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phil nw.

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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

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About phil nw.

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 when we saw the northern lights.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. The 2 mean ht. anomalies 500 hPa charts for day 10 along with days 6-10 850 hPa temperature anomalies. Similar picture.A trough down the Pacific coast of N.America, Cross polar +ve hts stretching from C.Usa to N.Russia with the Atlantic trough orientated more west -east with a mean west to south west flow into the UK.The Euro ridging showing further east.Temperatures higher than of late.
  2. This time next week both GFS and ECM operational runs have a similar idea as they both show a Euro.ridge developing and some weakening of the UK trough, Some small differences wrt the exact placement of the surface features as could be expected a week out but the overall picture is of a more south westerly flow as the trough weakens and we lose the colder polar maritime feed.
  3. No real change to our wet and unsettled weather through the next few days. The latest T72hrs fax and raw UKMO 500 hPa pattern shows the UK surrounded by surface lows and fronts circulating within a broad upper trough so continuing rather cold especially further north with snowfall quite likely at imes in elevated areas as we continue to sit in a mainly polar maritime air mass. Signs of a change appear around day 6 as all the main models show pressure rising from the south which in consequence has the trough on the retreat- at least for a while. so as we pick up a more south westerly flow we can expect a bit of a warm up with maybe a drier period especially towards the south east.The latter depending on the positioning of the Euro heights of course which will no doubt be determined in a couple of days. London combined ens.
  4. Gefs 500 Pa pattern/anomalies and 850 hPa temp.anomalies days 6-10 and 11-15. The westerly pattern continues but turning milder around day 10 as the flow backs more south west with the Euro ridge building to the east.
  5. The cold front just passing through here in Warks.Fax for 1800hrs note the continuing storm around Iceland with severe winds with the driving snow.Must be horrendous up there.
  6. The gefs not looking too bad,maybe a short warm up but then a return towards around average later next week. These for C.England. Later frames pushing any ridging away to the east.It still looks a mobile pattern,maybe not so strongly but with the mean jet still on a southerly track no sign of blowtorch south westerlies as yet. Still a tendency to Euro.troughing.
  7. Polling day continues to look wet and windy as yet another low develops just west of Ireland stretching it's frontal boundary across the UK. Colder air to the north turning rain to snow across the higher ground of Scotland. The wind chill making it feel bitter up there.
  8. After today's respite things go downhill by the morning as the next low comes in. T24 hr fax for 06 hrs tomorrow and ukv charts for tomorrow evening show the active fronts approaching and the rain and wind connected as they cross the country-note the sharp wind sheer along the cold front.
  9. It's quite noticeable how many regions are above average.This looking at the 850 anomalies across the NH-this for T24hrs off the 06z GFS but running it through the next 7 days shows this trend ongoing. Much of Europe and Russia above at this stage.The UK does have the colder air from the north west to draw on as the lows zip across to the north,however those cold uppers driving into the Atlantic off the Canadian vortex is enhancing the jet.
  10. Essentially an ongoing westerly pattern now with both eps/gefs on the same page by day 10.The ecm mean chart perhaps a little more amplified wrt the Atlantic jet ridging out west and digging the UK trough a little further south. The placement of the bulk of the pv stretched across the north between N.Canada and Norway on both. The overall outlook gives the same result though.With the jet aimed on a more southerly track we will see a fair dose of polar maritime air in the mix for the UK as the frontal systems whip across keeping temperatures often below average with bouts of wind and rain.Some snowfall quite possible in the period mainly over northern high ground but in this setup it can't be ruled out anywhere as colder air cuts in behind weather fronts. The day 6-10 850 anomalies and the London combined ens.
  11. It looks a wild few days as the jet is over us.Strong winds with gusts to gale force are forecasted for places around the UK over the weekend and Tuesday and Thursday from just flicking quickly through the earlier GFS frames. Transient snowfall can't be ruled out as the polar air cuts in behind the cold fronts but most likely as ever over higher levels but you never know with steep lapse rates we could get a brief surprise fall lower down anywhere. A very wild and unsettled week to come though with frequent changes in air mass but never mild for long especially later in the week.
  12. Next Tuesday too as mentioned earlier is still looking interesting as polar air cuts in from the west especially later in the day. An active cold front with notable wind sheer and a sharp thermal boundary. A large drop in 850,s with strong winds and gusts to gale force in places.heavy squally rain as the front comes through turning wintry over higher parts of Scotland.
  13. The latest fax's show the tightening of the isobars as the gales hit Sunday/Monday with more lows queueing up in the Atlantic. The Atlantic +nao Winter pattern in all it's glory.
  14. The 2 xT240hrs mean anomalies 500 hPa NH charts and the days 6-10 mean 850 hPa anomalies for Europe. Pretty similar maybe GFS a little flatter out west but the overall picture of a rather cold west to north west pattern into week 2.
  15. Today's runs promise some very mobile and changeable conditions milder at first and looking colder later next week with a higher chance of snowfall for some up north. Overall though it is difficult to maintain anything other than brief cold shots in such a pattern.Any deeper cold seems held above 60N for much of the time,only slipping south briefly in the rear of passing lows before the next warm front heads in. The only bright note i could end on is that with cold air so close to the north a little extra ridging in the Atlantic would work wonders for snow chances more widely but that's a hope rather than an expectation currently.
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