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phil nw.

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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

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About phil nw.

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 .
    Summer 2011 in July.
    We cruised from Tilbury across the north sea to Norway where we sailed up the coast taking in some ports of call ,These took in some wonderful scenery in the fjords and trips up the mountains.We continued to north cape and then on into the Arctic ocean past bear island and onto the Svalbard islands where we came across part of the polar ice pack.This actually chocked up the inlet to Longyearbyen where we were due to visit.

    It was disappointing that we had to rejig the rest of the schedule but it was amazing to be on deck surrounded by ice flows which had walruses and seals on them.With a clear blue sky and a temp.of 4c it was calm and clear.We had reached the most northerly point of our cruise at 79N.
    Not forgetting experiencing 24hrs day light and the midnight sun!

    We then detoured to the Faeroes which was an alternative to spending the time we couldn't have around Svalbard.
    It turned out to be an enjoyable time.Green islands with high dramatic cliffs as you approached.Trips around the main island reminded me very much of northern Scotland with it's wild moorland and wild flowers and mountain streams.
    March 2013
    A Winter cruise this time,at least it was in Scandinavia, as again we left Tilbury for Norway and another journey taking the fjords and different ports including Thromso.
    This time it was a white landscape all the way north as we crossed the Arctic circle for the second time in less than 3 years.
    We had some enjoyable land excursions sight seeing including the Arctic cathedral in Thromso.Of course the highlight was seeing the northern lights up there.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.

  • Weather Preferences
    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. The ECM also showing some hope of better conditions going into the last week of May. Low heights to our north west at day 7 on the op with the Atlantic ridge starting to push the jet further north as it leaves the American seaboard.By day 10 the mean anomalies supporting some higher pressure ridging ne across the UK. Hopefully we can see this develop into our Summer friend the Azores high visiting us bringing more settled and warmer weather.
  2. Looking through the next week or so on the 06z GFS and there are still no signs of any settled and warmer conditions. T144 Another northerly showing up sourced from way north as Atlantic ridging stays out west with a trough over Scandinavia. On a brighter note the operational run looks to be on the cold side of the ens.graph for Warks.as we head into the last week of May. Hopefully a better end to Spring and some welcome warmth as we approach the first month of Summer.We have certainly waited long enough for it.
  3. After so many weeks of cold north/north easterly flows some tentative signs from ecm at t144 that we may see some warmer air from further south. Not yet settled though with rain set to move in from the Atlantic but the higher temps along with the rainfall should speed up Spring growth after being held back somewhat.
  4. Current chill from the west being replaced by a chill from the east as a high builds next week and sits just to our west ridging towards Scandinavia. A cold ne wind setting up with -5c uppers spreading west across the n.sea.Max's down to mid-single figures for many so a switch to warmer weather weather is still on hold by the looks of it.
  5. Yes Karl some promise of a drier period after the unsettled spell but the main focus this coming week continues to be a wet and windy period especially around Tuesday to Thursday as a strong jet heads this way. Jet stream chart and the fax for Weds. 12z shows the general picture. Quite cold air sourced from Greenland follows for the end of the week with a brisk westerly showery flow after the low passes. Plenty of snow showers higher up over Scotland and perhaps over higher ground further south.Temperatures back down again to single figures after a brief milder inter
  6. After being under strength for much of Winter the polar vortex is bouncing back with a steady increase in zonal winds. Temperatures in the Stratosphere at 60n and 10hPa have plunged recently. No surprise that a period of unsettled weather in a mobile Atlantic driven pattern from early next week is the outlook in the charts. A quite different picture now with the demise of northern blocking and those purple colours at 500hPa returning to the Greenland area.
  7. UKMO T120 shows the UK seeing the edge of a cold plunge of Arctic air.The main thrust of this over Scandinavia and W.Russia who seem to have had quite a lot of bitter cold in the second half of their Winter.A sharp contrast to the early season warmth caused by the Euro ridging back then. For us a cooling trend later next week under the high with some sharp frosts but a lot of dry weather continuing through next weekend.Then signs of a change to a less settled outlook the following week. T144 signs of the westerlies returning as the high starts to sink and decli
  8. Quite a lengthy dry period as we end Winter and go into March looking at the models. High pressure dominating and many of us continue to see some lovely sunny days but frosts around at night.The fly in the ointment could be cloud spreading in from the north sea at times where we pick up an easterly flow. The high pressure ridging towards Iceland briefly so colder air is drawn from Scandinavia at the end of the week. This may give some wintry showers towards the ne and daytime temperatures down to mid-low single figures for many.So a short cold snap by the looks but not
  9. I expected a a 2 or 3 day cold snap based on previous ens guidance. That ecm mean output though has raised an eyebrow suggesting something more prolonged.
  10. Well i have already had enough of this gloomy and sometimes wet Atlantic stuff and we have it for a few more days it seems. Next Tuesday's fax shows we have just rid ourselves of this weekend's low with it's fronts as they swept north into the Norwegian sea.The story continues though as yet another low comes in,all within the deep extended trough which has dug as far south as the Canaries. Signs that a ridge developing in the w.Atlantic following that mid-week system is what the models expect to build into a high by the end of the week. Hopefully that will settle
  11. Yes they all still support a high but surface conditions would be clearer and colder later in week 2 on the //.The high being just that bit further north.
  12. Irrc it will be on board mid-March as the operational run. The better ridging on the // run bringing colder air in as the high establishes.It is within the ens envelop up to day 10.It's whether anything can develop from that.
  13. Yes Griff the parallel is more amplified.it's only one instance but i wonder if this will continue to show up the flattening bias of the current gfs as it beds in.
  14. A rise in pressure and something drier for the UK still looks the most likely but it looks like another week or so of westerlies to endure first. The 2 mean charts at day 8 Whether this can evolve into anything cold from a Scandi.high remains outside the reliable really.Like the 18z gfs last night we see the odd operational run throw out this evolution but without support in the ensembles or the following 00z runs. There are still signs in the ens. of some modest ridging of hts towards the ne in the anomalies.I wouldn't write it off whilst we see that.This would be a setup
  15. Yes ecm follows a similar path to the gfs and shows the high.It ridges ne from the second ridging attempt around day 7.We can see that on the gefs ens pressure diagram as well, The gfs op and ecm are both therefore backed up in these ens for a UK high developing but a little progressive for a Scandi.high. A look at the S.Norway pressure ens.indicate this although there is a wide spread of pressure members and many do show some rising pressure up there. There are certainly signs of increasing ht anomalies building ne from day 10 so we will have to see if future runs add mileage
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