phil nw.

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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

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About phil nw.

  • Birthday 29/08/48

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    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 when we saw the northern lights.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.
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    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. Nice looking charts today with modeling showing the promise of a significant improvement next week. That Siberian upper low still the dominant feature and Sub-Tropical ridging pushing the Atlantic jet further north resulting in a more typical pattern across our part of the world.. We have all had a dose of much needed rain over the last week or so and now the signs of a drier,warmer and sunnier spell with temperatures looking to head in the 20's C.
  2. Yes with the slow moving low just out west next week looks quite unsettled with most of us seeing some showers or rain. The T84hrs fax for Tuesday and the raw UK chart for T120hrs shows the expected picture with the UK under the influence of this upper trough for the coming week. I would think most of us will see some brighter periods but it will be a case of watching the daily forecasts to see where the best conditions may be day on day for outside activities,probably more of an April showers type feel in the coming days. This weather type looks like prevailing into next weekend on current outputs indeed looking at the ECM mean for day 7 shows only slow signs of any improvement as the upper trough takes it's time to move east. There are tentative signs of ridging trying to ease in from the Atlantic going into week 2 but maybe too early to say whether this could develop into a more settled period.
  3. Cancelled golf this morning as the rain arrived just at the wrong time.:-( Now feeling more humid although only 12c currently.Still cloudy and expecting some downpours this afternoon with NW radar showing quite an area of activity around the Wilts./Oxford locale which looks like heading north.
  4. Modeling showing a pattern not uncommon in Spring as the Polar Vortex breaks up. UKMO at T120hrs Everything coming from the east as the bulk of the Vortex situates over the Siberian side leaving a blocking high pressure to our north. A cool easterly flow off the North Sea down the eastern coastal strip with cloudier spells here but looking brighter and somewhat warmer the further west you are.The overall dry conditions seen in April looks like continuing for the next week at least.
  5. It's looking like a rather cool and dry week for many of us. The Atlantic ridge/Scandinavian trough setup has been a pretty consistent message from modeling over the last few days- a couple of images from the ECM mean outputs for day 4 and 7 gives the general outlook. so cool North Atlantic air coming se around the high bringing below normal temperatures but with little rain looking likely so a mainly dry picture quite widely. Usually in this setup we see quite a lot of cloud coming in off the Atlantic and the odd shower or drizzly outbreaks can't be ruled out as weak fronts move down in the flow. Fax for Sunday shows this sort of pattern. All in all not great but with the extra layer or 2 on ok for getting out and about over Easter.
  6. Our pleasant early Spring sunny spell looks like ending by midweek as a complex area of low pressure out in mid-Atlantic sends bands of showery rain up across the country by Wednesday. It doesn't look a complete washout though by any means with sunshine between the showers and temperatures holding up quite well as winds veer around to the south and south west.
  7. It's certainly looking promising for much better weather by the weekend, looking at all 3 main runs, with a building high modeled across the UK. T120 hrs Looking through the ens outputs shows some mid-latitude blocking extending well into next week with a lot of dry weather about. Some variations in the exact orientation of the block within the ens but the general theme of a split jet such as here at t144hrs seems the ongoing outlook. It's doesn't look like being exceptionally mild though with some of the colder air from this week still trapped around the UK so some night frosts later this week as skies clear.Days should feel pleasant enough though in the sun.
  8. Latest UK outputs show the change across the UK to more unsettled weather as the jet moves further south and reinvigorates after the recent quieter spell.. Those are day 3 and 5. A brisk westerly pattern looks like setting now for the next week or so before later outputs suggest the Azores high ridging in again towards later next week.It may well be southern areas miss the worst of the rain as fronts weaken somewhat as they come south. The latest gefs for C.England show little in the way of rain through the next 2 weeks with temperatures never far from average.The far north(2nd image above) though somewhat different where colder air digs in during the next few days bringing more rain and some wintry showers especially on the mountains. A week or so of unsettled and rather colder weather then before signs of something warmer and brighter modeled into week 2.
  9. We are going through a pretty quiet period currently and the next few days continues with a fairly benign outlook,pretty dry away from the far north and quite mild. Looking towards Thursday onwards things do seem set to change as Atlantic mobility picks up again driving fronts across us and bringing in some lower temperatures. Fax for Thursday shows the coming change The high being squeezed away with some unsettled weather for at least a few days,more especially further north closer to the low pressure moving across towards Scandinavia. It's interesting to note the large difference in temperatures between N.Scotland and C.and S.England that are often seen in March either side of the jet. A sharp drop in values as the cold front comes through so likely snow squalls higher up in the north and maybe lower down up there as freezing levels drop behind the passage of the front. With the jet looking like wavering across the UK in the medium term there could be more interest as temperatures and wind direction vary day on day as at this time of year the Arctic cold is still just to our north as it battles with the Azores high for supremacy.
  10. With a spell of tropical maritime air moving NE around the ridging Azores high we are looking at quite a mild and dry few days but with a lot of cloud around. A look at some ECM charts up to Thursday showing the general setup. The middle chart-for Wednesday- currently looks the best for a chance of some of the cloud breaking up with spells of warm sunshine.We could get temperatures in the high teens in some favoured southern locations if this happens i would think. We can already see from the last chart though the approach of fronts from further north which looks like heralding a change to rather colder and more changeable conditions towards the end of the coming week as Icelandic low pressure heads east towards Scandinavia.This change looks more widespread on the UK charts at T144hrs than the other 2 with a sharper dig of the upper trough so the impact of any change is still to be agreed between the big 3 come day 6. although there are tangible signs of some retreat of the Azores high as the jet eases south around next week end.
  11. Yes the recent promise of a visit from the Azores high next week looks like materialising now with some quite pleasant days expected,especially further south. ECM mean charts looking good Maybe less settled at times further north but all in all most of us should see some warm and bright weather at some stage in the next week i should think.
  12. A new thread,and the first of the Spring,to discuss the latest model outputs. Overall for the next few days there appears to be nothing out of the ordinary expected for mid-March with some Azores ridging between the Atlantic weather fronts,shown by today's fax charts. so the usual variations around the temperature norms. and surface conditions with some brighter and warmer interludes between the rain bands. ECM mean though repeating the recent trend of a more pronounced build of the Azores high towards the UK next week,which would bring some quite pleasant conditions more widely,although longevity of this remains uncertain at this range. Let's see what the next few runs indicate for this. Ok then please continue discussions below.
  13. Signs that the jet is set to ease north with milder air moving north through the rest of the week. not completely settled as yet but certainly an improvement after the wet spell over the last couple of weeks.Signs too of the Azores high wanting to build towards us later on. Good to see.