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KTtom

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Posts posted by KTtom

  1. The 300 hrs chart that was posted and ridiculed is now at 120 and is as close to identical as you can get. Goes to show, when the signal is strong enough the gfs is quite capable of picking up thenpattern over 10 days away, just need to look for consistancy over run to run and seperate a trend from a rogue run. Anyway, UKMO 120.. Atlantic low boxed in over the UK, as posted above its then a case of watching it fill...slowly.

    UKMOPEU00_120_1-2.png

    • Like 2
  2.  damianslaw The worrying thing for those who, like me were hoping to get outdoors more over the easter weekend is just how consistant the models have been in the dropping of the lobe of PV down next week. Must be a very strong signal so even though we're still over the 168hr mark until easter we are only 5 days away from the deep Atlantic trough so I really cant see any chance of a major change now.

     Bats32 Hopefully its performance is the same as throughout winter! 🤐

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  3. Ukmo with a cluster of lows swarming around the UK for mid next week...excellent agreement for such a timeframe, although I doubt there is anyone out there wanting this you have to admit  gfs been showing this outcome for the run up to easter consistantly for days now baring last nights blip. The low does look like it will start to fill a little by the time we get to the weekend but staying cool and unsettled. It might be 7 to 10 days away but unfortunately  ill be amazed if all models switch to something settled and warm.

    UKMOPEU00_144_1-13.png

    • Like 5
  4.  stodge ecm going for the same scenario gfs was showing yesterday, and indeed what ukmo 168 shows tonight with a deep low dominating in the run up to the holiday weekend. Gfs 12z as you say on its own tonight. The Mets video posted above alse pretty identical, maybe with the trough a bit further out west but with all that high lattitude blocking to the west and east around its not shifting away quickly.

    ECMOPEU12_192_1-4.png

    • Like 1
  5. Does the stratosphere get more focus and attention then it deserves? It's fascinating and there is some good science behind it but it's renewed focus in recent years is likely due to the BFTE and the succession of poor winters that have preceded and followed it.

     

    Good question with the answer probably yes! I think most, like myself struggle with teleconnections so the good old SSW = Freeze is a nice simplistic correlation. The Met give it more attention than other drivers so we the public do likewise. I would say on average its the best signal we have when things are about to change and even that seems to be backfiring this year as they have struggled to effect the troposphere in a noticeable way.

    • Like 1
  6.  northwestsnow yea, sadly not unusual as the PV weakens in spring. Even with that chart the air source over the UK is circulating round the low and now a direct easterly. A look at the ens, a few still living the dream, including the op, but the vast majority following the average line and creeping into possitive values. As Met4cast said yesterday, unlikely to see anything particular cold or warm over the next 2 weeks.

    gfs-london-gb-515n-0e.jpeg-2.jpg

    • Like 4
  7.  Met4Cast ill go more basic than that, its currently 2nd March, certainly no signs of any BFTE for the next 7 days. That takes us to 2nd week of March. Continent warms up rapidly at this time of year with any cold uppers retreating north, sun is stronger, obviously whack CC into the equation and anyone hoping for bitter cold and snow before next winter are going to be dissapointed. 

    • Like 3
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