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    Aberporth S W Wales
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    Obviously the weather

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  1. Ecm makes it a clean sweep for the Atlantic trough to have taken control over the UK by the weekend. At we should have a break from the relentless wind and rain this week. Where we go from there is uncertain, but hopefully the pattern is more progressive than the gfs has shown with its last couple of runs with a deep Atlantic low stationary just to the west or over the UK in the run up to Xmas. Ecm day 6:
  2. In the shorter term, strongly agree with post on the other page, can't understand the excitement of the block holding out a day or so longer leaving us in a southwesterly airflow as per ukmo day 6. Synoptically it might look good but it's not doing us any favours. We have been here many times before, watching winter days ebb away as the Atlantic battles the block which is too far east to be of any use to the vast majority of the uk. The sooner the Atlantic pushes through the better to give us a chance of something akin to the end of the gfs run. Ukmo day 6
  3. As usual on N-W a well presented forecast, what is unusual to read these days is such confidence in the latter part...Well done for having the guts to document such confidence, let's hope it's correct and arrives a little earlier than last year.
  4. Well the signals have obviously changed big time..the model output has been hinting at the demise of the ridge pre Xmas for a few days now and finally the Met have thrown in the towel..ECM day 10 probably showing our best bet at cold with a back edge northerly, unlikely to be anything worthwhile until we see one of the lows conveying out of Canada heading up the western side of Greenland and allowing the Atlantic ridge to move north......Unfortunately, this one isn't heading in the right direction!.
  5. It also, once again shows either how difficult forecasting is over our neck of the woods....or the Met are useless Only a few days ago the talk was IF the milder westerlies encroach it will be brief...I suspect the next modified text forecast will read IF it turns dryer it will be brief! I'd love to know what went hopelessly wrong if the latest output verifies.
  6. Overnight model runs, EC46, BBC forecast, Met forecast, ENS....not much really
  7. To be honest the whole output is dissaponting at the moment. I invested in outside lights this year for the run up to Christmas based on the Mets predictions of a dry settled spell from early December.. now it's looking like a transient area of high pressure before the wind and rain returns for Christmas. Currently looking like a bulk standard December on the way...help from the strat needed again this year?
  8. KTtom

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Well,it makes a change...us in the west have endured 2 consecutive misty bank holidays with temperatures barely getting into double figures, where the rest of the uk have been enjoying wall to wall sunshine and temperatures well into the 20's. I for 1 am really looking foreward to a cracking weekend with a real storm threat as we head back to work.
  9. KTtom

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    Some of you need to come to west Wales for a visit....heatwave?? ...3rd day on the trot of thick fog and temperatures around 13 c.....must be the only part of the country where things look like improving later in the week!
  10. KTtom

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Looking at the fax charts the end of the week is not looking as good as it was a couple of days ago..certainly for my location on the west coast there is far more cloud forecast, especially in the mornings, then we have a week cold front moving east on thursday with temperatures only forecast to reach 13c on Friday courtesy of a westerly breeze. Warming up a little for the weekend before it goes down hill from Sunday. Earlier in the week the high was forecast to be stronger with a continental feed.
  11. Good post....let' go out with a bang not a whimper ...Ukmo 168 looks ideal.
  12. Well this sums up my luck...The coldest spell for 10 years or whenever....and I've got my very own warm sector!!!! Anyone tell haw far north any ppn gets on ecm?
  13. Totally agree...great runs from gfs and ukmo for widespread snow...really tighteing up the isobars later in the week ahead of the snow as it inches north..probably going to be a ot of imby posts over this...those in the east and south east not so keen, but western and central areas it' the best set up for something more interesting than dry and very cold conditions...granted it' a risky set up but it will be spring by then after all.
  14. ....and the same gaps over western parts Can someone find a model with no gaps please!