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phil nw.

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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

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About phil nw.

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 when we saw the northern lights.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. It looks like the downstream Scuero ridging later on cuts off any cold to our ne from heading west.That Siberian lobe is growing nicely but it is some distance away and it needs the ideal angle of flow to get it closer.We have a decent Atlantic pattern but this time it fails further east. All academic at that range of course.In an amplified pattern as you know everything has to fall just right for us.Likely changes will show as we get closer,as usual.
  2. Both decent runs if looking for cold and Wintry prospects.UK model isn't so bad on examination.Just when at T120hrs it looks like the Canadian trough will make inroads east over Greenland the model further inflates the ridge at T144hrs so the trough extends south. Notice now the air getting colder up north as the season advances so meaningful deeper cold now becoming more and more available especially if we get the north easterly.
  3. The lack of warming influences as you put it Interitus has certainly kept the lower vortex under strength at it's core though.Pretty much i think what GP said in his post.
  4. I admit i am no expert and just say what i see.The graph you show does indeed show temperatures dropping but it can be confusing looking at those.For example based on the mean zonal winds data the vortex is weakest around the pole and this appears to be reflected in the temperatures showing some warming at latitudes 80/90N at the lower levels(50hPa)-here t80n_50_2017_merra2.pdf.bce8eab0574394e468c19305369e9fdc.pdf t90n_50_2017_merra2.pdf Anyhow just scanning through the latest data and we see continuing evidence of wave breaking..The Tokyo site shows this has been ongoing since early Autumn with .the obvious effect on the vortex at lower levels. Zonal winds increasing at the top but being neutralised from filtering down to lower levels. According to latest ECM forecasts still the same picture going forwards days 5/10 The blue(negative)readings persisting at high latitudes up to 20hPa -not an official major warming but certainly that vortex has been undermined by the ongoing heat fluxes and looks like it will still be weakened going into December.
  5. The jet is actually running over the top-see the stamps-T168hrs same time. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=3&ech=168 Bear in mind though that is a snapshot of just day 7 just about the peak of the second wave.If you look further on 24/48hrs in the gefs we can see the ridging toppling in various ways.. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=204 The main high cell drifting towards the Azores by then.Not to be taken as gospel by that stage of course but just to clarify what we are seeing.
  6. The 06Z GFS cuts a low across the Atlantic ridge at day 4 as do the other 2 but it still re-amplifies again next week also similar to the ECM and UKMO but not quite as much. A look at the 06z graphs-C.England on the left- then C.Scotland shows the Op is pretty much in the middle of the cluster with the usual up and downs as the colder/milder air masses pass through. We do see GFS often correcting it's sometimes flat bias as we get closer but similarly the ECM can over amplify,especially past day7.The truth is we can't be sure for now which is nearer but they all show a similar theme of Atlantic ridging bringing polar air mainly from the north west over the top.
  7. Nice and friendly now please chaps,thankyou.
  8. A bit of talk earlier around a Greenland blocking high v Atlantic ridge. Out of interest for a short time tomorrow/thursday we do see a Greenland high.We can see the jet split off as the block establishes-the cut off northern arm looping up over the top of Greenland helping too advect the polar south towards the UK. It does fade away and then we see a further attempt at Atlantic ridging next week but see the difference this time No closed off Greenland high this time even at the peak of the wave virtually all the jet energy is held over the top so the wave(ridge) eventually topples. Just to give an idea of the difference between a block and a ridge and the jet flow involved. This pattern though does enable reloads of polar air as long as we lie on the cold side of the Euro trough/Atlantic ridging setup.
  9. No there are no favourites fg but we do try to let discussion flow and that was a bit of humour coupled with model discussion.As long as it doesn't detract from the topic it does no harm now and then. It goes without saying though that this thread is about the model output so just joking and banter without a decent view of the charts in a post is not for here. Ok then on we go.
  10. Looking at day 5 agreement now with the cold front coming down across England/Wales with back edge hill snow quite likely from those charts..Freezing levels dropping quickly to around 300Mtrs.(GFS). would have ready turned the Highlands and N.Pennines white by that time so a couple of cms quite possible over Welsh mountains and the peaks before the drier polar air establishes.Still wintry showers for the nw coasts/hills for a while after though.
  11. Fair play John.I should have made that clear,i knew what i meant as i was showing 500hPa charts.
  12. That's right.The red shows above average pressure up there against climatology but if you follow the isobars(black lines)they show roughly the wind direction.Still plenty of energy flowing south of Greenland. In wztl form compare next to it with a Greenland high from Nov.2010 See how much further north that amplification builds blocking any east-west jet flow forcing it way up to the pole.The core of the strongest +ve anomalies would be much further north over Greenland on the archive chart.As we can see a much different outcome bitter arctic ne winds as i am sure many of us recall. Height anomaly charts are often a good guide showing for example weaker vortex profiles such we have now but they don't on their own show the actual 500hPa patterns.They just indicate whether pressure is higher or lower than normal for the time of year.
  13. I am no expert BW but i read those like you. Another view from the Tokyo site -charts showing the time series of mean zonal wind speeds -with height and the signs of bottom up warming from wave breakings since October. Little wonder the vortex is slower to develop so far.Graphical forecast from the ECM site showing those zonal winds up to mid-levels still not picking up. Back to Tokyo still showing cooling well higher up though I guess the ongoing wave action is keeping a lid on zonal winds currently.Not sure how this originated as MJO very quiet now-mountain torque perhaps?
  14. Yes quite a chilly set karlos,seasonal rather than deeply cold would imagine further north would be quite wintry at times though. The current NH pattern looks like evolving towards a rather cold mobile pattern in week 2 via Atlantic ridging and European troughing so plenty of polar air in the mix as the jet comes south. ECM mean day 9 No signal yet though for a Greenland block just ridging and a north westerly flow over the top.Still as said quite chilly and i dare say hill snow and the odd frost will be on the cards from time to time.
  15. Some differences in the models wrt the mild v cold placements -that area of cold air further north doesn't look like giving way very much over the coming days.Certainly anywhere north of around 60 degrees is in that arctic air. Some fascinating charts from the UKMO this morning. T84hrs fax T96hrs 850's I noticed last night's fax for the same time had the cold further north The fronts and milder air were moving north now latest fax has the cold still easing south-the whole low complex modelled a bit further south. Subtle differences in all the models with chances of snowfall anywhere from the highlands in the far north to maybe as far south as the Scottish borders depending where the battle zone between the air masses ends up. Certainly an interesting week coming up as these "battle zones" over the UK are not too common with wide differences in temperatures north to south.
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