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Everything posted by storm1080
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It was just crazy, I have a couple of good pics and I am about to go out in the hire car (Smax) with the rear seats down, and sit in the back and take photos from an elevated position facing SW. I was up outside till 2.30, plus when the monsoon rain came, literally just stood in it (without camera). They are SO slow moving, and I am SO tired from lack of sleep..but I don't want to miss this one again. Pictures to follow. The system is huge, but I don't know if its peaked? Yet to hit land, if its anything like last night http://www.sat24.com/en/fr
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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
storm1080 replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Got a free pass to storm chase this evening, where would you go 2 hours from Southampton? Don't say Nottinghamshire ;-) -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
storm1080 replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Still no rain/storms in Pompey lol I feel bad for suggesting you come back lol -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
storm1080 replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
same here, south central, no rain, no thunder...everythings missing us -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards
storm1080 replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
We have had nowt in Pompey not even rain -
Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aren't we seeing warmer air being circulated from a new low that "attachs" itself to the original low - thus appearing like the AH rebuilds? -
is there a list somewhere of decent elevated viewpoints south facing. ie in hamps we have blunsdown hill, portsdown hill.
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Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS/ECM/UKMO have the low doing it's merry little dance quite far south into the Bay of Biscay (especially the GFS) T96-120. Is that because the of the jetstream? -
Highly probable I'm up Portsdown Hill above Portsmouth with AdiF in 20 minutes, we'll let you know what we see
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Off to the middle of nowhere 45 mins east of La Rochelle at parents, Thurs, big open skies, looking forward to this week now with the storms coming fingers crossed, and what weather my parents get down there. 37c today for them (they spent all day in doors). Saw my last lightshow there in a huge isolated MCS Looking at Raintoday radar...think Pompeys in the firing line...shame it's still so light....but beggars can;t be choosers
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That MCS over Caen doesn't look very isolated...sure I'll see that when I go up Portsdwon Hill over pompey later...shame it's so light till so late... Latest ECM/GFS runs have this SW'ly humid flow for most, if not all of next week..
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Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice theory, but wont the force of the jetstream this time round make a difference...Hope you're right... -
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards
storm1080 replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Latest GFS has the low heading on a more ESE track as well..tues evening for us Central Southerners looks interesting -
Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Latest GFS has the first inbound low on a more southerly track again -
Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Does the remnants of the current high /warm uppers etc prevent the low from passing over us to the NE (so says the GFS). Will it 100% make it spin/move back west and then south, repeating the process? -
Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'll grasp those straws , but I don't think we'll beat the jetstream -
Man, I hope that 00z GFS run doesnt come off T114, going to France and I too dont want 20c and grey skies....can't believe this timing, a lot of end of term holidays affected
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Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Deeper into GFS FI, will the low really hang around/stall that long? Interesting the low no longer detours via Spain, thats been a change in the realistic time frame, however I really hope it moves thru as opposing to passing over us, then heading west and bck down to france. -
Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Now the iberian low is south of greenland, and in FI charts depict a mass of green 850 air eventually meeting it once it's over the UK...is there any concern/thoughts about that. There hasn't been to much discussion yet, maybe because it's FI, but for a while now GFS has been staunch in its forecast of this 1st iberian low...this 1st low brings a change/ fun , storms!, but it's what comes after that intrigues me.. -
Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Stage 1 of the "breakdown" is "95% inevitable" ;-), it's what happens after. After all a breakdown/blip could last 24 hours...It's what happens post-breakdown that intrigues/concerns me. If the azores high ridge can steer any secondary lows away that would be great, but I can't help feeling we're in for a) the 1st low hanging around a while, or B, esp via the GFS, successive lows.. -
Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 6z hits at this ridge T165 -
Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13
storm1080 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think I saw on the most recent ECM T96/144 a big ridge from the azores high extend northwards mid atlantic, could that help block/shut northwards the second low thats "due", after this iberian