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phil nw.

Model Forum Host
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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

phil nw. had the most liked content!

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About phil nw.

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 .
    Summer 2011 in July.
    We cruised from Tilbury across the north sea to Norway where we sailed up the coast taking in some ports of call ,These took in some wonderful scenery in the fjords and trips up the mountains.We continued to north cape and then on into the Arctic ocean past bear island and onto the Svalbard islands where we came across part of the polar ice pack.This actually chocked up the inlet to Longyearbyen where we were due to visit.

    It was disappointing that we had to rejig the rest of the schedule but it was amazing to be on deck surrounded by ice flows which had walruses and seals on them.With a clear blue sky and a temp.of 4c it was calm and clear.We had reached the most northerly point of our cruise at 79N.
    Not forgetting experiencing 24hrs day light and the midnight sun!

    We then detoured to the Faeroes which was an alternative to spending the time we couldn't have around Svalbard.
    It turned out to be an enjoyable time.Green islands with high dramatic cliffs as you approached.Trips around the main island reminded me very much of northern Scotland with it's wild moorland and wild flowers and mountain streams.
    March 2013
    A Winter cruise this time,at least it was in Scandinavia, as again we left Tilbury for Norway and another journey taking the fjords and different ports including Thromso.
    This time it was a white landscape all the way north as we crossed the Arctic circle for the second time in less than 3 years.
    We had some enjoyable land excursions sight seeing including the Arctic cathedral in Thromso.Of course the highlight was seeing the northern lights up there.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.

  • Weather Preferences
    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. Good to see a change from this chilly feeling and damp easterly setup as by Tuesday we are all into the milder south westerlies as the Iberian ridging shows it's hand -the change well established by mid-week. Looking further on gfs to day 8 continues with this so although the pv is gradually shrinking,it's still back to business on our side of the pole with a return to our usual Atlantic pattern. Probably it's still too early to see the effect of the spv reversal lower down.I am not wishing a poor Spring by any means but it wouldn't surprise me to see northern blocking become a feature in charts before March is out. CFS for April height anomalies suggest anomalies over Greenland with Atlantic troughing underneath.
  2. Growing up in the 1950s and 60s I was used to more frequent snow and frosts and almost took cold spells as expected events back then. Yes we still had the usual Atlantic weather but it was more bearable then because of the cold interludes. Gradually over recent decades the warming trend has eroded anticipation of our so called Winters now. I have my memories of some great Winters including of course the daddy,1962/3. It is such a shame that the joys of a crisp Winter landscape under a snowy blanket have become almost a rarety now.
  3. Jff T192 ECM Shows there is still very cold air to be had from the NE ,it just needs everything to fall right for us to get it.
  4. ANYWEATHER Not sure what difference to day 5 you refer to AW. Both have similar European pattern?
  5. UKMO T72 The day where the Atlantic is halted and the Scandinavian high is starting to push back. Comparing yesterdays UK 12z the cold pools are less deep approaching the UK as the high orientates more south to north by day 5 It looks like a couple of drier days before the Atlantic lows try to make inroads from the south west as the blocking fades.
  6. A lovely early Spring morning for my walk. Crisp and sunny and I can feel a bit of warmth in that sun now. Plenty of lying water though with the little brook in the fields to our rear flowing swiftly.
  7. We can see that quite early on there is disagreement wrt the orientation of a Scandinavian high.This will influence the chance of any deeper cold pools coming this way. UKMO looks the best for that in the coming week with a visit of -8c uppers from day 5 across the uk with a chance of some snowfall. Chasing these cold pools is always liable to disappointment as a small shift in the pattern will change these at short notice.Still it looks the better outlook for coldies currently as the cold feed is quite a decent fetch from around the high from northern Scandinavia/Russia,the coldest source. On the other models the main thrust of cold heads down into Europe further east in week 1 until we see signs of retrogression in week 2 .ECM by day 10 bringing a cold north easterly--possible as the pv continues to weaken but as we know it's day 10 again. We will have to see if the uk model is on it's own with the colder outlook next week but after this i will be hoping for some brighter and drier weather with a bit of a warmup.
  8. Cloud 10 Yes just about the best solution for the coldest out come now. The heights around Iceland there rather than Scandinavia. We can see those uppers remain less modified by the shorter sea track from Norway.
  9. I think any easterly would need to hold for a number of days to see any meaningful cold pool from the east. We have to remember Eastern Europe is currently Anomalously warm so we would need a long fetch airstream from Russia and it's asking a lot this time of year to get a snowy setup . We need the high to be oriented west to east and this is something yet to be established in the model runs. Our best bet now would be a high towards Iceland or Greenland with a north easterly Continental Arctic sourced flow down through Scandinavia. It's worth sticking with the next few model runs to see what transpires but I think we are in the last chance saloon now for coldies to see any chance of widespread lying snow.
  10. A pattern often seen in early Spring where we start to see blocking appearing further north as the vortex weakens. On this occasion a decent Scandinavian high looks quite possible but not oriented favourably to get the cold from further east. We need the cut back of the jet under the block for anything of cold interest especially this late in the season. As it is we may end up with a milder south east or southerly flow with the UK in between the block and the Atlantic.
  11. Models continue to show a slow moving pattern with further lows dropping in from the north west keeping us rather cold and unsettled. The next attack from the nw showing for Thursday/Friday brings some lower uppers with the rain but any snowfall seems limited to higher levels now, The UK trough continues to be modeled as an ongoing feature,trapped between heights to the east and west. minus10 Yes It seems we are stuck in a rut with this pattern.
  12. Starting to think that this next strat warming could end up with it being the final one. The slow rate of downwelling of the negative zonal winds look like taking us well into March. With the return of the sun across the pole it seems unlikely that much if any recovery of the strat.vortex will occur by then.
  13. bluearmy Yes it's a case of what Iberian ridge Nick. A colder north westerly pattern building up by the looks.Atlantic trough digging deep into Europe and touching N.Africa and the jet well south. The Azores high squeezed south and west.
  14. UKMO view t120 Similar outlook to GFS, as expected, very unsettled through next week with deep lows across the north and a displaced Azores high.Further systems look like heading in from the north Atlantic around the the high as we go further forward.
  15. GFS showing a noticeable change from midweek as we see the jet strengthening and powering towards us. Increasingly unsettled and wet as bands of rain and blustery showers head in.As if we haven't seen enough this month. Becoming colder too as polar maritime air sweeps in from the north west so as already mentioned snowfall likely to be seen at higher levels by the end of the week. A big difference to the feel of things after this prolonged mild period.
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