nbj2013
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Posts posted by nbj2013
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looks like my 14.9C prediction at the end of last month is way off. We started the month with a really nice warm and sunny spell, so I think everyone had high hopes for a real warm - or even hot - month.
But as per usual, it quickly went downhill and never got back up (well - to a degree? I suppose it hasn't been too bad)
As for July, well I think it may just break this trend and we could see our first above average month for a long while - although I said that about last month, and the month before - so I think my predictions are more of what I would 'like' as apposed to what is more likely to happen.
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im guessing this was 'weatherview' - the extended weather outlook for the week ahead usually shown late in the night/ early hours. Yes, it would be nice to have bbc weather forecasts lasting a bit longer, with graphics showing the jet streams movements for the next 5 days or so along with the high/low pressure movements.
But as for itv weather - well, what a load of crap. It lasts all of 30 seconds, only covers that day and at best, the next, and the graphics really need updating - im surprised they haven't still got those symbols that they can stick on a board with a map of the uk on and just pull them off again when the day changes!
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Today in Penzance, Cornwall.
Started overcast pre 7am, before intense thunderstorm lasting 20-30mins between 7.30 and 8.00 am. Locally torrential rain (a friends station less than a mile away recorded 27mm of rain in 24mins) causing localised flash flooding, as well as 13 rumbles of thunder and 18 flashed of visable lightning I recorded - was without power for several hours as transformers were affected in Redruth.
Dry, but still overcast, with generally light winds up until 11.00am, when clouds began to break up. By 12pm, clear blue summer sunshine without a cloud and light winds for the remainder of the day, although a bit of a breeze picked up from about 5pm. Maximum temp was 18.7C at around 3.15pm.
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Sorry, but could I change mine from 14.2C, which I predicted last week to 14.7C please - as things are looking up!
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This is my first attempt at a monthly CET forecast on here, and I think i'll go for 14.2c with below average rainfall (60-80%) and around average sunshine (90-110%)
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I said at the start f the month that " i'm expecting something closer to 10C, with a cooler theme from mid-may onwards" and looking at things, I doubt it will be any better than 10.5, only the cooler theme has begun a week or so later than originally expected.
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I have my bedroom window open ALL year round in ALL weathers. I had the window open during the December 2010 snowfall. I had it open all Winter/Spring just past. I also have it open when its blowing a severe gale, lashing with rain and even clapping thunder. I just love the cool air.
In the summer I sleep on the bed (not in) and have the window wide open - so the room temp it pretty much the same as it is outdoors (well probs a degree higher)
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It looks like the next few days will be overcast/bright with high humidity, then sunshine in the West mid-week (with modest warmth) before cooler air floods down from the North by Thursday.
Although it doesnt look as if it going the get extremely cold for late May (maximums below 6C), it will certainly feel cooler - with overnight frosts in shelter and even snow flakes to the highest of ground in Scotland!
Looking ahead to Bank Hol Monday - it looks as if high pressure will build from the Azores, bringing the best of the weather to the South and West of England
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Even if it isn't heatwave conditions it would be more than acceptable to have lets say 18 to 23c with ample sunshine given the time of year that would feel very nice not too hot for those who hate the heat but not too cold so you can't get outside
Yes Gavin, i agree. Although I love the heat, and 30C + would be great, at this time of year with the sun so strong - temps in the high teens to low 20C would feel very very warm indeed. It would be decent weather for gardeners to get out there, for summer evening walks and for trips to the beach. But we do also need SOME rain - which id rather fall in the night in the form of thunderstorms.
Oh, and that really annoying wind - which seems to blow none stop from whatever direction - could ease off too - then the sun can really get to work!
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Very muggy and humid out there today. High level cloud and brightness, but no blue skies. Away from the breeze, it almost feels sticky. Id love to see some thundery action down here this evening, but it looks like Scotland have taken them! Come to think of it, dont think the far west of Cornwall have seen a good proper thunderSTORM for over 2 years now
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I know there is a thread for Summer 2013, covering the wider season for June, July and August, but I thought i'd start another thread covering the coming weeks heading towards June and more importantly, initial trends and patterns for June.
It looks as though the East-West split will continue into next week, and possibly for a week or two more in June. South-Western areas look like having the driest, sunniest and 'warmest' of the weather (for a change, I live in Cornwall so that sounds great) while Eastern and South-Eastern areas could see wetter and somewhat cooler condition.
