Timmytour

If the GFS was telling us the Atlantic would cut through a beast from the east like that, you know it would be spot on!

I guess the positioning of the Rex Block was maybe a 1 in a 100 year event?

I think your expectations must have been formed in the mid 90s Average of rolling 10 day max CETs for August split into ten day periods (excludes 31st August)

For many many years of my life, long before I understood what one was, I've got it into my head that an Omega block in the north Atlantic at the right time would bring the UK the holy grail of winters for those of us who love the snow, ice and cold like me. I've recently learned, thanks to Nick F - that a Rex Block was one of the factors behind the recent flooding in Belgium and Germany ..... Europe floods July 2021: What caused them and why people were caught out WWW.NETWEATHER.TV The impacts of the catastrophic flooding during the week across parts of western Germany, eastern Belgium and the Netherlands have been shocking to see. This blog looks at the causes. Through the article I learned that Germany experienced similar bad flooding in 1910, which had me wondering whether the Rex block was a one in a hundred years thing. And that set me dreaming about the Omega block, my long desired Christmas present! I have no idea how often we get one, and I mean one that gives us the dream winter? And every weather phenomenom these days seem to come with a warning that, because of climate change, we're going to see a lot more of it. Any chance climate change will give us more winter Omega blocks?

I guess there were the Pentecost floods back in 1999, but I would imagine they related to melting snow more than a "Rex Block". Do we know if a Rex block was behind the 1910 flooding? I imagine it may be a one in a 100 year event in which case it perhaps isn't the greatest surprise to find it happening around this time. I know the warning always goes out these days that "this may happen more frequently in the future because of climate change" but is there any evidence to suggest that they are actually happening more frequently now from all the years of atmospheric charts we have?

Shades of July finishing in a similar manner to July 1999? That was succeeded by a very thundery August and I wouldn't be surprised if this August ends up similar.....

Nice to see blue skies here today, though the tragic situation in Germany and Belgium makes me wonder why I was ever complaining about it being cloudy. You could be forgiven for thinking this street was part of a Willy Wonka Theme Park if you were unaware of how tragic things were over in Germany at present....

If the problem is going to come in the 2030's does that mean the wobble is preventing us from seeing the real effects of climate change just yet, and it will only be when it's finished its cycle in 9 years that we start seeing it?

I think the argument is that the wobble this time will play havoc with the rising sea levels that climate change will have caused since the time of the last wobble. But although this wobble was first discovered back in 1728, I'm guessing the actual means of measuring it accurately is something new. My gut feeling is that every time scientists have a new way of measuring something, or discover something new about the earth, they associate it with some sort of impending armageddon to bring attention to what they have achieved. I'm sure we were once led to believe the hole in the ozone layer was a man made thing not something that naturally occured! Anyway, I'd really love to know the start and end point of these 18.6 year cycles to gauge whether or not a link to our CETs can be linked to it however loosely!

I must confess I'd never heard of this before.... It's no surprise to see it linked with climate change in order to give it a particularly pessimistic slant. What really interests me however - and which the article itself does nothing to address - is to know where we currently are in this cycle and whether there is a discernible link between our records of weather that go back beyond 1728 and these phases of the moon's journey? This wobble in the moons orbit of earth apparently takes 18.6 years to complete. Does anyone know when the cycles start and end and if there have been any studies linking them with our CET?

I think - for the first 15 days of July - the highest minimum CET recorded for any year is 10.9C (1944 and 1999) and the highest average minimum CET is 14.4C (1947). I'm not totally sure though! Can anyone verify these stats and if they stand up, will 2021 threaten to take over?

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Looks like its heading down to the east of the M11.... we could just miss it here which is ok as I think we've had our share for today!

Been thunder and lightning for the last hour here. Just had a lightning strike that didn't get past the count of one before the thunder. Not too far away there's been an appeal for people with buckets to help out a few houses that are in a bit of a dip in one of the roads

Had thunder and lightning here in east Herts for the last hour or so. There's been a call for people to help out with buckets for some houses in a road nearby which are at the bottom of a dip

Sitting here working from home I suddenly become aware of how dark it had become. Imagining the time to be around half past eight I marvelled at the intensity of my working which had seen several hours pass in the blink of an eye. I was genuinely shocked to see it was in fact only half past four!!

Right....I've seen enough! Definitely booking the week of 19th to the 23rd off and spending it in my garden! St Swithin is coming to the rescue of the British Summer!

Do we need this to get a little more active than it currently is to start pushing the sunny warmth our way......?

I think the consistent warmth in the air is partly what's locked in the consistent moisture in the air! Looks like we might get the Azores high edging in anyway, but I'd like to first see the Atlantic sweep all this away and then for us to start afresh!

A run of consistently nice charts that all coincidentally follow on from St Swithin's Day <crosses fingers>

A friend is staying in the Lake District and sending me pictures of where she is staying......the sky looks a funny kind of colour!! Meanwhile, back here where it's been consistently grey, it's a reminder to me that some parts of the UK are having a decent July so far. And even here where it's been consistently gloomy of late to the degree where I am having to put on the light to start working, it certainly hasn't been that cold....walked back from the pub last night with no need of a jumper. I remember plenty of Julys where that would not be the case. I see there is a prospect of change to something better (for us down here) in the 8-10 day frame..... no change there because that's been a consistent signal for that time-frame without unfortunately coming any nearer. But I'm more hopeful that this time it will come to fruition because of St Swithin's Day. I know it's just folklore, but such folklore usually arises out of weather patterns that are often established, so the timing on this occasion looks promising!

GFS seems to be sparing us on its latest run from the deluge it was showing at one stage for the final on Sunday.......

"it's getting warm, it's getting warm, it's getting, finally getting warm"!

I think I am going to resign myself that the wait for another sub 9C annual mean CET is going to extend beyond this year. The aggregate mean CET for this year so far is 47.4C and there have only been six annual sub 9C CETs that have registered higher than 47C at this stage. That's not to say it's impossible....1813 was 47.3C at this stage and gave us an annual CET of 8.72C, so a repeat of its monthly CETS for this year would do the trick..... I'm not really seeing on the models any indication of July - as disappointing at the outlook may currently seem on them - coming in lower than 16. All months thereafter would need to be in their coldest 20th percentile which is not impossible but extremely unlikely! We've now had four years in the 20th Century that reached the halfway stage with an aggregate mean CET of less than 48C. The others were 2001......was 47.4C and ended up with an annual CET of 9.97C partly thanks to a very warm October 2010.... Was only 45C and had its attempts to rise above an annual CET of 9C scuppered by the exceptionally cold December coming in finally at 8.86C. Thus far it is the only year of this century without a single month breaking into its top ten warmest. This year is currently on track to repeat that, but there is still a long way to go. 2013...... The year of the remarkably cold March meant an aggregate mean CET of only 40.9C had been attained by the end of June. However a strong recovery was made to register 9.61C in the end helped by a warm July, October and December.

Was this the day from which a video went viral, showing a car try to go under a bridge on a flooded road somewhere in London? EDIT: having posted the above I thought I might try google and it seems like it was the right month but wrong day! Moment foolish driver plunges car straight into two metre-deep flood WWW.STANDARD.CO.UK A foolhardy driver was caught on camera plunging his vehicle into two-metre deep water as flash floods hit south London.