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phil nw.

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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

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About phil nw.

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    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 when we saw the northern lights.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. Now the North Sea doctor (easterly breeze) has kicked in it feels much more comfortable this evening here in Warwickshire.
  2. At last there are just hints from the medium term modeling of a less unsettled period developing next week as the low heights recede somewhat to the north west and the Azores ridging shows up by day 10. The 06z gfs along the same lines Probably the south feeling the benefit more at that stage with something drier but i can't help feeling that the Atlantic influence will still be apparent further north at times.The london rainfall graph flattening out more later on indicating something drier for sure. It does looks better than the remainder of this week as further surface lows continue to affect us all right up to the weekend as the day 5 fax shows. The jet after heading towards the UK for so long finally showing to be moving further north and weakening next week with the effect of the ridging. It will be interesting to see where we go after this as given the time of year with the tpv finally showing signs of receding the easterly modeled on some recent outputs can't be ruled out.The trend for a Scandinavian high is showing again on the 06z gefs Still a chance of a cold easterly there.To be honest as long as we see the ridging developing nearby in some form i would be happy just to see an end to this never ending Atlantic conveyor.
  3. We are still seeing quite a chilly westerly and unsettled pattern for a few more days. This spell looks like turning out to be the coldest this Winter nationwide with quite a few locations seeing snowfall. I know it's not saying a lot and not everyone has seen at least a few flakes but it's the most seasonal feeling period we have had i guess. Thursdays low looks like crossing the centre of the UK and with cold polar air still over us some snow on the northern edge is quite possible again especially higher up. The t60hrs fax After that the trend seems to turn the jet more towards a sw angle as the Euro high starts to exert it's influence with the next quite deep low tracking further north bringing another very windy and wet spell towards the weekend. T120 fax This is likely to bring temperatures more towards average as the sub tropical heights continue to build bringing a less cold flow off the mid-Atlantic. We can see by day 9 on the ECM mean chart that north/south split developing with the flow more south westerly. No great warm up indicated but no suggestion either in the ens.of any real cold as the vortex continues to rule the roost across the Atlantic for the forseeable.There is just the suggestion with that euro high ridging next week that southern areas at least may see some more settled days. Sad to say but all the signs point to an unremarkable end to what has been overall a very poor season for cold lovers.
  4. OK folks going to lock this thread and another is opened here.
  5. A good time for a new thread now we are into the last month of what has so far been a very Atlantic dominated Winter. A new thread but the same old pattern going forwards-at least for the next 10 days. First a glance at mid-week where the GFS 06z run shows a brief spell of high pressure building in but as we know this doesn't last as upstream the Atlantic jet is firing up and ready to flatten the high so by the end of the coming week we see the jet right across us. This then establishes a vigorous westerly set up again and by day 10 modeling shows this well established. gefs jet and ecm mean 500 hPa charts for day 10 so another unsettled spell expected to take us to at least the middle of the month.No doubt with a fair amount of polar air in the mix favoured locations up north,especially over high ground,could well see snowfall. Not great news though for the majority who would like at least one decent snow event before the season is done. The vortex has been a brute this Winter but at some point the vortex will weaken enough to create gaps for heights to extend north because of seasonal warming. The question is but whether it will come soon enough to allow a decent cold shot before it's too late.
  6. Yes our Winters are milder compared to when I was at school in the early 1960's NWS. Snow and frosts more common then much less so now. I posted pretty much the same in the 1986/7 thread. I am sure we will some cold spells in future but the frequency of these becoming less.
  7. It's relentless isn't it Malcoln. The jet firing up again with the sub tropical heights being flattened.
  8. What a Winter or should that be a second Autumn. Lawn needs mowing now I have been waiting for the ground to dry a little. May try tomorrow before more rain comes in Sunday. I think I would happily settle for a dry Bartlett high now if we can't get rid of that purple monster to our north. What a drap, grey wet season this is.
  9. It's been notable how bottled up the Arctic cold has been this season and not just here.It is no consolation I know but a fair portion of mid latitude regions have seen this scenario also, hence warmer temperatures over NA and much of Europe and Scandinavia. Any amplification being quickly overun by a persistent and strong vortex now modeled close to our North again. This being helped by another push from the Pacific ridging. This +NAO/AO pattern does seems well entrenched looking at the ensembles. At some point though as we progress through the next few weeks gaps will appear in the tPV as it weakens with the end of the Polar night. Let's hope we can still get at least one snow event before Spring proper takes over.
  10. I do wonder how much credence we can give to the later frames of the GFS strat modeling. We have seen so many false dawns from this model wrt to zonal wind forecasts this Winter. I think I will get interested when I see the ECM suite coming on board within 10 days. Seaonal slowing down of zonal winds will start to show up anyway as we go into February so there will be more chance of ridging further north.
  11. It is striking how the jet cuts right into Russia. No sign of a Siberian high anywhere near to our east this year. Our only hope of anything wintry rests with transient north westerlies next week. The jet modeled to come further south as the high sinks into Europe. We should see more polar air in the mix as the Atlantic lows whip across to the north. That looks like the best on offer in the next 10 days by the looks of it. This pattern seems never ending and so frustrating for cold lovers as we pass through the heart of our so called Winter.
  12. Just as I feared. The high slipping away and the grey damp Atlantic air takes over - yuk! Thoroughly depressing after a couple of bright days with early frosts.
  13. No surprise at that. Same positive nao/ao pattern. Just a little colder briefly behind passing cold fronts with high pressure close to the south. Models will vary with detail and timings but no sign yet of an end to the basic mobile westerly picture .
  14. Further into next week looks like a bore fest as the high sinks a little. A westerly drift picking up bringing more cloud and little in the way of frosts. The only upside is looks pretty dry away from the far north.
  15. It really is tough for coldies so far this Winter. Again as the latest GFS shows the NH jet flow is so flat with little ridging anywhere keeping the cold bottled up above 60n much of the time.The high will at least give a mostly dry few days with some night frosts and daytime temperatures near normal so at least feeling a bit more seasonal.
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