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Sadly stuck in the library revising today but it's a glorious day with strong sunshine making things warm. Very few clouds too. Shame I can't be out in it but looking hopeful for now that the drier weather in the far SW may last to Friday and beyond
It looks as if it will cool down a little by Thursday, maximum of 13C. But Sunday to Wednesday looks good, possibly 16-18C in any sunshine. Weekend still a long shot but my moneys on 'settled' rather than unsettled - but not all that warm.
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Well Falmouth enjoyed a lovely sunny day in the end. Sure, some convective cloud but dry and fairly warm with light winds. Looks like my weather watch on my website was fairly accurate today with the Lizard and the far west of Cornwall escaping the storms.
yes, the far west of Cornwall pretty much escaped all of those nasty (and interesting) storm showers. I was in St Ives for the day and the morning was wonderful, and in that strong sun under blue skies (and light winds) it felt like 22C. There was a very short burst of rain for a time, but the sun came out again shortly after. Possibly, one of the best days of the year so far in my opinion - in terms of warmth (well mainly the suns strength).
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I expected this month to go downhill mid way through, which for May, is pretty unusual. May is quite often the best month of the year, especially the latter part. But as usual, averages and 'should be's' are thrown out the window. Welcome to the 21st Century!
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1996 was the last May here to come in with a mean temperature below the 1971-2000 average. Of all calendar months this is by far the longest run without a below average one. You would think by the law of averages that we are long overdue a cold May but then again I said the same thing last year, and in 2011.
2012 looked as though it would manage to break the run but then we had the fine and very warm spell in the last 10 days which scuppered that idea.
Well, lets hope the trend continues. Although I like weather and temperature extremes and records, I don't think I can stand another colder than average month!
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Overcast skies with bright/sunny spells.
Light breeze, gusts <20mph.
Mild start at 10.1C, temps risen less than yesterday due to less sunshine, currently at 12.9C. Todays max is 13.1C just after 1:30pm
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Well we come upon the same charts every year giving out the same differing responses, so we're probably no closer to knowing what the outcome is this summer... however as pessimistic as it sounds, with the last few summers, I've learnt that you should expect the worst and salvage what positivity you can out of the situation. I therefore, until we get a decent string of average summers, expect a cool wet summer in general. Not very scientific, but as of yet, not being proved wrong, as the pattern of dry Springs and presumably cool, wet summers is set to continue.. as there is no real evidence as yet pointing to the contrary. (if something hasn't changed then why change an opinion on it?_
id like, really like, to say 'your wrong!', but i think your exactly right there. Expect the worst overall and make the most of the decent few days we get in a cool-wet-and probably windy summer ahead. Looking back over recent years, the best change of settled conditions seem to be appearing through spring - and sometimes, just sometimes, very late in the summer or very early in autumn (late sept - early oct). Having said that, i hope were both way off the mark and we have a 2003 style summer!
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It must be remembered though that May has not had a particularly cold second to the month since at least 1996 so it will be remarkable if we do get one.
yes, well all we can do is hope it will be an above-average May (in terms of temps), and not just a 'warmish' first half and than a less impressive end - which would average the month off as useable but not amazing, which we are now long overdue. The last lengthy (as in a week or so, thats what it has come too now) warm, dry and sunny spell we have had here in Cornwall was at the end of March last year! Temps topped 20C - even in the far west - and i dont think they have done since then.
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it would be great to see anything over 12.5C, but i'm expecting something closer to 10C, with a cooler theme from mid-may onwards (i hope im wrong though)
July 2013 CET Forecasts / Competition
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Sorry im a day late.
I'll go for an above average 16.7C with well below average rainfall in the south (50-60%) and below average rain in the north (80-90%). I also reckon sunshine hours will be above average or well above average (somewhere between 110-140%)
Overall, I think the first half will be pleasantly warm or very warm, with one or two bursts of 30C heat in the S and SE. Id also expect lots of sunshine - possibly wall to wall for a time - and little rain (a little possible in N and NW) Then around the middle of the month, something a little cooler (still around average though, warm in the sun) with more cloud and patchy rain. Then i'd say there is a good chance of more above or well above average warmth nearer the final week of the month, and again less rain.
I think this month will be a dry one for the gardens, so hose's and cans at the ready