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phil nw.

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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

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About phil nw.

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    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
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    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 when we saw the northern lights.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.
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    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. A couple of off topic posts have been removed. Casual chat and banter should now be posted into the general winter thread. Model discussions only in here now please. Thanks all.
  2. A little bit of a cool off in week 2 as the warmth from the far south eases with more of an Atlantic influence showing as the upper flow veers towards more of south west to west as the high becomes less amplified. ECM mean for days 5/10 A look at the 2m temperature gefs anomalies for 5 day means from day 1-5 and then 10-14 show the cool off The overall picture though still shows mild for the next 2 weeks with much of any rainfall more likely over western and northern fringes on the periphery of the high. No real change to the polar profile with low heights remaining steadfast to our north right to the end of the Winter quarter.A pretty uneventful mild and quiet period set to bring the curtain down on a pretty nondescript "cold" season.
  3. UkMO and GFS 12z runs look to be repeating the 500 hPa pattern next week after some Atlantic interference over the weekend. Day 6 The return of the Euro high with energy still spilling off the Canadian trough into Mid-Atlantic advecting more sub-tropical air northwards over w.Europe and the UK.Away from the north west it looks another largely dry and mild week with more sunshine and afternoon temperatures well into the teens again.
  4. ECM Op.day 5 shows the Atlantic making temporary inroads early next week as fronts move across as suggested by GFS also but agreement that the Euro heights return pretty quickly afterwards The Atlantic trough continuing to be renewed from the Canadian vortex-a persistent theme of the Winter.
  5. The Euro block for want of a better term remains steadfast in the face of the Atlantic with only the far north west coming under any influence in the next few days. A snapshot of Friday shows plenty of warmth wafting up from the sub tropics bringing afternoon highs well above average across much of Europe and the UK Little changes next week as we view the 5 day mean NH 500 hPa pattern and temperature profiles The mid-Atlantic trough against the Euro block continuing to bring in mild air from the south or south west although the idea of weak fronts crossing the UK is more likely next week with the high retreating temporarily before re-amplifying.
  6. The expected High shows as building in the next few days but the gfs jetstream modeling shows plenty of energy heading across to the north which ultimately flattens the pattern at the end of the coming week. UKMO model showing a similar evolution day 3 and 6 with the 500 hPa charts As expected for this week really with fairly mild and quiet weather in a south westerly flow with signs of the Atlantic affecting the north later.
  7. Yes it was magical Sam.To get as far north as the edge of the Polar ice was something else.
  8. Yes Norway is a beautiful experience anytime of year.
  9. Certainly the eps clusters have backed off Greenland heights compared to 36 hrs ago when i last looked when around 40% was the main cluster for that trend. Latest for days 10 and 15 Plenty of support for an on going Euro/UK high but only around 20% support for any ridging gaining enough traction north or north west to create any possible cold interest.
  10. It makes sense to drop one of the 3 wicket keepers and bring back a so called specialist batsman,especially as Foulkes hasn't capitalised on his run scoring last year.Shame that Woakes isn't playing.
  11. Anyone still got some energy left for one more cold chase? I can understand all the doubts expressed over all this Winter's let downs but i always treat each new situation the same and look at what the outputs say,if they prove wrong then so be it. So a look at tonight's EPS clusters days 12-15 which a small majority cluster favouring a UK High moving nw towards Greenland.Still a decent cluster though for the Euro(milder)pattern. Day 12 day 15 A strong enough signal for a pattern change towards cold in a couple of weeks which are also showing in today's gfs runs so it has some support.We would be looking for low pressure to eventually undercut the high in order to bring in the cold though,something like cluster 3 above. This will not come about in the next week so another few days of model runs before we can start to gain confidence if this will happen. Still let's get this high established first and see where it goes bearing in mind we will likely to see a some milder days first before it(hopefully)moves nw.
  12. Yes the clearance of the Canadian lobe and movement of the main vortex to the Siberian side is what we want to see and is the first part of any future Heights to our nw. Just to add the building sub-tropical ridge is also a key part of it and it can bring a temporary mild interlude before the high goes north and we start to see the change to cold.
  13. Don't despair shaky.Give the sub-tropical ridging a chance to develop.If we are to see a cold block further north it won't happen in the next week or so.
  14. A glance at the MJO forecasts today show better agreement between the 2 ens suites of movement eastwards into phase 8 Decent amplitude in both so let's see if NWP start to trend towards the pattern showing in the climatic composites which is for +ve heights to our nw,similar to the 06z GFS operative run.
  15. These are the MSL pressure ens graphs for the areas we are looking to for height rises Scandinavia or Griceland as expected the ridging towards our ne is more likely in the shorter term.Much uncertainty further on wrt hts rising to our nw.Phase 8 of the mjo would suggest that evolution as we head towards week 3 similar to GFS 06z op run. Hard to say from this range if this will pan out but a trend worth watching for sure.
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