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About Timmytour

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    Morning Glory

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    Broxbourne, Herts
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  1. At 7.8C this comfortably qualifies in the top 10% warmest March months. (currently any March greater of equal to 7.3C) However the conversion rates of such a warm March into Aprils, Mays and Junes which make the their respective top 10% warmest are relatively low. 13% for April and June and 18% for May.
  2. If March makes it to 8.2C , this year will be tracking 1750 very closely! I'll go for a continuance of that at 7.7C for April and to keep it all 7s I'll got for 77mm as well
  3. I'm pretty sure it was February......and January. In fact I'm pretty sure we've been seeing charts like that for ten days away through nearly all of the winter!
  4. Is there a word for a high pressure system that stays in the south Atlantic but extends its influence eastwards so that the winds for the UK are more westerly or north westerly and the chance for any plumes get snuffed out? Thinking it would be a Summer version of a Bartlett. Got a feeling such a set up could end up dominating the early part of our summer... An example of what i mean.....(position wise.....not suggesting this particular set up will stay in place....)
  5. 1999 2003 and 2014 all had 11 monthly CETs which were over the 1961 to 1990 average. that's three in 15 years. 1945, 1949 and 1959, had the same....three in 14 years!
  6. Meteor Explosion in Earth's Atmosphere Is it possible there's a link to the SSW that occurred in December 2018 and this story? .
  7. You are right that I have only taken into consideration the temperature and not sunshine or rainfall. So to that extent I should allowed in my (very amateurish and just for the crack) prediction that the August could either be fine warm weather, or interesting warm weather! Personally, dependent on where and when I'm taking a holiday, a month of thunderstorms might be preferable to a month of hot and sticky weather to me!
  8. I'm well aware of the difficulties of accurately forecasting out weather months in advance thanks. All I did was, for a bit of fun, make a prediction with a bit of rationale behind it. I suppose I too could have made my post a lot shorter by simply stating something along the lines of "I'm thinking this summer will be ok" and not providing any of my reasons for doing so.
  9. Let’s start with a definition of what would make a June, or a July, cold or warm. Basically for the purpose of this thread, it’s whether the month features in either the warmest or the coldest 10% of all the mean CET values for that month since 1659. Everything else is in the “average spectrum” For June, the average spectrum is between 13C and 15.7C. For July the average spectrum sits between 14.7C and 17.7C In the last six summers we've had, five out of the 12 June and Julys (over 40%), have been warm This February has been exceptionally mild, a term I would apply to Februarys with a mean CET of 6.5C or greater. So how do our June and Julys fare when we have had such exceptionally mild February’s in the past? Curiously, after twenty-two such Februarys since 1700, there has only been one warm June, one cold June and three warm Julys. Take away the 18th century and out of 16 such Februarys, there has been just one warm July…and one cold June! All the other June and Julys have been within the average spectrum. The average CETs since 1700 that have followed exceptionally mild Februarys are 14.1C for June and 16.3 for July. (Since 1800 the equivalent figures are 14C and 16.2C) Maybe then it wouldn’t be the boldest prediction to go for June and July to be a little under average this year, since previously they have tended to the lower half of the average spectrum? In terms of summer months of course, that still leaves August. Until 1961, Augusts followed a very similar pattern to Junes and Julys following exceptionally mild Februarys. However, four out of the last five have delivered warm Augusts, including the three hottest ever! So….in conclusion…..I am going for a backloaded summer! An ordinary June and July, temperature slightly under average, with all the good fine warm weather this year coming during the kids’ school holidays!
  10. Thanks Roger. It was the daily max I was thinking of. Wondering how likely it was there were 20c plus temps in those warm Febs between 1867 and 1872
  11. The run of February's between 1867 and 1872 was incredible. The average mean CET was over 6C. That included a year in the middle (1870) which was 2.8C, It's been over 20 years since we had one colder than that! Is it likely there were daily records set then which aren't recognised today? Or would it have been relatively warm all month long without frosts that produced a CETs of 7.5, and two of 6.9C in that period?
  12. Whoops.... * "for the decade 2010 to 2019" that should obviously read!
  13. With no question of February falling below a mean CET of 6C now, attention turns towards December to see if this decade can equal the longstanding record for the most winter months registering a CET of 6C or above. February will make it nine so far for the decade 1730 to 1739 – and with just one winter month to go there is only one chance to equal the record of ten registered in the decade 1730-1739, a record that has stood on its own for nearly three centuries!!
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