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phil nw.

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Everything posted by phil nw.

  1. The persistence of Atlantic low pressure just to the west continues to push bands of rain and showers across the UK according to the 12zgfs.Just like a washing machine we seem to be on an extended wash cycle. The image shows the accumulated precipitation expected by day 7. i guess we will see the occasional glimpse of the sun over this period taking in Easter but really it is a poor overall picture where the need for the brolly or raincoat will be necessary pretty much every day. The southerly extent of the trough is quite notable with downpours and low pressure also heading for Iberia and some unsettled conditions even affecting the Canary Islands at times. I think we are all eager for a pattern change but it is difficult to be too hopeful currently.We need the jet pushing north under rising Iberian or Azores heights but nothing on the model horizon showing as yet.
  2. The low pressure dominated outlook through to and beyond Easter extends to much of western Europe including Iberia and even as far south as the Canary islands and Morocco at times. Quite remarkable how far south the Greenland centered block has diverted the Atlantic storm track with colder air plunging so far south instigating those unsettled conditions.
  3. Good to see a change from this chilly feeling and damp easterly setup as by Tuesday we are all into the milder south westerlies as the Iberian ridging shows it's hand -the change well established by mid-week. Looking further on gfs to day 8 continues with this so although the pv is gradually shrinking,it's still back to business on our side of the pole with a return to our usual Atlantic pattern. Probably it's still too early to see the effect of the spv reversal lower down.I am not wishing a poor Spring by any means but it wouldn't surprise me to see northern blocking become a feature in charts before March is out. CFS for April height anomalies suggest anomalies over Greenland with Atlantic troughing underneath.
  4. Growing up in the 1950s and 60s I was used to more frequent snow and frosts and almost took cold spells as expected events back then. Yes we still had the usual Atlantic weather but it was more bearable then because of the cold interludes. Gradually over recent decades the warming trend has eroded anticipation of our so called Winters now. I have my memories of some great Winters including of course the daddy,1962/3. It is such a shame that the joys of a crisp Winter landscape under a snowy blanket have become almost a rarety now.
  5. Jff T192 ECM Shows there is still very cold air to be had from the NE ,it just needs everything to fall right for us to get it.
  6. ANYWEATHER Not sure what difference to day 5 you refer to AW. Both have similar European pattern?
  7. UKMO T72 The day where the Atlantic is halted and the Scandinavian high is starting to push back. Comparing yesterdays UK 12z the cold pools are less deep approaching the UK as the high orientates more south to north by day 5 It looks like a couple of drier days before the Atlantic lows try to make inroads from the south west as the blocking fades.
  8. A lovely early Spring morning for my walk. Crisp and sunny and I can feel a bit of warmth in that sun now. Plenty of lying water though with the little brook in the fields to our rear flowing swiftly.
  9. We can see that quite early on there is disagreement wrt the orientation of a Scandinavian high.This will influence the chance of any deeper cold pools coming this way. UKMO looks the best for that in the coming week with a visit of -8c uppers from day 5 across the uk with a chance of some snowfall. Chasing these cold pools is always liable to disappointment as a small shift in the pattern will change these at short notice.Still it looks the better outlook for coldies currently as the cold feed is quite a decent fetch from around the high from northern Scandinavia/Russia,the coldest source. On the other models the main thrust of cold heads down into Europe further east in week 1 until we see signs of retrogression in week 2 .ECM by day 10 bringing a cold north easterly--possible as the pv continues to weaken but as we know it's day 10 again. We will have to see if the uk model is on it's own with the colder outlook next week but after this i will be hoping for some brighter and drier weather with a bit of a warmup.
  10. Cloud 10 Yes just about the best solution for the coldest out come now. The heights around Iceland there rather than Scandinavia. We can see those uppers remain less modified by the shorter sea track from Norway.
  11. I think any easterly would need to hold for a number of days to see any meaningful cold pool from the east. We have to remember Eastern Europe is currently Anomalously warm so we would need a long fetch airstream from Russia and it's asking a lot this time of year to get a snowy setup . We need the high to be oriented west to east and this is something yet to be established in the model runs. Our best bet now would be a high towards Iceland or Greenland with a north easterly Continental Arctic sourced flow down through Scandinavia. It's worth sticking with the next few model runs to see what transpires but I think we are in the last chance saloon now for coldies to see any chance of widespread lying snow.
  12. A pattern often seen in early Spring where we start to see blocking appearing further north as the vortex weakens. On this occasion a decent Scandinavian high looks quite possible but not oriented favourably to get the cold from further east. We need the cut back of the jet under the block for anything of cold interest especially this late in the season. As it is we may end up with a milder south east or southerly flow with the UK in between the block and the Atlantic.
