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Tim Bland

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    STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
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    I AM A POLICE OFFICER, HAD AN INTEREST IN WEATHER FROM A YOUNG AGE. MY AMBITION IS TO GO STORM CHASING IN TORNADO ALLEY - STILL WORKING ON THE WIFE!

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  1. Not a bad position to be in at the start of winter. Heights are a bit lower over the northern states than 00z but pressure is much lower over Southern Europe and heights are building towards Greenland. Just want to keep the PV over the eastern side, don’t want to see it creaping back towards Canada
  2. Potential northerly coming up? I’d prefer that to a toothless easterly tbh. Better chances of tapping into colder air sources from arctic
  3. GFS kind of backs The met office further outlook into December unfortunately.
  4. Whilst it’s quiet: can’t help but feel deflated reading the meto outlook 1-15 dec. snow isn’t mentioned at all and it sounds very average. Hopefully this will change soon but perhaps the models we don’t see are currently showing a collapse of the block into early December ...
  5. Slight exaggeration to say the U.K. will ‘grind to a halt’ . Most central areas stay dry on the latest Gfs. Below is the total snow cover by the end. Still great to see this early in the season !
  6. Back down to earth with a bump...cold lacking for Europe not just the U.K.
  7. This looks like the sceuro high option the eps was showing so not out of the question
  8. Cold enough for some snow in the south east as early as Tuesday on tonight’s ECM and UKMO especially with a bit of height ...
  9. Does sceuro mean scandi euro high? Are we saying ec46 shows high over scandi extending south but Atlantic Air knocking on our door?
  10. I partly agree (see above) but for snow “falling” I found it fairly accurate last season and the season before. With uppers of -6 and a dry cold easterly feed from the continent with a dew point 0 - 1c I don’t see an issue with wet snow falling
  11. Yes, I’ve said before that these charts indicate the amount of snow that falls and then accumulated everything. So In marginal situations the depth is very inaccurate. Over the last few years I’ve found it fairly accurate (when used at short range) at forecasting snow fall.
  12. Nothing faux about the cold at day 9 on ECM could be some light faux...I mean snow in the south!
  13. The issue with surface cold is that it doesn’t lead to snow ...which is what most on here want / crave. Might get frost or Rime or freezing rain. of concern for me is the fact that the GFS op follows the control. Patience is the key with this pattern, unlikely we will see snow before December still
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