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About Timmytour

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    Morning Glory

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    Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow snow and snow

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  1. I don't doubt that you are right. I just wonder how it is that, despite what you say, the models in their latter stages seem to find so many solutions that provide us with decent wintry spells in their outlooks, that then fail to materialise to anything like the degree they've been showing us. Is it time to build a factor into our interpretations of what the models show beyond a certain time that allows for a bias in providing the UK with wintry options?
  2. For all the talk of bias in the models, I'm beginning to think there's a bias in them towards giving us winter nirvana in FI. Simply incredibly high ratio of how often those FI charts promise compared to how often they deliver!
  3. If you qualify that statement with "apart from in FI" then I would agree with you! It is amazing how easily the latter reaches of FI seem to locate our dream scenarios, in ways that T96-T144 output seems to find nigh on impossible!
  4. Generally snow falling in March is not going to hang about too long. I did see snow fall in early March 2013 that was still visible some way into April, but that was a legacy of the coldest March for 50 years and I've no doubt, the coldest first 10 days of April for a long long time as well. But that's not the norm and remembering that it can stick around to that degree is like remembering that Winter 1947 didn't start until the last third of January. It's possible to get the same, but highly improbable!
  5. The general rule of thumb is the less cold and less snowy GFS charts are, the more likely it is likely to have been effected by bad data/ lack of data in a certain sector of at a certain time / the US government shutdown
  6. Many a word spoken in in jest and all that, but the coldest month of the the last 8 years was a March. There can't have been too many occasions in UK history, if indeed any at all, with a point in time where it could be said the coldest month in a period of 8 years was a "non winter" month!
  7. I remember a big bust in late December 2012 I think it was. Everything was primed when the ECM came on board for cross model agreement and it all evaporated T48 out! Some 12 days later on there was a decent onset of winter
  8. Could this be the first of a run of good winters for us? Could this be a reason, making it less likely for the PV to be as strong over Canada in future years? https://twitter.com/funmiyiola/status/1083850291261382662
  9. I seemed to get blocked out of the blue by him..... never really knew why....I even set up a netweather thread to see if others had had the same experience!!
  10. Quite reassuring to find I am not the only one Matt Hugo has blocked. I am in some very good company by the look of things! The latest runs look good for the UK. I'm not so sure about my skiing in Austria though! While the far reaches of FI are showing the UK leaving the EU for Narnia, there's an accuweather prediction of St Anton reaching 11C a fortnight today!
  11. I went skiing for the first time in 25 years last year. The guys I was with had been going every year for a good while and persuaded me to go with them to Ischgl. I was surprised when one of the guys said how he wouldn't ski if it was snowing, and explained how he couldn’t cope visually with it. I couldn’t remember experiencing anything like that from my previous times of skiing. But, like you said, must be a thing with old age. We had a nice ski over to Switzerland, a nice lunch, and then a ski back as it started to snow. I couldn’t believe how disorientated I became. Even went crashing into the piste edge at one point, not knowing what the hell had bought me down as I’d assumed I had been in the middle of it!. It hasn’t put me off, as I’m off to St Anton in a few weeks time. But I think if it’s snowing I will put my skis up and relax with a drop of Glühwein instead!
  12. It's not called that now but it appears the hunt rules have remained in place. I wouldn't mind but I'm a huge cheerleader for cold, but one made wiser by my own experiences of rushing headlong into the excitement of "it's on its way" over the years
  13. Think I will avoid the other thread from now. It's not nice to know that members have the right to call you a troll simply for pointing out that all projected cold spells do not always actually end up in cold spells, in response to their suggestion that all cold spells have their blips on the countdown to certain delivery! I can quite understand why even renowned posters of old not longer care to contribute to it.
  14. As we wait for the 12zs to roll out I think it's as well to remember that the PV being shot to pieces still does not guarantee those pieces falling how we need them to fall to guarantee us anything in the form of snow let alone cold. Not even with apparently good model agreement for ten days time. It's a time to get excited, but also to remain a little wary nonetheless....
  15. Neither is it unknown to see a mild spell, after a cold spell has been counted down from day 10+ to 2....