from maintaining the oil useage. Im already desperately looking foreward to some lighter evenings.

Big differences between the 'big 3' at just 144, at 168 they are worlds apart in relation of what they want to do with the PV. Ukmo introduces a wedge to split it, gfs remains consistent in shifting it to Scandi, ecm splits the difference and leaves NW europe with a south westerly express! Some sort of pattern change as Feb kicks off, hopefully GFS is barking up the right tree! Edit: ecm finally shifts the PV in line with gfs by day 9.

@In Absence of True Seasons They do, however the odd fatality does tend to make the news headlines when it comes to storms however im sure many more people die during extreme cold spells which we never hear about.

66 mph gust already here which is equal to Sunday night, Sunday was an Amber warning today is a yellow? Have they underestimated this storm?

Topped out at 66 mph here on the western coast. Nothing exceptional for my location.

100% agree. There is absolutely no doubt telecommunications drive our weather..its obvious. The problem is finding someone who can put all the data into a credible forecast for the UK...currently we are still searching. As a poster said earlier, when things go wrong the get out clause from those who claim to know about these things is we are a tiny island in the grand scope of things, so why dont the 'usual rampers' factor this issue in before going overboard in the 1st place ?

I think it was Singularity (pro) who said yesterday to take Scandi highs with a large dose of sceptism in extended model forecasts. He/she appears to be correct, just as we head todards the T -7days the gfs is having none of it, infact starts to transfer a segment of PV to our north east around the day 10 period. Much like the Greenland high this week, it looked all to 'clean' at distance and then models pick up issues with the idea as we gen within day 10...hence the reason for asking about resolution last week. Anyway...better post a model chart...gfs day 10 Edit: Sorry Frosty, no idea why you are in my post

Lets hope EC continues with its reputation for day 10 charts, because this mornings is a shocker if its cold we're after..its not just our location look at the uppers to the east and north east

It certainly wont be something we'll be discussing this time next year i think the myth 'surprise features always crop up' can be put to bed now!..put it this way, i think next week will be far more memorable for a large swaythe of the country if for the wrong reasons..and no one forecst whats being modelled a couple weeks ago. Some sort of ridge forming to the north east is pretty likely for the following week pretty unanamous agreement, however the modelling of detail makes a massive difference in likely temperature, especially in Kuusamo where im going..the 18z and 00z gfs ops have a 20 c difference for 1st Feb with similar synoptics. Also worth remembering how there was good agreement for a substantial Greenland block until it came within t-144 for this week. Bit surprised with the GEM comment, looks like its just getting interesting to me

The problem with height rises to the east is if they dont migrate far enough north, with a section of deep vortex stationed over Greenland we often get stuck in no mans land with mild southerlies as per ECM. On a more seasonal note, woke to a decent snow shower here in W Wales which has left a dusting.

Same here up to now not even a frost just rain showers.. just looking at the radar and the snow showers are finally beginning to show up in the Irish sea which should get blown onto the coasts in the west as winds swing more north westerly in the morning. West Wales and the south west could see some lying snow tomorrow morning courtesy of the 'Dangler'

Not saying it wont happen in Feb, Met certainly hinting along the lines, however I think gfs got a little over excited this evening and may be a tad progressive with the idea....just beat me IDO

Again, if you look at the Net Weather Radar and click on 'weather type' you can see the snow is pretty much reserved for Scotland, not sure how accurate this is, but it got spot on here where we have had sleet showers at best..hardly a remarkable cold spell.