Jump to content

phil nw.

Model Forum Host
  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


phil nw. last won the day on July 13 2012

phil nw. had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

13,927 Exceptional


About phil nw.

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location
    Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Interests
    Weather watching(of course),golf,keeping fit and active and watching most sports,music,,reading,photography and traveling.
    I managed to achieve my ambition to see the Arctic.Got to visit twice in fact- Summer 2011 and March 2013 when we saw the northern lights.
    We also rode in a sleigh pulled by a team of huskies along the frozen landscape near Alta in Lapland.Visited the ice hotel as well. A great experience.All that lovely powder snow covering the landscape was magical.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow then clear and frosty.

Recent Profile Visitors

30,192 profile views
  1. A number of off topic posts have been removed. If you wish to thank someone for a post the like button is there for that purpose or of course you can pm. Model discussion only in here please everyone. Btw there are threads for general chat Inc. Cold spell and the ramps thread amongst many others. Onwards...
  2. Incredible aren't they Nick i mean looking at the gefs 850s and 2mt temps -15C and sub-zero daytime surface max's early March??.To see that mid-Winter would be eye catching they are something else !
  3. Remarkable outputs for cold especially given the lateness of the season.It just shows with the right pattern would can be achieved even in March. Both GFS/UKMO charts show the unusual depth of cold engulfing the UK by Monday-day 3 now! UK charts here for t72hrs you could not have a better angled feed from Arctic Siberia than that.Perfect alignment south west into W.Europe and the UK with -16C uppers already touching Kent with that large area of cold pooling waiting to come in through Tuesday/Wednesday. Look at T120hrs and the expected strength of that easterly across us That wind chill will be severe and biting,add in the now probable snow bands for many areas through the week because of the deep convection then what an astounding period we are in for by the looks of it. I have seen all the severe spells since 62/3 and this as it looks now will equal and possibly exceed many of them for severity even if not longevity. Winter model watching doesn't get better than this!
  4. We are still removing posts.A lot are just general chit chit about the BBC forecasts,past snow events and one liners,none of which belong here. It's late and the team have been working overtime-voluntary i may add-to keep some semblance of order in the thread. Please keep to model discussions in here and use the cold spell or ramp thread for general chat. Thanks all.
  5. Looking very interesting towards the end of next week with that developing mid-atlantic trough heading east towards Europe under the block. the ecm had the same idea this would produce an elongated frontal zone running west to east around the channel/N.France trying to move north against the cold block over the UK. We could see a tremendous battleground snow event across us from this with such a large temperature difference across the boundary layers. Quite a feasible evolution as the block to the north starts to drift further west.This is the point where our expected severe cold spell comes under attack. Looking at the day 10 mean charts the cold may well hang on a while longer -this possibly more likely on the ecm with it's deeper cold upper trough. The polar vortex now pushed completely over to the Siberian side by this time remains our source of cold from the NE with the mean jet still running to our south.Without the strong influence of the block though we look like relying on a cold Scandi trough to gently feed the cold this way and with all the cyclonic activity there will inevitably be some modification of the upper cold. The next stage is whether the block moving away will retain enough influence to keep us on the north side of the cold Atlantic/Euro trough after days 9/10 as the warmth from the south tries to push north. Certainly looking bitter next week and now with increasing chances of quite widespread snow especially later in the week if that push from the south verifies.
  6. Morning all☺️ Solid outputs again for the onset of the real cold from around Monday. Unfortunately a couple of posts have been removed. Met office stuff has it's own thread, only your views in here please all. Thanks.
  7. That was a phenomenal ECM. Easterly then north easterly as the Canadian vortex is first pushed aside then is forced around the top of the block to join with the Siberian sector and then the whole shooting mmatch heads towards Scandinavia and Europe at the end. Of course it's only for fun beyond day 5 but shows what is possible with such a dramatic warming and the typical evolution of a Scandinavian high moving west or north west towards Greenland as the clockwise movement of the shredded vortex continues. In the short term early Monday sees the Russian cold hit the east coast and spread west through the following 24hrs. UK T96hrs UK T120hrs Let there be no doubt next Monday for the real cold to arrive has been bookmarked in modelling for some days now. The gefs are showing the 12z op was a notable mild run from 1st March -these for C.England 2m temp.on the right(second image) with such deep cold running across the warmer North sea there is every chance of minor troughs/disturbances developing in the flow next week but there is no point in speculating further on snowfall until much closer to the introduction of the deeper cold. There is certainly nothing to be downbeat if you are a coldie with the best synoptics on view for years and indeed the block is already forming with a continental chill already in the air.Time to prepare the real deal coming our way in only 5 days!
