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About Timmytour

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    Morning Glory

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    Broxbourne, Herts
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    Snow snow and snow

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  1. I was surprised to see the potential for something this relatively a long way off get mentioned on BBC News channel in the pre 10pm slot.
  2. Reads thread. Looks great for cold prospects Goes away for a week Comes back. Reads thread. Looks poor for cold prospects Shrugs shoulders and goes away for another week.....
  3. When hunting for something, it's as important to be told where it definitely isn't as well as where it could be! Nothing specific I see in the models leads me to believe that we are heading for a cold stretch this winter, but the continuing presence of lots of high pressure systems give me cause for optimism. As long as these are not anchored to the usual positions that provide us with the kind of average winters we are to well acquainted with,(and I don't believe they are) I think the chances of them eventually situating themselves in favourable positions is higher than usual, to give us at least a few shots of proper winter if not a sustained period of it. A model run now that doesn't show signs of deep cold is not a problem. If we look to the winter Gods of 62/63 and 1947, we would see that while the former had a November that carried signs of what was to come, the latter was preceded by a November that was part very warm and part wet and stormy. In fact, during November 1946, no air frost was recorded anywhere in the country! In the end what will be will be. Nobody knows for sure and everybody's capable of a lucky guess. I'm hopeful, I'm optimistic but then again I'm seem to be every year about this time!
  4. Feels like there's an 'every 7th wave' thing going on in the south east at the moment. If that wild wet and windy Saturday comes off it'll be the third such saturday in four weeks of otherwise pretty decent weather.
  5. The amount of high pressure modelled to be on or around the UK for the next couple of weeks could be the catalyst for some spectacular autumn colours, especially when set against the background of a blue sky
  6. Timmytour

    Hurricane Oscar

    An early shout for this a late season blast from this one. Based on nothing but;- The name is ominous! Some warmth and unstable air around Cape Verde towards this end of this month could generate another flurry of named storms appearing in the Atlantic such as accompanied Florence last week
  7. Was it one run of the GFS that had a "batten down the hatches" depression crossing the south of the UK for the start of bank holiday weekend a couple of days ago? I'm always intrigued by the way the GFS throws up an apparently rogue run from far out, then comes to revisit it in later runs. Won't surprise me to see weather alerts accompany the start of the bank holiday weekend....and not in a "don't go out in the sun" way!!!
  8. Timmytour

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    If you look through the last month you have to say the ECM has been excellent and maybe is the form horse to follow here. that said, I'm no teleconnections guy but.....
  9. Timmytour

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Off on holiday to Cape Verde in a couple of weeks time. Booked it up as hot weather holiday. Increasingly looks like it might be a holiday from the hot weather! With the Azores high consistently surging up towards us as the models seem to be consistently showing us now, does anyone know if this hinders or helps the developments of Atlantic hurricanes?
  10. Timmytour

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    I've seen this before. Expect the warm/very warm weather to continue to around 19th July. Then it all slips back into a more Atlantic driven pattern with plenty of rain to alleviate any concerns that may have arisen by then about water shortages. This is all part of a well known pattern of weather that often occurs over the UK in the summer. It's known as " It Was Nice Until The Kids Broke Up For School"
  11. Timmytour

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Could do with the Azores high retreating back to where it should be for the month of July. Not looking too good for my holiday in Cape Verde at the moment!
  12. Dammit! Late. 16C and 51mm please
  13. 12.3C and 55mm for me please