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Everything posted by KTtom

  1. This mornings brief uptick in the outlook for the end of the week has taken a downturn once again, difficult to see where ukmo is going but with a northerly flow at 144 its not going for a heatwave! Gfs back to a very autumnal look with strong winds and rain, which is backed somewhat by the Mets update today...the pubs and resteraunts here in Wales will not be happy!
  2. ECM making the gfs look good! Can only be a northerly to follow??
  3. I have to say, if anyone thinks this evenings output is ok, we're setting the bar a little low...talking of which, July mid month (chart below from gfs). Seems to be the case in the west in particular that the more settled spells are forming earlier and earlier in the year..
  4. Ecm with a clean sweep this morning introducing some much needed rain and unsettled conditions later next week, could be some heavy rain as it bumps into the warming air..
  5. Ukmo sits firmly with ECM this morning with a mobile wet and mild weekend, I think we know where that leaves the gfs chance of verifying!
  6. To be fair tho, those charts have to be the chocolate fireguard charts of the winter, In fact they must have run out of white pixels, those charts are very moderate compared to the whiteout charts posted in previous days, which delivered very little! Think its time to thow the towel in now and look foreward to some warmth.
  7. Snow showers here in west wales...blowing a gale.
  8. Unfortunately correct, the wedge which was, and is still due to make a fleeting appearance to the north of the uk is quickly swept aside eastwards (as illustrated above)...it may look close on that ecm run but in terms of the overall pattern it has no chance. Best bet at the moment looks to be the azores high ridging north and east post week 2 March which is what the gfs has been hinting at for some days now, and to be fair so have the Met. I think by mid march, most will be happy with that, particularly those in the midlands who live by the severn!
  9. Very nice UKMO this morning with a slither of heights building to the north of the UK, gfs was showing this a few days ago then dropped the idea to an extent, ecm totally different but well go with the UKMO ??
  10. Totally agree unfortunately, those snow charts posted above are notoriously innaccurate...just cant see anthing worth talking about for the south away from the moors and Beacons this Thursday, those that know (the ones we cant talk about here) have no mention of wintry precipitation in their forecast away from the north...on the flip side, thankfully the models arent showing any storm force winds which is reffered to in todays text update.
  11. Ah....potential in the ecm day 9 and 10 charts....in fairness these are probably the best couple of charts of the winter as the wedge of high pressure exiting the states at day 5 turns into a tasty Scandi high by day 9 with some very cold air being drawn south and west..
  12. Agreed, but some support from gfs a couple of days later?
  13. I know were talking day 10 plus again, but a trend for better heights building in the western atlantic from gfs and ecm, can the vortex get sufficiently east to give us a northerly to remember at the tail end of the season?
  14. Maybe some interest next week as colder uppers start to filter south...both gfs and ecm have this little feature crossing the uk wrapped in sub -5 uppers...no doubt the track will change slightly run to run but could be some signicant snow on its northern side..
  15. A glimmer, but the low exiting USA at day 10 is angled nicely to encourage the azores high to ridge north and give us a similar mid atlantic ridge as last nights gfs 18z...well thats my glass half full take on it anyway?
  16. Some places in the south and west can look foreward to around 30 hours rain this weekend, especially west and south as the fronts stall in the south westerly flow...on a seperate note, forgetting stratosphere influence, by the end of February the PV usually starts to fragment....this chart is what you would expect mid December...grim unless you have a liking for wind and rain!
  17. Probably the best gfs run of the winter! However, the entire run is influenced by the southerly tracking low at just 96hrs which allows a small ridge to form in its wake, which if you follow the run rides north of the vortex, sending further lows on a southerly track and eventually around day 8 joins the atlantic ridge. The ukmo doesnt develop the small ridge and looks to send the low at 96hrs further north. If the ukmo is correct the remainder of the gfs is garbage....
  18. And just to really rub the salt in, just when we get the cold air across the uk (Tuesday) its pradominantly dry away from the far north...(Met also going for a sunny and dry tuesday)
  19. Trying to find the uk in the first set of charts above gave me a headache,as for the second set......??
  20. Yes, i think a certain individual spends his life on here! Anyway, better ecm after the poor couple of gfs runs...im guessing this will end up a half way house again...expecting slight improvements on the gfs today..
  21. Well so much for that! As has been the case all winter, unless someone pops the azores high a couple of viagra its just not happpening! Quite ironic that in desperate times in the past, the Icon and Gem get brought out the closet, yet no one gave them any credance yesterday when they were going against the northerly.
  22. Bit more of a sobering ecm, especially later on and more in line with the Mets text forecasts, i.e. highnover the uk. Cracking gfs, although as some have already said, caution will be the buzz work, getting the azores high to ridge north has been like pulling teeth this winter, the powers that be also not even hinting at a northerly next week.
  23. We seem to be back where we started this morning! Even the 18z was flat. Very little signs og an atlantic ridge util post day 10 and we know how likely that is to come off........ You know when its bad when you start viewing the model output from + 144!
  24. Its an interesting debate but i personally find the 00z comes out as a balance between the colder 18z (which i dont even bother viewing live) and the 06z which i always find the flattest and most progressive, i guess the lesson is if you want to view every run (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) is to form an average at the end of the day as opposed to getting hung up on every individual run as some do...seem to remember a certain senior member of the forum constantly bangining on about this.
  25. Surely Ecm is lining up a very potent northerly for months end?? ....two other possitives, winter returns for scandinavia, and going by the upper air temps on the second chart, itll be some time before we have to hear about ice melt over Greenland....uppers off the scale! Ecm, day 10
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