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pureasthedriven

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    Horley, near Gatwick

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  1. Most accurate ‘model’ this year 😂
  2. Current (stress current) modelling for my location (Gatwick) has cold, wet and occasional wintry mix - especially with convective showers - written all over it. Here’s hoping for those very minor favourable adjustments.
  3. Bit like ‘Scandi high’ when really, it isn’t.
  4. Just thought I’d re-flag. This was Saturday. Irritating I know, and unscientific. But great as a trend-watch. Whod’ve Thought? And today? Still nothing interesting...
  5. Didn’t see it but that doesn’t look too far off from latest ECM. Not without interest beyond that mind but here we are, as always, looking in the 7-10 day range for possibilities. One thing’s for sure, unless that Atlantic trough disrupts against our block and clears SE’wards, then the fabled ‘beasterly’ won’t happen. So maybe not a bad thing, as long as the block holds and doesn’t get blown away in a flat pattern. As for this week, I can see nothing of any interest. Seasonal - but seasonal doesn’t mean wintry.
  6. Tongue in cheek... But I’ve found it a bizarrely good barometer this winter. As a trend indicator. Until it shows something interesting, I don’t care what the actual models say.
  7. Horley is the micro-climate from hell!
  8. I’m guessing the angst is because once more - and it seems ever thus - the really good Synoptics are always 10-14 away. I know there was some good December snowfall, not that I saw a flake here. In fact, no lying snow here since March 2013. That’s nearly five years. Five!
  9. Thanks Frosty. I think there was an element of exasperation in my message! Cold rain (yet again this season) to look forward to here near Gatwick over the weekend before it all stars to look more mobile after the briefest of respites.
  10. Joyful. Absolutely contemptible out there this morning yet again. Never mind cold. Any chance of dry??
  11. All verification stats aside, I really don’t see it as the best performing model. Time and again it over-amplifies, especially in the 7-10 day range and it also has good form for last minute flips, too. The oft-maligned GFS, volatile as it often is, to me, calls the broad scale pattern changes the best, if one doesn’t get too obsessed by the micro-detail. That said, we’re not ‘there’ yet in terms of the actual weather.
  12. Yes, that was what I alluded to earlier in this run. Pretty sure the Feb 91 event had the AH nosing south to hold hands - albeit as you say, further west.
  13. It’s that potential link up with arctic heights that’s catching my eye on that chart.
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