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phil nw.

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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

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About phil nw.

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  • Gender
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    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 when we saw the northern lights.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. Normally the Azores ridging to mid latitudes with a rampant vortex over the pole would not promise much for cold prospects. This is a different scenario though. We have a forecast warming hitting the top of the Stratospheric vortex within a few days. As this filters down the slowing of mean zonal winds will eventually undermine the lower vortex and continuing ridging will head into higher latitudes. Most of our notable cold patterns evolve from Azores ridging into Scandinavia then, as reversal takes hold, regression of heights to Greenland. Yes still speculation by me but the forecasted strength of this warming would imo allow for such a pattern.
  2. Yes it's all looking on course for a Christmas time hit at the top of the vortex as already posted.What we see on day 1 comparing to forecasted day 10 is dramatic as the heat flux filters down from the top and those oranges turn to blue indicating the zonal winds are reversing. I like these graphs as they give a simple overview of the expected slowing and then reversing of the zonal winds at different levels along with wave amplitude and effect on temperature through the vortex. By day 10 on yesterday's forecast at 10 hPa we can already see the squeeze on the vortex from the warmings suggesting the first stage of displacement is underway. Looking at the day 15 GFS06z forecast we can see this progressing well All this time zonal winds lower down will be decreasing so the effects on our 500h Pa pattern will become more evident in NPW in the coming days .I would expect further weakening of the jet and signs of mid-latitude ridges extending further north into higher latitudes.
  3. Yes ECM now showing downwelling of reversal down to 5hPa by 26th S.Comparing todays gefs graph with this ecm data from yesterday they are not far apart with the expected reversal at 10hPa just after Christmas. Day 10(now 9) on the 100hPa chart underlines the Atlantic ridging around Christmas. Of course the unknown is how quickly the drop off in zonal winds filters down to the lowest layers but we should see some real interest in January if these forecasts are correct.
  4. A few posts have been hidden. Please keep discussion around the weather rather than any of the members. Apart from anything else it just takes the thread way off topic. Cheers guys
  5. Yes later eps clusters have around a 3rd going for blocking to our east/north east and a lot of clustering around a split jet pattern over the Atlantic.
  6. Yesterday's ECM T240hrs.data now picking up the start of the zonal winds reversal at the top. The H.Attard site continuing to show a post Christmas reversal from gefs suite. Now in range of both models so we can now monitor progress.
  7. Here's the ECM 850's graph ms clearly the op was milder at day 8 generally ens looking in good agreement.
  8. A look at the overnight GFS/ECM day 10 ens mean hts. so we see the Christmas eve. pattern with +ve ht anomalies across the Arctic with a continuing signal for Atlantic heights extending north towards Greenland.At the same time what looks like a cut off UK low and a weak Atlantic jet flow. The gefs graph for C.England(Warks.) At that stage a north westerly setup looks likely with some rain at times temperatures still around or just below average.
  9. The UK fax's for Saturday 12z and Sunday 00z show fronts pushing into the cold air and taking a number of hours before making headway across the UK.As PM mentioned above some quite inclement weather with some heavy rain ,gusty winds and indeed snow in parts as the battle between the 2 air masses commences. Finally by Sunday pm the UK turning milder as the fronts clear to the north east. and by Monday 00z T72hrs shows the UK into the Atlantic pattern The UK by then expected to be into a south westerly flow and temperatures back to around average,
  10. Thanks I admit I didn't spot that. Looks so similar to the MJO index at a glance. My post removed.
  11. It may look better soon nws if it's later clusters mean anything.Day 10 at the moment maybe just to soon to pick up the hoped for change.
  12. News of the ec46 probably will be more revealing as to which way things may be going. Nothing really catching my eye yet Blue in the day 15 gef set with only weak anomalies plastered everywhere but the eps are at least hinting at something interesting by then. It seems many cold roads( indicators) are heading for around or just after Christmas.We should expect quite a weak Atlantic by then if these signposts are correct(zonal wind forecasts,tropical convection etc).Some reasoning to hope for heights to build further north as any sub-tropical ridging should become more pronounced in a weaker and buckling jet flow. Still at this range we have to say it still speculation.
  13. Just scanning the outputs and there's little of any interest from a cold pov out to day 10 with the onset of the westerlies over the weekend. Something in the eps clusters caught my eye though beyond that with the main group showing a sharp ridging from Iberia north over t he UK an d by day 15 we see this. It could be the start of a move to a Scandi.block with those +ve ht anomalies up there- or it may be transient as the 2 smaller clusters show more of the jet pushing through. A pity we can't see the upstream flow and the polar field but just seeing that small area there are signs of some energy undercut from the Atlantic trough and as we can expect by that stage a slowing down of zonal winds it may develop into something.....
  14. The change to Atlantic weather looks well established by early next week. Tuesday T120hrs sees a strong jet whipping across the Atlantic heading into the UK/NW Europe and down towards the Mediterranean.A large area of low pressure in the E.Atlantic pushing south westerly winds and bands of rain and showers into the UK. This pattern is modeled to the end of the week.The 2 mean charts for next Friday show a fairly typical westerly flow with low pressure continuing to swing this way off the Greenland vortex. So further rain or showers can be expected with temperatures generally not far from the average.
  15. Another cold day tomorrow then we see a change coming in by the weekend.Saturday and the charts for mid-day show frontal systems into the UK bringing rain with them and milder Atlantic air behind. Quite a decent chance of snowfall over higher ground for a time as the rain hits the cold air- shown by the latest medium range NW model. The freezing level quite low ahead of the change rising as the milder air takes over in the south west.