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KTtom

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  • Gender
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  • Location
    Aberporth S W Wales
  • Interests
    Obviously the weather

    Liverpool F C

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  1. Perhaps the hunt isn't quite over yet...ecm following gfs....NH profile for the turn of the month...
  2. I think you'll find the pattern about 1000 miles further east!
  3. To be fair, they are getting closer, it started with north to north easterly winds, changed to easterly, now south easterly...give it a week and they will cotton on to the southerly flow !
  4. I think its time to give up now Don...I make it about 45 consecutive 16-30 day forecast that have been wrong...
  5. Exactly! I guess in a way it makes weather watching all the more interesting, as those 'background signals obviously have had little if any effect this year on a mediocre winter which looks like transitioning to spring pretty rapidly...ec46 you forgot to add has been a joke.
  6. Indeed more head scratching for the 'expert's...hideous looking outlook this morning if you like cold or are planning a European ski holiday....
  7. Unfortunately, we'll be lucky to get a dog end out of the 12z never mind a cigar! It's like a crap film, you're determined to watch it through hoping to God the end will be better. Edit...It didn't! Surely gfs has lost the plot with this chart...southerly gale??
  8. Regarding the hunt for cold, with the countless charts from various models I have reviewed this morning I think it's fair to say, by far the best by a country mile for cold and snow potential are the ones at T+0 !!
  9. To be fair the ukmo is wonderfull compared to the gfs.....if your of a nervous disposition look away now!
  10. Deleted... Posted these ecm day 10 charts thinking how accurate they were to yesterday's, then realised they are yesterday's!
  11. Isn't that 'forecast' just a summery of what we could expect in any February...?? Lets be honest, im sure many will stick up for them and we all recognise its a difficult job, however, these long range forecasts have been awful!
  12. Blimey, quiet this morning...not too much on offer mid to long term...ukmo, illustrates the latest frustration for the UK as potentially our last chance of a potent easterly mid month, the arctic high , as mentioned yesterday is stopped in it's tracks and tilted unfavourable by the low pressure system hitting our shores tomorrow...as it happens I'm off to Finland next week, wonder if I can get a good dollop of snow from the same system 4 days apart! 🙂
  13. I think the wrong one was posted ...here is todays UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019: Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible. Updated: 14:24 on Tue 29 Jan 2019 GMT
  14. Pages of rubbish which should be in the regionals......Model wise........ ECM 120, that arctic high nudging south into Scandinavia a real tease, frigid uppers on it's eastern flank being drawn south westwards...ironically it's Thursdays low which halts it's track! Note how the low which is giving so much excitement this Thursday sits over Finland and stops the high in it's tracks...ironic!
  15. Yes, tomorrow's front seems to be pushing through far quicker than originally anticipated...Thursday, however looking very juicy...classic angle of attack for disruptive snow.
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