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About Timmytour

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    Morning Glory

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    Broxbourne, Herts
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    Snow snow and snow

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  1. Was it one run of the GFS that had a "batten down the hatches" depression crossing the south of the UK for the start of bank holiday weekend a couple of days ago? I'm always intrigued by the way the GFS throws up an apparently rogue run from far out, then comes to revisit it in later runs. Won't surprise me to see weather alerts accompany the start of the bank holiday weekend....and not in a "don't go out in the sun" way!!!
  2. If you look through the last month you have to say the ECM has been excellent and maybe is the form horse to follow here. that said, I'm no teleconnections guy but.....
  3. Off on holiday to Cape Verde in a couple of weeks time. Booked it up as hot weather holiday. Increasingly looks like it might be a holiday from the hot weather! With the Azores high consistently surging up towards us as the models seem to be consistently showing us now, does anyone know if this hinders or helps the developments of Atlantic hurricanes?
  4. I've seen this before. Expect the warm/very warm weather to continue to around 19th July. Then it all slips back into a more Atlantic driven pattern with plenty of rain to alleviate any concerns that may have arisen by then about water shortages. This is all part of a well known pattern of weather that often occurs over the UK in the summer. It's known as " It Was Nice Until The Kids Broke Up For School"
  5. Could do with the Azores high retreating back to where it should be for the month of July. Not looking too good for my holiday in Cape Verde at the moment!
  6. Dammit! Late. 16C and 51mm please
  7. 12.3C and 55mm for me please
  8. Right....the models are within the reliable timeframe now for some serious warmth. I have to say not to my liking as the last thing I want on my waik to the station each morning is to feel too warm and sticky in my suit, followed by a warm train journey (They surely won't turn off the heating for another few weeks!) The time to buy a fan is now, before the rush comes! I wonder if we will see a return to colder arctic air after this week as some model runs have hinted at? Would remind me of early May 1997 where days of scorchers were soon followed by a bank holiday weekend which featured snow!
  9. As well as the infamous "your kids won't know snow" prediction which seemed reasonable for a few years until it was blown out of the water from the winters of 2008-09 onwards, I also remember lots of "Spring is arriving earlier and earlier" reports in the early years of the noughties. Having had an extremely cold start to March, the models are now showing us an immediate potential for a very cold middle march and some potential for a cold end to March. Considering this is all happening within five years of experiencing the coldest march for 50 years, i wonder if this will be another readjustment to the thinking of what the consequences of climate change will be?
  10. i saw exceptional snow in March 2013 that wasn't gone completely from the ground until the end of the second week in April
  11. Love this thread and your running commentary Knocker. Thank you your observations are much appreciated
  12. Hoping the models are pointing us in the direction of not so much a March 2013 but a March 1962, a harbinger of a winter to come!
  13. February brought an end to a run of 58 successive months with a CET greater than or equal to 4C. This equalled the previous record for such a run which the December of 1977 bought to an end
  14. Five winters have passed now since a month recorded a lower CET than March 2013, which was the coldest monthly CET of that year. This is new territory. Of the previous 9 times March was the coldest month of the year, on six occasions the following winter gave us a colder month, and on two occasions we had to wait until the second winter for a colder month. The longest run before our current one of 5 years "not out" was following the March of 1883 when it was not until 3 years later in February 1886 that a month recorded a lower CET.
  15. In my experience Frosty tends to comment on what the models are showing. Not so long ago they were showing it going on for another week at least. I really don't see the problem?