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Timmytour

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Timmytour last won the day on January 8

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About Timmytour

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    Morning Glory

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    Broxbourne, Herts
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    Snow snow and snow

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  1. I've just been given a privileged preview of the 0z runs Wow! You won't believe the change! Winter is truly here for the next six weeks On the calendar
  2. Typical Excited Netweather Forum comment in winters 2013/14 to 2018/19..... Typical Excited Netweather Forum comment for the winter of 2019/20....
  3. It gets nowhere near it. But God bless the GFS pub run for giving us a hint of 1947
  4. Interesting only 21 above 7.0 so less than a 20% conversion of the data set into above 7C for the month....indications of colder times ahead?
  5. As a precursor to my theory that 14th January will see a huge shift, a theory for which I have completely ignored the models and any background signals, and relied instead completely on my imagination, note the position of the intense low to the west of the UK here..... GFS goes on to show it barreling through to the north of Scotland, albeit with some energy from it sent further south. After studying my imagination a length, I am convinced that, in fact, nearly all of the energy from this will be taken a lot further south that currently portrayed, and that will prove to be the big game-changer so many of us are seeking. Many might say that my imagination is no substitute for the models. This may be true, but it sure contains a helluva lot more optimism!
  6. Feel free to do it yourself Len. I appreciated Matt's post myself
  7. Bearing in mind the models, this could end up being the first January this century to exceed a mean CET of 7C Remarkable considering the last time it happened was the second time within a six year period that it had occurred. Even more remarkable considering those years in question were 1916 and 1921.... so 99 years ago since it last happened! if. so, I hope the following Feb and March are more like 1916 ( 3.8C and 3.3C) than 1921 (4.8C and 7.4C) !!
  8. I'm still backing my imagination against the models and background signals
  9. If 1947 had access to the same data has this winter, I think a lot of people would have had optimism that such a mild first 2/3 of January could evolve into a cold spell at least. It mustn't be forgotten that there had been cold spells and easterlies in the winter at that point so it was reasonable to assume that another one could come along and even act as a tipping point to change the dynamic. I see no such form in this winter however. The constant theme has been to flatten out the pattern without offering any real hope that it could change. 1946/47 was about trying to start a fire and getting one going a few times before it petered out only to finally get a big sustainable one going. 2019/20 is trying to get optimistic at the sight of a spark over damp starting material.
  10. I mentioned 1947 the other day and it regularly gets trotted out when a winter has been as disappointing as it has been this season. But much I would like to imagine it happens, I think the chances are as remote as they can be. One thing that happened during 1946/47 was periods of cold weather with easterlies. So the weather that winter was following a regular pattern until a tipping point was reached and it flipped into the sustainable easterly we ended up with. For me the default this winter is not one of easterlies but instead has been dominated by any modelled height rises being flattened out before easterlies can get established. Much as next week will see temperatures commensurate with the third week of Januarry 1947, I expect the remainder of January to be more like 2014
  11. I know it's only said in jest, but I can't even comfort myself with the thought of what 1947 ended up being after a very mild middle of January this winter! I wonder if this forum and the models had been had been around back then, when, during the month, the excitement would have commenced ? Fact is, the 1946/47 winter had already produced some cold spells with easterlies, so I suspect there would have been some anticipation that something extreme could happen. And so it turned out.....the door had been banged on so much that it finally gave way. There's no way that's ever going to happen this winter. There's barely the imprint of a knuckle on the door now whereas there were cracks in the door in January 1947. But can you imagine what the forum would have been like as the models began to firm up on the idea of the change that did eventually happen! Happiness in the forum actually followed by real life satisfaction! <Wanted to insert the archive charts from 14/1/1947 and 22/1/1947 here but can't seem to access them!>
  12. I have to say as a cold and snow fan , I've known plenty of winters in recent times which I've regarded as hugely disappointing. Yet even in those winters, consistent promising charts in FI or interesting background signals kept the interest going, even if there was ultimately no end product to them. By contrast this winter is not even providing the fun of non-materialising FI or background signals! Not known anything like this for a long time. But now I live in hope that the lack of modelled opportunities is indicative of a huge flip in the models that will take place soon which starts showing us the Narnia that will start being delivered from 14th Jan. I used to rely on the models for hope. Now I'm relying on my imagination!!
  13. I smile every time I hear people say with self-imposed wisdom "it's too cold for snow!"
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