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    Aberporth S W Wales
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    Obviously the weather

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  1. Gfs continues to throw out stunning winter synoptics...7 days away and a January '82 chart....
  2. Well the BBC is obviously paying close attention to the model output..Wales weather forecast just said the snow will move away for the weekend with temperatures lifting to 16 c, then went on to say there is a chance snow will return by the middle of next week!
  3. Thankfully at this time of year the ukmo not having anything to do with a northerly, gfs also significantly watered down...one final slap in the face for those desperate to see a snow flake....the issue regarding the northerly is the same as it's been all winter...the high just can't gain enough Lattitude..
  4. Temperature anomaly for week 1 April...not that this site covered itself in glory with its maps through the winter months...
  5. Yes, as mentioned yesterday, the Azores high just constantly fails to ridge north in the Atlantic, it seems to have been a constant all winter for models to show this happening around day 10 only to flatten it by the time we get inside 144. Yet again both gfs and ecm show a good Atlantic block and northerly at day 10...chances of it flattening by day 1 must be high on recent trends...in the meantime, this needs watching for Sunday, potentially disruption in the form of winds and even snow on hills....ecm has it further south, gfs doesn't have it at all!
  6. The Azores high comes to piddle on everyone party ...story of the winter...
  7. Apart from the milder blip as the trough moves through, it's really quite a stark period of below average temps to mid month...ok, no freeze with days on end of crisp lying snow, but with the instability, some I interesting weather watching times ahead from next week...
  8. It'll be interesting to see how this develops, gfs last couple of runs develops a ridge over southern Scandinavia after a brief northerly just as the next Atlantic trough arrives, keeping the cold uppers in place and slowing the Atlantic progression... Final humiliation for the Met as we get a cold spell just as they finally flip to a mild forecast??
  9. To me the major failure this winter, apart from the ability of anyone to successfully interoperate 'background signals is the failure of decent heights around Greenland...even now at 144 hrs it screams ridging of the high towards Greenland as we loose the dark blues, yet it decides to flatten and we return to a flat mobile pattern...rubbish winter apart from the event in the south..
  10. 12z so close to getting interesting regarding a final shot of winter.., heights in the right place to the north just need the lobe of vortex southern Greenland to back off west.....
  11. Perhaps the hunt isn't quite over yet...ecm following gfs....NH profile for the turn of the month...
  12. I think you'll find the pattern about 1000 miles further east!
  13. To be fair, they are getting closer, it started with north to north easterly winds, changed to easterly, now south easterly...give it a week and they will cotton on to the southerly flow !
  14. I think its time to give up now Don...I make it about 45 consecutive 16-30 day forecast that have been wrong...
  15. Exactly! I guess in a way it makes weather watching all the more interesting, as those 'background signals obviously have had little if any effect this year on a mediocre winter which looks like transitioning to spring pretty rapidly...ec46 you forgot to add has been a joke.
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