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KTtom

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    Aberporth S W Wales
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    Obviously the weather

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  1. Looking like we are swapping the cold crisp sunny skies of April for less cold wind and rain for the forseeable, gfs pretty consistant with this tune right through its run...very different from last year! Come on Boris I need a holiday!
  2. 10 hours rain here, winds gusting over 60 mph at times....looks a repeat performance comming up this weekend...A very different May shaping up compared to last year...joys!
  3. Was just about to post this, the overall weather patterns seem to be getting predictable these last few years, temperatures vary and indeed this year is significantly cooler than last, however, after constant wind, rain and floods over the winter months, April, May and June sees us crying out for rain! This becomming a very real trend here in the west. Pretty sure we didnt get a drop last April or May and this year is setting up the same.
  4. GFS deserves Kudos here, if as anticipated it is correct with a strong Scandinavian block next weekend, ECM and the Met were pinning their charts/forecast on a mainly unsettled period from next weekend..gfs was having none of it and constantly showing a Scandi block...going by recent trends alone, April and May have been very blocked so im not surprised by the Euros trending towards the gfs. The model gets a slating in winter but for me it is still the best from 144 to 240 hrs.
  5. Not sure what to say, depending on your persuasion, interesting or horific charts on view for Easter weekend...more likely to be building a snowman rather than a sand castle!
  6. High shifts a bit further north during the week so we end up with a cold high by nextweekend with temperatures just below normal feeling cold in the east but pleasant in the sunshine elswhere. After that likely the high will drift south again and temperatures rise...all in all pretty much as the mets forecast...no sign of prononged or deep cold.
  7. Well if nothing else its one for the archives! -15 uppers down to the south coast
  8. Maybe this high isnt going to dominate quite as long as the models initially indicated? The big 3 all shift it east by day 6 before gfs lets the Atlantic back in, certainly no undercut on the cards but instead the PV sinks south bringing colder air to the north with southerly tracking lows...where the two shall meet??
  9. RIP Winter 2020 / 21 ! (Well unless a touch of frost floats your boat)!
  10. Some severe, maybe record breaking cold moving south into northern Russia by day 6, however thats as interesting as it gets in terms of cold. The UK looks set for a lengthy period of mild, wet and windy conditions, conditions out west looks pretty horrendous, this pattern of Atlantic trough euro high leaves the uk in the south westerly train which won't budge quickly.
  11. Despite the poor outlook regarding cold, ive no doubt there will be at least one more wintry outbreak, it doesnt take long for the models to flip, just look at the last week, not even the pro's just 5 days ago, and i'm talking in Exeter would have thought or predicted that 14 degrees would be achieved today in the south east where just a few days ago it was looking unlikely to get above zero.
  12. Im not liking the trend!, Was hoping for some springlike weather next weekend, ECM and others, keep probably the worst possible combination in place for the next 10 days, vortex over Iceland area and a B high! Not long ago some members were saying an Atlantic dominated pattern was off the table.....they may need to re think. This week is definately that (Thursdays fax), ecm taking it to day 10.
  13. Yes, i think there is a difference between shifting the cold and shifting a blocking high, shifting the cold is easy, models do tend to struggle in shifting a blocking high when the high is stood firm. What we have now is a decaying sinking high to our east.
  14. Im awaiting the ..its more likely to snow in easter than xmas comments on the other thread...the met forecast of significant snow risk for the south reminds me of 2019 when every update from xmas to march hinted at an easterly until when temps hit the 20's they dropped it! Ok, bit of an exageration but they constantly followed the EC46 predictions of HLB which never happened.
  15. Snowing on the western coast here, although its blowing around and sticking in places there is an icy sound as it hits the window.
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