KTtom

Any ppn charts then to go with the above...all looking a bit December ish to me, or is that just my negativity comming out

Expectations far too high, people just looking at charts without taking into account by 168 hrs we will heading into week 2 March...Met have me for 8 c next Tuesday as the big freeze hits!

It does look, well to me anyhow, that we are looking at a 2 day spell of cold uppers (cold enough for snow) followed by the Atlantic pushing in. Maybe some brief snowfall but nothing really pointing to a long cold spell that I can see.

Dont think we are any closer yet to finding next weeks likely pattern...UKMO 168, as others have said look good, GFS control gets an outing which says it all about the op. Need to see something consistant within 144 over the next day or so. Increasing colder members from the 6th..?

Exciting week ahead weatherwise!

Gfs 06z about as far away from what we were expecting as you can be! Zzzzzz

Chart below.... must admit, its March soon, I cant be doing with weeks of dry cold...would love to see the GEM verify as some would see some disruptive snowfall for a change.

ECM very similar to yesterday, cold high to the north, Atlantic low threatening..

ECM / GEM sticking together with a sinker stinker! If were not getting cold, may as well have this as we head into week 2 March..

What a refreshing change! ECM day 10 has no potential

Its amazing, you can quickly log on for a catch up and learn all you need from the models just by the posts, or lack of themAt least it will be dry

Just nipped over to the other thread for a brief update....I take it the forthcomming blizzard is on track then?

Not sure a 20 degree scatter happens very often! A complete disorganised mess post day 7

A limited amount of support for the op, but not much. It seems to go off with its own ideas as early as 28th Feb. So, still no consistency. From this mornings runs I would say 50:50 chance of something interesting post 4th March, pretty much the same as last night.

Nope. Well its cold (ish) thats the best can be said for day 9. Day 10, weve been around the houses and got nowhere!

You certainly can't trust the ops at the moment...gfs ens posted above show the operational run to be coldest of the pack on the 4th, only to be warmest of the pack 2 days later! I think the Met 10 day video posted on the other page gives a good idea where we are at the moment with the SSW effect yet to be felt.

Personally I wouldn't be too upset with something like what the gfs shows with a deep low moving up from the south west into the cold. At least some will see some disruptive snowfall. Prefer that scenario, to days on end of cold, dry weather followed by a powder puff warm up.

Same here, coldest Max for next 10 days being 8 c! Anyone expecting 'ice days' from this cold spell possibility in March will be disappointed away from maybe Scotland. Love it when Icon gets rolled out though

Youll like the 00z even more! Could be quite a battle ground somewhere should this scenario come off!

To be fair that was a great spot this morning and 06z continues to back it up with a sinker.

60:40 in favour of a decent cold spell, a flip from yesterday in favour, howerver, we are still looking at the end of week 1 March...

I think Gowon is reffering to dry generally, which the gfs certainly is, pretty much throughout the run.

GFS ensembles seem to be splitting into 2 groups for March...currently around 30 % favouuring the colder option. Interesting that the operational keeps following this route though.

Yea, nothing unusual in having wild blocking scenarios showing in the far reaches of gfs as we head into March when the PV starts to weaken even without the effects of a SSW.

Must admit I find your posts a refreshing change from the over egged hype from most in here. I totally agree with your post, yes an exceptional 384 chart from gfs, and this is what we will need in March to deliver anything half decent for the southern half of the UK. At the moment..that 384 chart is the only chart out there which is decent. People looking at building blocks but the winter is ticking away quickly. 2013 may have delivered in March, but that was 10 years ago and the climate has changed alot in 10 years...as has been said previously by some, 2018 was a one off. From next weeks drop off, the gfs mean is on a constant up hill track until the end where the op goes on its own way.