  8. Unfortunately more off topic stuff has been removed, mostly one liners. Please everyone keep it around the charts and sensible. As Jo. said earlier we have many non members reading this. We have some amazing outputs on view let us all help to keep this discussion informative and enjoyable. Be polite to each other. Thank you ☺️
  9. I am with you all and enjoying the outputs which we rarely see. The ECM op tonight is a perfect illustration of what happens when the second warming wave pulses north and destroys the Canadian vortex -day 4 then by day 7 we see the pattern start to regress later we see the evolution to a Greenland high so a bitter easterly by next Monday followed by a bitter Northerly later next week-you can't get much better. Getting very interesting now ain't it? Please though keep the ramping,gifs,BBC temps forecasts and assorted one liners to the right threads.We continue to remove off topic stuff which does get tiresome. I get the excitement in some quarters but please save the team some work as well as keeping the thread sensible and informative for members and visitors alike. Thanks all.
  10. Having been away for a while it's good to return to my favourite hobby and see that the much anticipated cold period is getting close now in modeling terms. By Thursday-day 4 the change to an easterly flow is showing across the 3 main operationals. All have a similar evolution of an Azores high moving ne across the UK by Tuesday and then towards Scandinavia so by T96hrs when we see this across the models. so starting to feel colder as that wind picks up but this is just the starter. I like the follow up period after this on the mean charts this evening. On those It looks like the following 2/3 days will see the Canadian vortex taking a hit as it recoils back west under further warm air advection.The high then orientates more favourable and we start to see the reverse flow underneath as deeper cold comes west into the UK around day 8 This further pulse of warmth into that Canadian vortex is key as it sees the high establish to the north in the following days and ensures any Atlantic attacks can only go to the south of the UK. See by day 10- on the means charts again- the end result BY this time bitter cold across Europe and into the UK on a stiff easterly flow.The Upper cold pool across the se and near continent would surely create snow chances quite widely. Something along these lines would bring a classic easterly setup rarely seen these days.
  11. Now is a good time to follow developments. Day 5 /6 on both UK and ECM runs looking fascinating.A stubborn block to the NE and a stalling Atlantic something has to give eventually-which will win?.Note how the Atlantic trough retracts at T120 as the Azores high re-inflates the Scandi.Ridging. The uppers are irrelevant at this early stage-it's the possible later evolution that is interesting.That wont be decided tonight.
  12. The team are having to remove some off topic content which should be in other threads. In busy times we can't always msg everyone involved so if you find your post has gone then take it that was deemed off topic.General chat/banter,met office outlooks,snow memories of yesteryear etc just clog the thread up. We do try and let discussion flow within reason but posts with no sensible content based on outputs are not for here. Please help to keep this thread useful and enjoyable for us all by keeping to views around the charts. Ok thanks all- onwards we go.
  13. Today's runs show that the developing heights to the east will hang around for the foreseeable which in conjuction with a stalling Atlantic makes for some interesting outputs to come. The period around 11/12th Jan.seems the next pivotal time to future prospects,it's around this period when the Azores high again ridges ne just as the first high to the east starts to weaken. The UKMO seems the most positive on this I can certainly see the possible evolution from there in time to an easterly but current modeling is still lacking enough trough disruption se into Europe in the shorter term but the possibility remains further on. A look at the day 8 ECM mean chart for example indicates further trough extension into S.Europe still with an evenly split energy flow but a tweak more into the southern arm would be a big step towards a stronger high to the ne and deeper low pressure under the block.Below average 850hPa temperatures are shown across days 6-10 feeding se into Europe. The eps clusters are pretty evenly split with this stalling setup from day 6 so no clear path can be determined with confidence so we just have to consider the options available. Even if the fabled easterly doesn't appear the alternative remains quite wintery with some cold polar maritime air extending from the north west so not a bad outlook overall.
  14. Early tomorrow and the Net Weather MR model shows the complex low sinking away south taking it's damp and cloudy weather of today with it. we then see the cold air sink south right down the country after frosts for many overnight. Sunday is looking much brighter in the crisp and cold air.Afternoon temperatures ranging from 5/7C down south to below freezing in parts of Scotland which by now sees uppers around -8/-9C. Frost setting in early Sunday evening but as we go overnight into Monday we can see the warmer air originally from the Med. heading north across the channel as the high starts to slip away eastwards.The earlier frost already gone from much of C. and S.England/Wales. so a drier and quite cold 2/3 days with some sharp frosts and Winter sunshine to come before by Monday we just see signs of a slow and perhaps a stuttering change from the west,but that is for another time.
  15. A fair summary i think. A lot of uncertainty beyond day 5 showing in the ens. we can see, obviously reflected in the MO data by the sounds of things.Stubborn +ve heights further east and and trough disruption expected as it reaches the UK.We find ourselves in the middle. This wont be resolved overnight or indeed perhaps for a few days imo.