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phil nw.

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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

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About phil nw.

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 when we saw the northern lights.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. An interesting battle is now underway between the growing Greenland vortex and the Azores high continuing to try and ridge ne. The 00z ECM at day 3 and then 7 illustrating the see-saw battle The situation being complicated by the appearance of ex tropical lows heading across the Atlantic.Still plenty of warmth to be had further south and over the continent but countered with those developments to the north west ahead of cooler air affecting particularly the nw of the UK at times.
  2. A lot of credit should go to this Indian attack. They have bowled accurately all day. They are now reaping the rewards from late swing and the new ball.
  3. No surprises really. Would think they will recall Pope maybe at the expense of Rashid this time. They are all likely to be selected for the Winter tests now I would expect. Additions could include the likes of Burns and Denley for batting and perhaps another seamer.
  4. Good luck and best wishes to Cook. He has a fine record and now is the right time to step away.
  5. Well after the weeks of Summer warmth we are seeing a change to cooler fresher Atlantic air and it does now look less likely that we see a rerun of those recent high temperatures after this Polar Maritime incursion. I think the influence from the Icelandic trough will be enough,after the initial breakdown,to just limit the Azores ridging and keep us in more typical gentle westerly flow heading into September. Days 5 and 10 ECM mean 500hPa charts and last night's Noaa anomalies A look at the London ens graph for temp/rainfall shows temperatures closer to normal in the coming 10 days with maximums around 21C more likely than the recent 25C+ although after the more unsettled blip in the next few days a return to quite dry weather looks likely especially further south and east.In this pattern as ever the far North west will be prone to more interruptions to settled conditions. Certainly not a bad outlook as we start Autumn.
  6. Interesting looking at the 06z GFS charts at T30hrs to see the distribution of heat going right up to N.Cape(Norway) at around 70N suggesting surface readings in the 20's C even right up there. We can see the temperature contrast either side of the jetstream as it heads up the Norwegian coast line. Plenty of red colours around the hemisphere with only Greenland standing out as the island of blue. That Atlantic trough seems an almost stationary feature out west just modifying the heat somewhat for the UK from time to time especially further north and west but this is quite a notable dry period with any Atlantic rain bearing features quickly losing their strength as they move into the UK.
  7. phil nw.

    Drought - Summer - 2018?

    A very dry !st half of Summer around these parts. Data taken from the weather station(Met office Approved)at Bablake,Coventry-approx 7 miles south of me -http://www.bablakeweather.co.uk/ June rainfall=7.8mm July to date= trace Not quite a complete drought but the last 7 weeks have been close to it and with little sign of any measurable rainfall in the next 10 days this is becoming quite a notable dry spell. Out of interest Summer 1959, mentioned by Mike in his opening post, recorded 35 days late on ie 14th August until 18th September whereas the famous Summer of 1976 showed 29 days from 20th July until 27th August. Of course 1976 stands out with the period of several days exceeding 32C somewhere every day coupled with the lack of rain.I guess there's still time for such an event here this Summer. I recall the heavens opened around the late August BH in '76 just after the Government had appointed a Minister for drought-immediate success!
  8. Current modelling suggests a resurgence of the azores ridging after a weak encroachment from the Atlantic trough across all areas at the weekend. We can see from the ECM mean charts days 5 and 10 how this is shown to evolve. Certainly for much of England and Wales the heatwave and largely dry conditions doesn't look like ending anytime soon with the start of August looking similar.Some sporadic rain and cooler spells further north and west from occasional weak fronts such as we have now but overall it looks like this remarkable Summer weather will continue to hit the headlines.
  9. Some quite dry and warm Summery weather looks likely over the next 10 days quite widely. A look at the 5 and 10 day ECM mean 500hPa charts shows the jet shifting well north as the Azores high extends across the UK. The London ens. Looking particularly good rising temps,light winds and virtually dry for the the period.Very nice!
  10. This is not the Climate thread, let's keep to current model outputs please. Thanks.
  11. A nice little taste of Summer in the coming week especially Wed/Sat. Ens graph for Warks showing possible 21C on a couple of days and i am sure some favoured locations will peak higher than that. Of course knowing our climate and given that it is only April it's odds on that a change is usually waiting in the wings.Signs from the gefs and ecm of at least a partial breakdown looks likely after next week end as some energy from upstream sneaks through the Azores ridge early in week 2. Still a nice few days to look forward too in the meantime.
  12. Time for a new thread methinks. This one now locked-new one here
  13. Well we are around the halfway point of the Spring season and it seems a good time to start a new thread to continue discussions. A look at the 00z ECM day 4 charts shows that finally some widespread warmth is on the way after the cold,damp and often cloudy conditions of recent weeks. A developing Euro high and a stalling Atlantic trough pushing the jet stream further north and bringing the winds from a warmer south/south westerly direction. A welcome change of pattern for most of us i would think. Ok please continue
  14. Quite a chilly day tomorrow for many. Cloud and rain moving across e.anglia,midlands and wales suppressing readings and with a cool easterly wind blowing off the N.Sea where temperatures are around 5c. The east coast will feel particularly raw from around the wash northwards.As a general comment this is often the case with Spring easterlies and anywhere from say the Aberdeen coast down to the Wash can be affected in these setups often with mizzle,low cloud and single figure temperatures. The situation tomorrow mid-day with the fax,expected temperatures and wind flow direction and mean speeds. In contrast some warmth again creeping into the south east segment under brighter skies also where the wind is lighter.So we could see quite a difference in temperature within a short distances around E.Anglia for example.
  15. Yes Crewe that would be quite a notable upper pool of cold air coming south within that Scandi trough. The 500hPa temperature modeled on this run- lower than -40c for a time- puts it in polar low territory.Snowfall quite possible down to low levels even at that time of year as shown on the precipitation chart. The Arctic air mass would be likely to experience some modification during it's southern track but the far north, particularly the N Isles certainly at risk on that,if it were to come about. Purely for interest at this stage of course.
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