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phil nw.

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phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

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About phil nw.

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 when we saw the northern lights.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow then clear and frosty.

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  1. Just a little something for any new comers to chart viewing and to the term blocking high. The NW xtra jet stream charts show how the block sees the Atlantic jet stream gradually slow and weaken near the UK and then is steered well north around the Scandinavian high. Compare today and then over the coming few days. A bit like a river or steam hitting a big rock with the flow diverted.This set up would be of great interest for cold lovers later on in the year as this sort of pattern can block out the mild Atlantic influence and instead bring us cold easterly winds around the south of the high,hence the reference made earlier why this would be an interesting outlook in Winter.
  2. A warmer feeling day today as at last we now have winds from a more southerly part of the Atlantic. Modelling now developing a quite persistent Blocking high over the Scandinavian area for the next week or 10 days so we may well see day to day variations on an east/west battle between the stalling Atlantic and the orientation of the high with fronts trying to move into the UK against the block.We can see this situation arising over the next 48hrs as frontal systems struggle across the country. A look at the general 500hPa forecast for days 5 and 10 from the ECM mean charts. shows the expected outlook with the pattern taking us into October.It would certainly raise interest in Winter as others have said but at this time of year it will bring some late warmth into some areas,further south especially, with temperatures quite possibly into the 20'sC. Much depends really on the influence of the Atlantic with western and north western areas at times seeing less settled and cooler weather.
  3. As tonight's low Aileen passes across the UK and east towards Denmark it produces quite a cool down for many parts of Europe over the next few days as a Northerly wind on it's rear flank digs south into the continent. Low teens in the early afternoon quite well south into C.Europe by day 3. Quite a change for many down there i would imagine with any real heat confined to the Costas by then by the looks.Quite an early cool down this year from that Euro trough,more of an October feel perhaps.
  4. Hurricane Irma

    It amazes me how they plant some of the live reporters in really wild conditions.Earlier one guy was nearly blown off his feet on one of the Keys and another was braving Hurricane force gusts and flooded Ocean Drive,both bravely clutching on to their microphones.One had what looked like swimming goggles on as the wind and horizontal rain lashed into him. They certainly go all out to bring the flavour of the conditions.
  5. The GEFS Euro Temp.anomalies for the next 6 days show the effect of this unsettled west/North westerly pattern with the air sourced from the North Atlantic/Iceland area. Day 3 and 5 from the latest GFS op run showing this pattern The Azores high just moving in towards the weekend which looks like cutting off the cooler air as winds drop off.Daytime should feel warmer but with the payoff of colder nights,possible fog in places.
  6. Hurricane Irma

    For anyone at home CNN seem to be showing continual coverage of Irma-between the breaks that is-.Reporters from various locations around Florida.
  7. Hurricane Irma

    The latest NAM run shows the approach of Irma towards Florida coast 18hrs today Into Sunday and by the evening latest projections show it moving north through the state,looks to have deepened on it's short hop from Cuba. and finally 06hrs Monday link.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090906&fh=1 With that track and and still with plenty of vigour it will cause widespread disruption/damage,a very concerning 2/3 days ahead.
  8. Hurricane Irma

    A further off topic post has been removed. Please pm if you wish to continue a personal exchange,this is not the platform for such an exchange. Thank you.
  9. Yes it does look like an ongoing trend for the mid-month rise in pressure Frosty.It will be a welcome change from this early onset of cool and unsettled weather that we are now experiencing nationwide. Further low pressure moving across the north will extend this chilly and showery spell until later next week.The 3 main models show a similar pattern for next Wednesday before,hopefully, pressure starts to build in slowly from the west as the Azores high ridges towards southern parts. This is the GFS take on things,note single figure temps.quite widely at mid-day. so a definite chill in the air reminding us of the changing of the seasons. The ECM mean for day 10,does indeed look promising,especially further south. Hopefully we will see something of a day time warm up from that high pressure following this damp and cool few days.
  10. Fantastic achievement by Jimmy,can now be called England's greatest bowler. Just watching now and the ball still beating the bat time after time.Broad is now bowling much better this spell,deserves something from this.
  11. A mid-month Atlantic high toppling in seems the favoured option on current modelling. As SM pointed we can expect a much fresher and cooler feel from that nw wind So an early chill in the air with temperatures dropping quite low at night in some places.
  12. It was more difficult than normal today.i believe many top players would have struggled. Definitely a bowlers day.
  13. When it swings that much though any batsman,whatever their nationality,will struggle.
  14. It's been a while since we have had a day with the ball swinging so much in a test. Great spell by Stokes but both sides found batting very difficult with ball often moving late in it's flight so no wonder the low scores.Even with bad weather around it's hard to see this ending up drawn the way wickets are tumbling.
  15. As already been pointed out by other members, a very unsettled looking weekend to come- based on current modelling. Details will likely change somewhat wrt tack/development of this low but all main runs show a fairly deep one situated close to Scotland by the coming weekend. The UKMO and ECM charts A more detailed look with the GFS charts for next Saturday which appears to be the stormier of the 3 developing a secondary centre south of the main low and runs it across Scotland,tightening the isobars further. Note the strong jet streak at appox 200mph from the sharp temperature contrasts aloft.The first real cold air coming south from the Greenland shelf meeting the sub-tropical air of the south Atlantic. We are likely to see deeper lows than this as the season progresses i dare say but even so this would be notable for so early in September.The first Autumn storm with strong winds,possible gale force gusts and heavy rain moving through the UK.