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KTtom

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Everything posted by KTtom

  1. Overnight Faxes firming up on the better days for the extended weekend being Saturday (away from the north west) and Sunday. Light winds from a southerly quarter with just a scattering of showers, subtle changes in wind direction hopefully resulting in us all having 1 dry and sunny day.
  2. Fax 120 indicating that although low pressure to the west will be domiant this weekend its by no means a total washout. Saturday looking fairly warm in a light southerly with sunshine and showers. Probably some downpours, particularly south west but at least not wall to wall rain and probably feeling quite nice if you are sheltered.
  3. The 300 hrs chart that was posted and ridiculed is now at 120 and is as close to identical as you can get. Goes to show, when the signal is strong enough the gfs is quite capable of picking up thenpattern over 10 days away, just need to look for consistancy over run to run and seperate a trend from a rogue run. Anyway, UKMO 120.. Atlantic low boxed in over the UK, as posted above its then a case of watching it fill...slowly.
  4. damianslaw The worrying thing for those who, like me were hoping to get outdoors more over the easter weekend is just how consistant the models have been in the dropping of the lobe of PV down next week. Must be a very strong signal so even though we're still over the 168hr mark until easter we are only 5 days away from the deep Atlantic trough so I really cant see any chance of a major change now. Bats32 Hopefully its performance is the same as throughout winter!
  5. Ukmo with a cluster of lows swarming around the UK for mid next week...excellent agreement for such a timeframe, although I doubt there is anyone out there wanting this you have to admit gfs been showing this outcome for the run up to easter consistantly for days now baring last nights blip. The low does look like it will start to fill a little by the time we get to the weekend but staying cool and unsettled. It might be 7 to 10 days away but unfortunately ill be amazed if all models switch to something settled and warm.
  6. stodge ecm going for the same scenario gfs was showing yesterday, and indeed what ukmo 168 shows tonight with a deep low dominating in the run up to the holiday weekend. Gfs 12z as you say on its own tonight. The Mets video posted above alse pretty identical, maybe with the trough a bit further out west but with all that high lattitude blocking to the west and east around its not shifting away quickly.
  7. ANYWEATHER totally agree when someone posts a rogue BFTE when the last 15 runs have all being mild but, I say again, the discussion you seem to have taken exception to was a trend of an overall pattern which has been a regular theme over the last few days, agree, detail will change but the overall pattern being shown does match the Mets forecast.
  8. ANYWEATHER Who has written off Easter? The discussion is the constant there of an Atlantic trough to the west in the build up to the weekend as shown by the models and being discussed in the model thread. This forum would be pretty boring if we could only discuss model output for 1 day ahead!
  9. Bats32 At the timeframe we are looking at you would expect some wild variations thrown up by the ops but like you say GFS been pretty unrelenting in the Atlantic trough dominating Easter weekend. 00z mean below a carbon copy of yesterdays ECM I posted.
  10. ECM backing the trend of an Atlantic trough in the run up to Easter..cant see anything out there that hints of a warm dry easter weekend, still time for a change but the trend isnt wonderful.
  11. ANYWEATHER I was aware of that, my point being, was, no matter how far ahead, what a ridiculous chart.
  12. GFS 0z officially loosing the plot by serving us this Easter hurricane! That said, we need a flip soon because it has been consistant with a very unsettled end of March.
  13. Does the stratosphere get more focus and attention then it deserves? It's fascinating and there is some good science behind it but it's renewed focus in recent years is likely due to the BFTE and the succession of poor winters that have preceded and followed it. Good question with the answer probably yes! I think most, like myself struggle with teleconnections so the good old SSW = Freeze is a nice simplistic correlation. The Met give it more attention than other drivers so we the public do likewise. I would say on average its the best signal we have when things are about to change and even that seems to be backfiring this year as they have struggled to effect the troposphere in a noticeable way.
  14. Hoping ECM have more luck with their day 10 charts in Spring than Winter..
  15. 06z ens also flipping around wildly from mid month. Operational goes from the warmest member to the coldext in 48hrs! General consensus is a mild and wet week to 10 days especially in the west then just maybe one of those classical switches from warm to cold we used to get in Spring.
  16. Sherry indeed, in fact post SSW the pattern looks very familiar if UKMO has got it right...south westerlies and euro high.
  17. feb1991blizzard not sure it proves its still possible to get ice days and blizzards or just that its still possible for a rogue ens member to thow in a big outlier...anyway...just getting a feeling the flicking of a switch is about to occur as we move out of the wet season into the dry season..get the car washed whilst you can
  18. Looking at the ecm 850's for later in the run and you can see why some think a straight northerly is better if you want a final taste of winter (or a first taste in some cases) as you head into Spring.
  19. northwestsnow yea, sadly not unusual as the PV weakens in spring. Even with that chart the air source over the UK is circulating round the low and now a direct easterly. A look at the ens, a few still living the dream, including the op, but the vast majority following the average line and creeping into possitive values. As Met4cast said yesterday, unlikely to see anything particular cold or warm over the next 2 weeks.
  20. Met4Cast ill go more basic than that, its currently 2nd March, certainly no signs of any BFTE for the next 7 days. That takes us to 2nd week of March. Continent warms up rapidly at this time of year with any cold uppers retreating north, sun is stronger, obviously whack CC into the equation and anyone hoping for bitter cold and snow before next winter are going to be dissapointed.
  21. The models having a final laugh at those of the cold persuasion now. The synoptics which had put the forum in hysteria mode now cropping up, before the SSW! A common theme these last few springs...talking of which, today is the first day of spring and we have big fat flakes of snow falling
  22. Ali1977 Although T-0hrs is not yet upon us, indications are once again that those charts are utterly useless. Even the hilliest parts of Wales only have a rain warning out. Modelling falling snow and snow depth charts really have a long way to go they have been diabolical these last few years, constantly over exaggerating wintry precipitation .
  23. Very nice gfs mean for middle of next week with what could be a warmish, dry spell, just hope it lasts until the following weekend. The opposite of what we look for in winter..an Atlantic trough Scandi high combo = southerly
  24. My personal feelings was that this SSW was far too late to help the UK into a wintry spell, but boy, I do hope it knocks us out of the diabolical pattern we seem to be stuck in..GFS for next weekend dominated by yet another UK limpet low with knowhere to go!
  25. Well if the day 10 snow charts that have been posted had verified we would all be fed up of the stuff by now! Hopefully, models are a bit more accurate with predicting high pressure...GFS Op hinting we may be able to dry off soon...
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