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About Timmytour

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    Morning Glory

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    Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow snow and snow

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  1. Going to sleep seeing GFS getting on board the polar express. Waking up to find the others considering getting off? It's standard fare. Within a couple of days we could go from models hinting at Omega to Bartlett! I dream it won't happen. Except in my nightmares!
  2. Will the models soon be giving us a glimpse of an OMeGa block I wonder!!
  3. All looking very promising at the moment. But I guess many of us have been around long enough to have experienced times when we wait for one model to get on board, only to find out that when it does, it all goes Pete Tong on the following days runs! So many of you guys deliver analysis on the model runs that are brilliant....and I mean from both perspectives...squirrel fans or not squirrel fans! One I've not seen lately that I respect greatly is Teits. I seem to recall him playing down, rightly as it turned out, the significance of great looking runs last year. Would be interesting to get his views on what the models are throwing out lately.
  4. I always dread coming to the model thread when things are looking good for cold and seeing the Model Moans, Ramps and Banter thread has been more recently posted on than the main discussion thread! So shame on you two for temporarily making me get ready to eject toys from my pram!!! Mind you....this post won't help will it.............
  5. My phrase ""of course will all know the <choose appropriate model> has a particular bias towards <choose a shown outcome>
  6. But that's why there's as much gloom about now as there was excitement 2 days ago. It's a question that's as valid when the excitement's around as when the gloom is.....
  7. For me it's hard to have confidence in the GFS when it's not maintaining consistency within the early part of its own runs, no matter about the broad consistency of where the last three end up. I feel disappointment in the air regarding the rest of this month, but encouragement going forward into winter. We surely can't get a complete winter of promising models with nothing delivered can we...not twice in a row surely! Mention is often made of winters past which have been magical very often begining with models alternating between the freezer and mild mush, perhaps understandable because of our position. However.....what about Bartlett dominated winters? How soon do they become apparent? Would seeing charts like this in November 1988 for example have caused great excitement among those hoping for a cold winter? Of was it already clear then what was going to be the outcome I refuse to get my hopes up this time...I will keep my feet on the ground....but I'll despair if we turn out to have a similar outcome!!!
  8. Only one way it can go from here.... GFS 0z only slight backtrack Ecm 0z major shift to Gfs GFS 6z looks like ECM 12z Repeat ad nauseum....
  9. But hoping for things has absolutely no bearing on whether or not they come to pass. So what you say is completely irrelevant.
  10. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    7.7C for me please.... seems to be a popular November CET following an October CET of 12C or above...
  11. The Mount Agung volcano in Indonesia could hold the key. It last started erupting in 1963 more or less coinciding with the ending of one of our greatest winters. There's been a lot of speculation that it's about to erupt again. But this is using measurements that were not possible at this time in 1962. so what if, in actual fact, exactly the same conditions existed in 1962 at this time of year? The pressures that are building up might have an influence on the world's weather, and turn our winter into an absolute freezing snowfest ...all ready for the volcano to burst into life come March 2018 and once again signal an end to one of thre greatest. As longshots go, this is one of the longest.....but anything that generates hope!!
  12. haha not really. The idea is to speculate without it being taken as serious comment! So many of us wish a winter to compare, it's a good place you put things that make you hope for it, without the inevitable archive charts from November 1962 posted up in the model thread that allude to a similar existing set up! Actually i can find optimisim anywhere. Beng's post fills me with hope. Maybe we've been so busy looking for similarities that have never, in the end paid off, that it will turn out to be the actual oppositie that delivers the goods!!
  13. That's what I like to see!! :-) Seriously if I look back 10 years ago I'd be thinking the infamous "your kids won't know snow" article from 2000 was pretty spot on. But as others have pointed out since then I've seen the coldest March in 50 years, the coldest December in over a 100 years, times when we've been told to go home from work before the snow got too bad and s time when my kids were stranded in Ireland because snow closed the airports in the UK. Granted the last four years have been very poor, but within the last ten there have been winter experiences new, such as part of the River Lea freezing over. Moreover my kids now know the magic of snow, something that once upon a time they only heard about from my memories. So optimism rules my heart. I think if every 10 day chart from last winter proved accurate, it would have been fantastic. I never let the disappointment of probable reality completely vanquish my feeling of joy when hopes and expectations soared. It will happen again. It's just a case of recognising the clues to predict when it does
  14. Ok....time to resurrect this thread for this year! Obviously neither football nor snow in Tokyo were good indicators of the way it was pointing last year!!! Early signs for this winter......looking at the hurricane en route to Ireland. And then going back to look at 1961 when Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland. Now 1961-62 wasn't obviously 1962/63, but it did have some cold snaps and decent snowfalls during it. And one of the coldest ever Marchs! There was in particular a nice build up to the New Year So I'm looking for it to travel up north and start bringing the cold down upon us in its wake and creating the beginnings of a a constant susceptibility to northerly incursions throughout the season. Then next winter the goodies really get delivered
  15. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Am I too late? 9.2c for me if not please