  13. Models continue to show a slow moving pattern with further lows dropping in from the north west keeping us rather cold and unsettled. The next attack from the nw showing for Thursday/Friday brings some lower uppers with the rain but any snowfall seems limited to higher levels now, The UK trough continues to be modeled as an ongoing feature,trapped between heights to the east and west. minus10 Yes It seems we are stuck in a rut with this pattern.
  14. Starting to think that this next strat warming could end up with it being the final one. The slow rate of downwelling of the negative zonal winds look like taking us well into March. With the return of the sun across the pole it seems unlikely that much if any recovery of the strat.vortex will occur by then.
  15. bluearmy Yes it's a case of what Iberian ridge Nick. A colder north westerly pattern building up by the looks.Atlantic trough digging deep into Europe and touching N.Africa and the jet well south. The Azores high squeezed south and west.
  16. UKMO view t120 Similar outlook to GFS, as expected, very unsettled through next week with deep lows across the north and a displaced Azores high.Further systems look like heading in from the north Atlantic around the the high as we go further forward.
  17. GFS showing a noticeable change from midweek as we see the jet strengthening and powering towards us. Increasingly unsettled and wet as bands of rain and blustery showers head in.As if we haven't seen enough this month. Becoming colder too as polar maritime air sweeps in from the north west so as already mentioned snowfall likely to be seen at higher levels by the end of the week. A big difference to the feel of things after this prolonged mild period.
  18. Just on one other aspect. If ever a winter underlined the need to treat any models beyond days 4/5 with caution this was it. I can't remember the number of occasions when broad scale medium term pattern forecasts have changed after promising looking cold set ups quickly disappeared as we got closer. This was not just the operational runs as whole ensemble suites got watered down. A season of big disappointments for cold lovers which I think has made many more of us more sceptical when cold chasing next year.
  19. bluearmy It's been a strange season wrt trusting any strat.forecasts and the nwp projections from them. Zonal wind forecasts have been widely variable.We have had instances when we have dipped below 0m/s but they been very brief. We have been running with a weaker than normal vortex for much of Winter but never really benefited. I can only conclude that the warmings have not been sufficient to impinge on the trop.pattern.No real split in the spv but plenty of displacements which just haven't worked for us. Back to now it would be sods law that March could well deliver Arctic blocking as the vortex naturally begins to warm anyway. It wouldn't be too much of a surprise to many of us to see the best cold charts since early December appear before next month is out.
  20. A very unsettled and sometimes stormy outlook to come. More deep lows and rain on the way up to month end as the jet strengthens again.This fired up by another surge of cold coming around the pole and down into the Canadian maritimes next week It looks like a colder spell too with systems approaching from the north west so a change from the current tropical maritime air to polar maritime as the storm track is diverted by the regressing Azores high. As usual though away from favoured locations the Atlantic will limit the possibilities of lying snow through the modification of the surface layers. We really need to see a direct Arctic flow from the north to bring more snow chances but we lack sufficient ridging out in the Atlantic to get a long fetch Northerly. It's promising to be another disappointment to end this Winter unfortunately.
  21. GEfs certainly going colder .These for Warks. A pattern we see have seen many times at longer range in a mobile Atlantic setup but without Arctic heights., although not so much this Winter. Chances of some seeing snowfall if this verifies for sure but i am always wary of it counting down as it is ridging from an Azores high rather than blocking further north.Will it be solid enough to get a really good Arctic outbreak or as we get closer ?It often happens, the 850s modify nearer time as gfs flattens the pattern somewhat. Really this pattern relies a lot on the angle of the jet driving troughing far enough south at a good enough angle. rather than from any Arctic blocking. Let's hope we can get something from this to finish Winter off on a better note.
  22. bluearmy The mean ridging behind as the trough heads towards Scandinavia could bring the colder air south. It is whether the high can gain enough latitude to bring something decent ,it seems our only route to a final Winter's hurrah by the looks.
  23. Yes it's quite startling how warm this month looks like turning out despite the +ve height anomalies across the polar field. Todays Euro view and the 850 anomalies to day 10. The cold air well away from us and much of Europe. The Atlantic influence continues until week 2 with just the odd ridge being flattened quickly in the mobility. It's not really until beyond day 10 when we see gefs showing stronger Atlantic ridging along side a Scandinavian trough develop with colder air moving south across the UK. This period at the end of the month may give us one last shot of Winter but can we have confidence that this will happen after all the let downs? I guess it's worth hanging in there for a bit longer whilst these ensembles show ,even though they are at range ,but it certainly has been a battle to maintain some Wintery interest as we approach the tail end of the season.
  24. I share the frustrations. We are heading for a notable -AO indicating an even weaker pv but still we can't get the cold here. The Atlantic pattern still remains unfavorable with the influential ridging again from the sub tropical/Iberian area often thwarting the southerly extent of cold. I can't remember a Winter with so many obstacles that seem to crop up from promising background signals.
  25. There looks to be an ongoing trend to ridge heights later in week 2 but as yet no sign of troughing getting underneath.
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