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matty007

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  • Gender
    Male
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    Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunny and hot.

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  1. Thanks. Will make sure to post in the correct thread.
  2. I never implied that. Yes, there are people that know a lot more than me. They have far more knowledge of the weather than myself and of the models. That puts them in a better place to judge how the weather will develop, but outside of the reliable timeframe it is still wide predictions at best. That is solely down to the nature of weather, regardless of the amount of expertise evaluating it. Yes, more often than not it's wrong, you can't argue with statistics. I just made a casual comment that outside of the 6 day timeframe, the models are largely unreliable. That is fact. Why people are taking it as an insult is beyond me. And I still stick to the notion that if I had the opposite opinion, nobody would be calling this into question in the first place. Because my opinion goes against there's, they suddenly pick holes that can't exist. Long range forecasting is patchy, extremely unreliable and approaching guesswork even with some guidance, interpretation and extensive knowledge. Get over it.
  3. No offence taken. Just to say though, that not all the signs you are speaking of contradict my opinion...
  4. No no no. I came to say that I have a 'feeling' that this winter will be very mild. You know, the same way many are saying it will be cold? Whose right? God knows. I then went on to say that looking at the models NOW affirms this. We have had very little in the way of cold and the models in the reliable timeframe continue this trend. Of course, that may change. This is being taken way too seriously.
  5. I made quite clear the point of computer models. Short term wise they are very valuable. Looking weeks ahead, or months, while interesting, typically has no credence. All they do is let you see the current trends with a view to signalling the most probable outcome for the future. Is this not a prediction? Not only that, there are multiple ways of interpreting models which is why so many forecasts are so divided. Really we're going too deep here. All I came to say is that my 'gut' feeling is that it will be a very mild winter. I may be right, may be wrong. Makes no odds to me. I would be happy to see coldies get a cold winter as I was gifted a wonderful summer. It was just my thoughts and a prediction, the same as everybody else is making.
  6. But of course, we are going to tear them apart. 4-5 nil I would hope. We're on a real good run at the moment.
  7. Sorry, but you're wrong. Weather models are an amazing tool and are generally very good for short term forecasting, but that can not be said for long term. Sure, on occasion they may predict something in the long term, but that can mostly be attributed to an accurate or lucky prediction. Make enough predictions and you are bound to be correct eventually. All weather models are is a computer generated environment that analyses the current situation and then predicts the most likely outcome in relation to that current situation. Unfortunately the weather isn't that predictable and a slight change in wind direction, speed etc can turn a cold snap into a mild snap etc etc. Or a December 2010 into a December 2015. How many times has a credible forecaster touted a significant spell only for it to turn into nothing? How many times has a hot summer been predicted only to become a washout? If the weather models long term meant anything, there would be no need for forecasting. Anybody forecasting past the end of this week (myself included) is putting it in the hands of the gods. In summary, models are a vital tool for sub 5-6 day forecasting or there about. Past that, we are all predictors, not forecasters.
  8. Hehe. Let's be quite frank, trying to gauge the weather at anything past five days is a lottery. You can quote all the models and profiles you want, they mean diddly squat on the whole. I'm just going on pure hunch here, and I anticipate nothing but mildness and rain interspersed with a cold day or two mixed in. Maybe a dusting of snow for a few hours.Looking at the models, while irrelevant long term, only strengthens this in my opinion. I could end up with egg on my face, not really bothered. All us weather buffs are nothing but glorified fortune tellers with technology for assistance.
  9. Might be a very general and broad comment, but I personally see very little for optimism.. Very early days for Winter granted, but I have a overwhelming feeling this one will be rather wet, mild and overcast with very little in the way of cold. 2015 strikes again.
  10. matty007

    Autumn 2018

    Indeed. Miss Summer so much already.
  11. I agree with a previous post. This August aside from the first few days has been every bit as dull as 2008. Just endless cloud, slight chill and often wet. Glad to see that it may improve in September, as is often the way
  12. That is very true. I agree. I actually got a great tan this year because of the high UV. It’s just disappointing because it was such a great period of weather. It feels like it’s fallen off a cliff.
  13. Truly feels like Autumn has come early. 15c today and one minute sunny, one minute raining. No strength in the sun when it did come out either. Felt very cool this evening too. I truly believe that because Summer started early in May, it’s now turned to Autumn earlier than usual.
  14. Not a nice day at all here in Haverhill, Suffolk. Not a peek of sun all day and it’s raining again. This is honestly one of the dullest August’s in recent memory. Lucky to get five minutes of sun each day and it’s been rather breezy and rainy. I would say we’ve easily had under 80 hours of sun this month. Terrible August to be quite honest
  15. August 2003 similar to July 2015 really. Record breaking temperature, but on the whole, not great.
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