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Timmytour

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Timmytour last won the day on January 8 2020

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About Timmytour

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    Morning Glory

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    Broxbourne, Herts
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    Snow snow and snow

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  1. Something I have increasingly had in my head, and even more after this winter I think, is that for us to see a sustained BFTE in all its winter glory, we need to see it exercise its muscle beforehand. I'm becoming more and more convinced this of more importance than an SSW or any background signals! It's often said the winter of 1947 was almost exceptionally mild in mid Jan and then all of a sudden winter came with a vengeance! But it's forgotten the previous December had seen periods of the muscle being flexed. The same was true of the 62/63 winter when prior to the prolonged bout of winte
  2. I honestly think that's a very regular occurrence. I can remember many a winter spent looking at the models and getting excited seeing a big blob of deep blue edge T3 by T3 towards us from the east. It always, but always, stuck rigidly to that Norwegian coast and progressed no further. Eventually I began to accept it not as a harbinger of freezing weather for the UK but instead liking seeing a very old man take his normal seat in a rest hone!
  3. In Dayton, Ohio, monthly mean temperatures for January are 27.5 °F (−2.5 °C). It's currently 50°F (9°C). We can't even trust Dayton, let alone day ten!
  4. There is a lot of pessimism in here, but people should always remember that there was a lot of mild weather around this time of the month in January 1948, and we all know what happened then don't we? That's right....it ended up being the wettest January of the 20th century over England and Wales!! Second half of February bought some chilly snowy weather though.....
  5. We just can't seem to get a consistently cold January or February! Has there ever been another time in UK meteorological history when somebody could look back at the previous ten years and declare the coldest month in all that time was a March?
  6. F fs! I missed the important word "not" out!!! Cheers SB......it should read... hence me going for the 'form horse"
  7. In the last 33 years there have been 19 Decembers with a CET of 5C or greater including the one just gone. Only on one of those previous 18 occasions has the subsequent CET for February exceeded 3.5C Much as I would love it to give us a winter wonderland this year, I'm going for the form horse.. 4.5C and 110mm for me please
  8. I think at least there has been hope this winter and a real sense of potential even if it hasn't materialized to the degree some of us want. Of course in other years that's been the case as well, but it hasn't involved so much stretching of the imagination! One thing I do get is a gut feel that next winter will be more along the lines of the special one we look for. They always seem to follow a 'close.. but no cigar' winter such as this has so far been
  9. Lol I think one of the greatest pictures I've ever seen from the models was not a million miles from that GFSP one in 2010 I think.... the greens and yellows in the Atlantic took the shape of a seagull flying west while looking back east... I think I can see it beginning to take shape there!
  10. Models for this week as showing pretty similar weather to what we had for last week.....rain midweek, snow turning to rain for the weekend. It's "every seventh wave" weather. I find it weird how we do get spells of weather that appear to repeat themselves every seven days....
  11. I would not expect most to have it spot on, near even be close to it, but I suspect bar the odd run, especially the ones showing narnia, the type of weather they predict are not too far off. That said, if our type of weather were the points of a compass, pretty much 340/360 would bring us mild wet weather this time of year. So the models can direct us to the wrong point on a compass, but the look up for it delivers the same result in terms of weather anyway! I see some talking about March holding out hope for us. Just from a historical point of view I can't see this happening. Cold Marches
  12. A new little-publicised feature of GFS this winter is the insertion of a heart within its charts over the UK when there is a 24 hour period about to start which may produce snow. It can be clearly seen here on the T36 of today's 12z run where the favoured spots for snow are those parts of the UK within the heart.....
  13. I think this rings very true. My impression is that the last week has been characterized my an expectation that the models would suddenly flip, but they seem to have remained pretty steadfast and instead been about as consistent and accurate as they've been all winter. Naturally this has coincided with them not for once bringing us bitterly cold weather! I'm conscious however that the accuracy might only relate to the weather we end getting, not why we end up getting it. If the UK was a hour-clock and each pattern was a minute, then 58 of them would give us weather that wasn't bitterly
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