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About Timmytour

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    Morning Glory

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    Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow snow and snow

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  1. Some of the snowfall charts take me back to a time in the 70s in Herts when I was desperate for the flurries that we had for about a week to turn into something more significant, but they never did!
  2. In times of absolute despair at an outlook of depressingly mild Atlantic driven mush, I would often see a highly optimistic poster in denial put up a chart from a perb which showed there was still a possibility of Narnia A measure of where we are now is that the polar opposite of such a punter would have a real job to find a chart promoting the opposite perspective!
  3. I've often heard that said but have often wondered how then the bitter cold that places like New York get subject to every now and then seem to be so easily moved aside? Didn't have a max temperature over zero for the 8 days of this year but by the 11th the temps were 12C max and 5C min.
  4. I'm in Ischgl next week so been keeping an eye on the temps forecast there for a while and they've been crashing through the floor lately compared to a week ago. Indicative I think of the way the cold pool is extending which can only be good when it comes to how it impacts the UK in the future
  5. I'd argue not judging by the amount of runs it has had over the years that have showed easterlies that never materialised. This looks like being a superb exception. But the 'failures' I've seen lead me to believe that any bias it may have is not westerly based....
  6. Actually I've seen people refer to Jan 1987 before and this reminds me of it a bit. In Herts we had an inch of snow. I would go into work in London and have to double up on work because some living south of the river couldn't get out of their houses for the amount of snow they had had! (and this is the days when there was no capability to work from home). It felt great to have the synoptics but at the same time disappointing without getting the potential amount of snow associated with them!
  7. People commenting on what the models showing is getting you down? A very disappointing ECM.... the cold gets in far too quickly and would be better being delayed until saturday week. That's what we* need and that would mean we wouldn't miss out on what could be some really unforgettable weather for the UK while we are away for the week . *we = me and a couple of mates who go skiing to Austria this saturday!
  8. While 99% of the time those are wise words JH, to be fair it is a comment on what a model is showing (which makes it stand out a bit at the moment!) And I've never seen such an array of model runs look as close at T96 to what they were showing at T330 in some cases! While t's not something I would have flagged up for the reasons you have put, I don't pretend this chart has any more chance of becoming reality than any other FI chart but it does lead me to ask this question from the many of here who are much more knowledgeable than me..... In these conditions evolving, with "reverse zonality", once the models have got to grip with it, is FI modelling a little easier for them to get right as opposed to all the possibilities that the weather coming from the Atlantic can offer?
  9. Personally the ICON has lost all credibility with me. I was following it avidly as it was one of the first ones to consistently show an easterly coming, but I'm sure one of its runs showed it snowing as early as today. Once I looked out of the window I knew it was a busted flush. I'm leaning more now towards the model showing the cold getting delayed til saturday week. This is because I am away in Austria from saturday for a week and don't want anything significant to happen until I get back. I'd be grateful if anyone could point me in the direction of a model that satisfies my every wish and whim with every single one of its runs.....thank you
  10. I'm off on Saturday to Austria. Three checks of the 10 day weather in 24 hours have shown me no days with snow then 8 days with snow and the latest with just one day of snow!
  11. Let’s imagine February won’t finish below 2.8C Let’s imagine March will. Both very plausible events I would consider, going by the latest models. If that ends up the case, I believe we will be in a unique position from April, never before experienced going back to when records began, whereby the two coldest months we previously experienced were both Marches!
  12. While the models have got a solid enough look about them to trust the inbound cold easterly will arrive, there's enough variances on each run to make nothing certain regarding the extent of snowfall. For example I'm off to Ischgl in Austria on Saturday and constantly checking the 10 day weather. Yesterday it looked like there was more chance of it snowing here than there while I was away. Today shows snow everyday while I'm there! Little shifts back and forth of 50- 200 miles....nothing in the global scale of things but will potentially have big impacts at a local kevel
  13. And yet....for those in the south east...without a single fall of settling snow greater than 1cm. We may yet get one before the end of the month. But can't be too many winter months that come in that much below average without any significant snow in the east?