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KTtom

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    Aberporth S W Wales
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    Obviously the weather

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  1. This mornings brief uptick in the outlook for the end of the week has taken a downturn once again, difficult to see where ukmo is going but with a northerly flow at 144 its not going for a heatwave! Gfs back to a very autumnal look with strong winds and rain, which is backed somewhat by the Mets update today...the pubs and resteraunts here in Wales will not be happy!
  2. ECM making the gfs look good! Can only be a northerly to follow??
  3. I have to say, if anyone thinks this evenings output is ok, we're setting the bar a little low...talking of which, July mid month (chart below from gfs). Seems to be the case in the west in particular that the more settled spells are forming earlier and earlier in the year..
  4. Ecm with a clean sweep this morning introducing some much needed rain and unsettled conditions later next week, could be some heavy rain as it bumps into the warming air..
  5. Ukmo sits firmly with ECM this morning with a mobile wet and mild weekend, I think we know where that leaves the gfs chance of verifying!
  6. To be fair tho, those charts have to be the chocolate fireguard charts of the winter, In fact they must have run out of white pixels, those charts are very moderate compared to the whiteout charts posted in previous days, which delivered very little! Think its time to thow the towel in now and look foreward to some warmth.
  7. Snow showers here in west wales...blowing a gale.
  8. Unfortunately correct, the wedge which was, and is still due to make a fleeting appearance to the north of the uk is quickly swept aside eastwards (as illustrated above)...it may look close on that ecm run but in terms of the overall pattern it has no chance. Best bet at the moment looks to be the azores high ridging north and east post week 2 March which is what the gfs has been hinting at for some days now, and to be fair so have the Met. I think by mid march, most will be happy with that, particularly those in the midlands who live by the severn!
  9. Very nice UKMO this morning with a slither of heights building to the north of the UK, gfs was showing this a few days ago then dropped the idea to an extent, ecm totally different but well go with the UKMO ??
  10. Totally agree unfortunately, those snow charts posted above are notoriously innaccurate...just cant see anthing worth talking about for the south away from the moors and Beacons this Thursday, those that know (the ones we cant talk about here) have no mention of wintry precipitation in their forecast away from the north...on the flip side, thankfully the models arent showing any storm force winds which is reffered to in todays text update.
  11. Ah....potential in the ecm day 9 and 10 charts....in fairness these are probably the best couple of charts of the winter as the wedge of high pressure exiting the states at day 5 turns into a tasty Scandi high by day 9 with some very cold air being drawn south and west..
  12. Agreed, but some support from gfs a couple of days later?
  13. I know were talking day 10 plus again, but a trend for better heights building in the western atlantic from gfs and ecm, can the vortex get sufficiently east to give us a northerly to remember at the tail end of the season?
  14. Maybe some interest next week as colder uppers start to filter south...both gfs and ecm have this little feature crossing the uk wrapped in sub -5 uppers...no doubt the track will change slightly run to run but could be some signicant snow on its northern side..
  15. A glimmer, but the low exiting USA at day 10 is angled nicely to encourage the azores high to ridge north and give us a similar mid atlantic ridge as last nights gfs 18z...well thats my glass half full take on it anyway?
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